A freely available dataset produced from three million Landsat satellite images reveals substantial changes in the distribution of global surface water over the past 32 years and their causes, from climate change to human actions. The distribution of surface water has been mapped globally, and local-to-regional studies have tracked changes over time. But to date, there has been no global and methodologically consistent quantification of changes in surface water over time. Jean-Francois Pekel and colleagues have analysed more than three million Landsat images to quantify month-to-month changes in surface water at a resolution of 30 metres and over a 32-year period. They find that surface waters have declined by almost 90,000 square kilometres—largely in the Middle East and Central Asia—but that surface waters equivalent to about twice that area have been created elsewhere. Drought, reservoir creation and water extraction appear to have driven most of the changes in surface water over the past decades. The location and persistence of surface water (inland and coastal) is both affected by climate and human activity1 and affects climate2,3, biological diversity4 and human wellbeing5,6. Global data sets documenting surface water location and seasonality have been produced from inventories and national descriptions7, statistical extrapolation of regional data8 and satellite imagery9,10,11,12, but measuring long-term changes at high resolution remains a challenge. Here, using three million Landsat satellite images13, we quantify changes in global surface water over the past 32 years at 30-metre resolution. We record the months and years when water was present, where occurrence changed and what form changes took in terms of seasonality and persistence. Between 1984 and 2015 permanent surface water has disappeared from an area of almost 90,000 square kilometres, roughly equivalent to that of Lake Superior, though new permanent bodies of surface water covering 184,000 square kilometres have formed elsewhere. All continental regions show a net increase in permanent water, except Oceania, which has a fractional (one per cent) net loss. Much of the increase is from reservoir filling, although climate change14 is also implicated. Loss is more geographically concentrated than gain. Over 70 per cent of global net permanent water loss occurred in the Middle East and Central Asia, linked to drought and human actions including river diversion or damming and unregulated withdrawal15,16. Losses in Australia17 and the USA18 linked to long-term droughts are also evident. This globally consistent, validated data set shows that impacts of climate change and climate oscillations on surface water occurrence can be measured and that evidence can be gathered to show how surface water is altered by human activities. We anticipate that this freely available data will improve the modelling of surface forcing, provide evidence of state and change in wetland ecotones (the transition areas between biomes), and inform water-management decision-making.

High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes

The projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatially explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003/pdf

Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Annual maps of global artificial impervious area (GAIA) between 1985 and 2018

Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.

Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world

Progress in urban climate science is severely restricted by the lack of useful information that describes aspects of the form and function of cities at a detailed spatial resolution. To overcome this shortcoming we are initiating an international effort to develop the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) to gather and disseminate this information in a consistent manner for urban areas worldwide. The first step in developing WUDAPT is a description of cities based on the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) scheme, which classifies natural and urban landscapes into categories based on climate-relevant surface properties. This methodology provides a culturally-neutral framework for collecting information about the internal physical structure of cities. Moreover, studies have shown that remote sensing data can be used for supervised LCZ mapping. Mapping of LCZs is complicated because similar LCZs in different regions have dissimilar spectral properties due to differences in vegetation, building materials and other variations in cultural and physical environmental factors. The WUDAPT protocol developed here provides an easy to understand workflow; uses freely available data and software; and can be applied by someone without specialist knowledge in spatial analysis or urban climate science. The paper also provides an example use of the WUDAPT project results.

https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/4/1/199/pdf

Mapping local climate zones for a worldwide database of the form and function of cities

A general framework for processing high and very-high resolution imagery in support of a Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) is presented together with a discussion on the results of the first operational test of the production workflow. The test involved the mapping of 24.3 million km2 of the Earth surface spread in four continents, corresponding to an estimated population of 1.3 billion people in 2010. The resolution of the input image data ranges from 0.5 to 10 meters, collected by a heterogeneous set of platforms including satellite SPOT (2 and 5), CBERS 2B, RapidEye (2 and 4), WorldView (1 and 2), GeoEye 1, QuickBird 2, Ikonos 2, and airborne sensors. Several imaging modes were tested including panchromatic, multispectral and pan-sharpened images. A new fully automatic image information extraction, generalization and mosaic workflow is presented that is based on multiscale textural and morphological image features extraction. New image feature compression and optimization are introduced, together with new learning and classification techniques allowing for the processing of HR/VHR image data using low-resolution thematic layers as reference. A new systematic approach for quality control and validation allowing global spatial and thematic consistency checking is proposed and applied. The quality of the results are discussed by sensor, band, resolution, and eco-regions. Critical points, lessons learned and next steps are highlighted.

Guo Huadong

Papers

A Global Human Settlement Layer From Optical HR/VHR RS Data: Concept and First Results

Remote sensing of urbanization dynamics along the Belt and Road