Evaluating the effect of persistence on long-term trends and analyzing step changes in streamflows of the continental United States

A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana

Sustainable utilization of water resources in China: A system dynamics model

The carbon footprint of water management policy options

The state-of-the-art system dynamics application in integrated water resources modeling.

Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system.

A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China

Laboratory study on the factors affecting hydraulic fracturing effect for inter-salt oil shale layers, Qianjiang Depression, China

Loess sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to reconstruct fire history and human activities. The Tarim Basin is bordered to the south by the Kunlun Mountains, where eolian silt or loess is extensive and has continued to be deposited in modern times. In this study, we conducted multiple analyses of a 720 cm–thick loess section (KLA) at 3,516 m elevation in the Kunlun Mountains to reconstruct the middle Holocene vegetation history in northern China. Our palynological, charcoal, and grain-size data reveal a slightly drying trend with notable moisture fluctuations in the Kunlun highland since ∼4.9 kyr (1 kyr = 1,000 cal yr BP). At approximately 4.1, 2.0, and 1.0 kyr, the climate became more arid; the intervals of 4.0–3.2, 2.4–1.9 and 0.7–0.5 kyr were relatively wet periods. Some sand activity phases in the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert are recorded around 4.0–3.5, 2.5–2.3, and 1.2–0.7 kyr. Stronger human activities commenced at approximately 2.0 kyr. On the basis of sedimentary charcoal concentrations and regional paleoclimatic and archaeological records, we propose that micro charcoal (<50 μm) originated from the Tarim Basin, reflecting human activity in the basin. Macro charcoal (>50 μm) is suitable for reconstructing Kunlun highland fire events. We suggest that increased anthropogenic activities such as agriculture, construction, and wars played an important role in land degradation and abandonment of ancient cities in the southern Tarim Basin. Our results provide new insights into the role of humans in the ecological evolution of inland arid areas in China during the middle Holocene.

Guangyang Wu

Papers

A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China

Laboratory study on the factors affecting hydraulic fracturing effect for inter-salt oil shale layers, Qianjiang Depression, China

Charcoal in Kunlun Mountains loess: Implications for environment change and human activity during the middle Holocene