General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. What is less clear is the extent to which local (s...

/pdf/downscaling-general-circulation-model-output-a-review-of-2wkqyp0se8.pdf

Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations

Drought modeling-A review

Natural disasters do not affect people equally. In fact, a vulnerability approach to disasters would suggest that inequalities in exposure and sensitivity to risk as well as inequalities in access to resources, capabilities, and opportunities systematically disadvantage certain groups of people, rendering them more vulnerable to the impact of natural disasters. In this article we address the specific vulnerability of girls and women with respect to mortality from natural disasters and their aftermath. Biological and physiological differences between the sexes are unlikely to explain large-scale gender differences in mortality rates. Social norms and role behaviors provide some further explanation, but what is likely to matter most is the everyday socioeconomic status of women. In a sample of up to 141 countries over the period 1981 to 2002 we analyze the effect of disaster strength and its interaction with the socioeconomic status of women on the change in the gender gap in life expectancy. We fi...

/pdf/the-gendered-nature-of-natural-disasters-the-impact-of-3fkjka7063.pdf

The Gendered Nature of Natural Disasters: The Impact of Catastrophic Events on the Gender Gap in Life Expectancy, 1981–2002

Despite the significant attention paid by tourism academics and practitioners to sustainable tourism development in recent years, there has been a consistent failure within the tourism literature t...

Tourism and Sustainable Development: Exploring the Theoretical Divide

Abstract Natural disasters do not affect people equally. In fact, a vulnerability approach to disasters would suggest that inequalities in exposure and sensitivity to risk as well as inequalities in access to resources, capabilities, and opportunities systematically disadvantage certain groups of people, rendering them more vulnerable to the impact of natural disasters. In this article we address the specific vulnerability of girls and women with respect to mortality from natural disasters and their aftermath. Biological and physiological differences between the sexes are unlikely to explain large-scale gender differences in mortality rates. Social norms and role behaviors provide some further explanation, but what is likely to matter most is the everyday socioeconomic status of women. In a sample of up to 141 countries over the period 1981 to 2002 we analyze the effect of disaster strength and its interaction with the socioeconomic status of women on the change in the gender gap in life expectancy. We find, first, that natural disasters lower the life expectancy of women more than that of men. In other words, natural disasters (and their subsequent impact) on average kill more women than men or kill women at an earlier age than men. Since female life expectancy is generally higher than that of males, for most countries natural disasters narrow the gender gap in life expectancy. Second, the stronger the disaster (as approximated by the number of people killed relative to population size), the stronger this effect on the gender gap in life expectancy. That is, major calamities lead to more severe impacts on female life expectancy (relative to that of males) than do smaller disasters. Third, the higher women's socioeconomic status, the weaker is this effect on the gender gap in life expectancy. Taken together our results show that it is the socially constructed gender-specific vulnerability of females built into everyday socioeconomic patterns that lead to the relatively higher female disaster mortality rates compared to men.

http://www.gdnonline.org/resources/SSRN_Neumayer_Plumper_GenderedNature_NaturalDisasters.pdf

The Gendered Nature of Natural Disasters: The Impact of Catastrophic

A linear reluctance motor for the drive of rail transportation means which includes a primary part whose coils are fed with a.c. power while its secondary part is constructed rail-like, is arranged parallel to the track and is fixedly installed on the ground; the secondary part is thereby in the form of a toothed rack of ferromagnetic material whereby the primary part produces a magnetic field traveling cyclically in a direction opposite the drive direction and cooperating with the toothed rack.

The North Atlantic Oscillation and British Isles climate variability, 1865–1996

Future climate change scenarios suggest enhanced temporal and spatial gradients in water resources across the UK. Provision of seasonal forecast statistics for surface climate variables could alleviate some negative effects of climate change on water resource infrastructure. This paper presents a preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal relationships between large-scale North Atlantic climatic indices, drought severity and river flow anomalies in England and Wales. Potentially useful predictive relationships are explored between winter indices of the Polar–Eurasian (POL) teleconnection pattern, the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), and the summer Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and reconstructed river flows in England and Wales. Correlation analyses, coherence testing and an index of forecast potential, demonstrate that preceding winter values of the POL index, SSTA (and to a lesser extent the NAO), provide indications of summer and early autumn drought severity and river flow anomalies in parts of northwest, southwest and southeast England. Correlation analyses demonstrate that positive winter anomalies of T1, POL index and NAO index are associated with negative PDSI (i.e. drought) across eastern parts of the British Isles in summer ( r< 0.51). Coherence tests show that a positive winter SSTA (1871–1995) and POL index (1950–95) have preceded below-average summer river flows in the northwest and southwest of England and Wales in 70 to 100% of summers. The same rivers have also experienced below-average flows during autumn following negative winter phases of the NAO index in 64 to 93% of summers (1865–1995). Possible explanations for the predictor–predictand relationships are considered, including the ‘memory’ of groundwater, and ocean–atmosphere coupling, and regional manifestations of synoptic rainfall processes. However, further research is necessary to increase the number of years and predictor variables from which it is possible to derive rules that may be useful for forecasting. Copyright  2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of summer drought and low river flow anomalies in England and Wales

A review of slum housing policies in Mumbai

Few hurricane impact studies provide robust spatial parameters of damage or relate geographical patterns of destruction accurately to storm trajectories or agencies. A detailed spatial analysis is, therefore, presented of the destruction caused by tropical hurricane 07B which made landfall on 6/7 November 1996 over the Godavari Delta region, Andhra Pradesh, eastern India. Patterns of destruction by storm surge, wind and flood water are quantitatively mapped for death tolls, house destruction and agricultural damage using local administrative (mandal) data bases. Results show that most impact occurred near the coast, but a well-defined path of destruction across the central part of the delta can be identified. Such mapping studies fail to indicate the types of individuals and social groups most affected by the storm hazard and their response to it. An investigation of landowning farmers, female migrant rural labourers and fishing communities in the delta shows that poverty and social ordering in Indian society puts differential limits on the risk reduction abilities of individuals and social groups in the face of the cyclone hazard. The paper also demonstrates that ‘top down’ institutional measures to reduce the effects of storm damage such as those introduced in the aftermath of hurricane 07B, including early storm warning and evacuation procedures and rehabilitation programmes, remain largely ineffective. It is suggested that the introduction of more ‘bottom up’ community-based programmes which seek to improve the risk awareness and risk avoiding abilities of affected individuals and groups would be much more beneficial. The case material on hurricane 07B and its effects are placed in context by reviewing and updating long and medium-term time series records of storm frequencies and impacts in the Bay of Bengal and particularly along the eastern coastline of India.

Hurricane 07B in the Godavari Delta, Andhra Pradesh, India: vulnerability, mitigation and the spatial impact

Landslides in the city of La Paz, Bolivia are complex in space and time. Their distribution within the city is differentiated by geographical variations in slope gradient, the nature of overlying surface deposits, and drainage density patterns. When mapped, the distribution of the most landslide-prone locations in the city coincides with the most mobile surface deposits on the higher and steeper slopes of the city. The timing of landslides is triggered when slope materials become saturated with moisture by rainfall, stream water, water seepage from high surrounding water tables, and from domestic sources. Landslide frequencies over the last 40 years show the role of inter-annual variations in summer rainfalls, especially the late summer period (Jan–Mar), and rising water tables connected to Lake Titicaca. Associations with ENSO events, both warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina), prove negative, pointing to the importance of moisture sources from the north, south and east (Amazon) but not from the west (Pacific). The most vulnerable group exposed to the landslide hazard comprise the inhabitants of the self-built informal housing areas who occupy the more elevated steeper slopes of the northern part of the city. But societal vulnerability to earth movement in the city is widespread and interconnected. Higher income groups in the southern part of the city are affected by slower, if less dramatic, forms of land failure, and rich housing in downstream areas of the city are impacted by flash flooding encouraged by deforestation on the northern hill slopes where the poor live. Two case studies highlight the vulnerability and plight of the inhabitants of the self-built settlements in the aftermath of a major landslide, and a brief discussion of hazard mitigation and the importance of building hazard resilient communities concludes the paper.

Greg O'Hare

Papers

The North Atlantic Oscillation and British Isles climate variability, 1865–1996

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of summer drought and low river flow anomalies in England and Wales

A review of slum housing policies in Mumbai

Hurricane 07B in the Godavari Delta, Andhra Pradesh, India: vulnerability, mitigation and the spatial impact

The landslide hazard and human vulnerability in La Paz City, Bolivia