This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model.

/pdf/online-short-term-solar-power-forecasting-1ljgpbshkb.pdf

Online Short-term Solar Power Forecasting

We present an algorithm for the finite element simulation of elastoplastic solids which is capable of robustly and efficiently handling arbitrarily large deformation. In fact, our model remains valid even when large parts of the mesh are inverted. The algorithm is straightforward to implement and can be used with any material constitutive model, and for both volumetric solids and thin shells such as cloth. We also provide a mechanism for controlling plastic deformation, which allows a deformable object to be guided towards a desired final shape without sacrificing realistic behavior. Finally, we present an improved method for rigid body collision handling in the context of mixed explicit/implicit time-stepping.

/pdf/invertible-finite-elements-for-robust-simulation-of-large-uy1u8f7sae.pdf

Invertible finite elements for robust simulation of large deformation

Progress and recent trends in wind energy

http://www.ana.iusiani.ulpgc.es/proyecto0708/pdfnuevo/sustmfinal.pdf

Simultaneous untangling and smoothing of tetrahedral meshes

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Advances in engineering software

https://accedacris.ulpgc.es/jspui/bitstream/10553/45234/1/Automatic_strategy_adaptive_tetrahedral.pdf

An automatic strategy for adaptive tetrahedral mesh generation

http://www.dca.iusiani.ulpgc.es/proyecto0204/pdf/S2002_13.pdf

Genetic algorithms for an improved parameter estimation with local refinement of tetrahedral meshes in a wind model

This paper presents a new procedure to improve the quality of triangular meshes defined on surfaces. The improvement is obtained by an iterative process in which each node of the mesh is moved to a new position that minimizes a certain objective function. This objective function is derived from algebraic quality measures of the local mesh (the set of triangles connected to the adjustable or free node). If we allow the free node to move on the surface without imposing any restriction, only guided by the improvement of the quality, the optimization procedure can construct a high-quality local mesh, but with this node in an unacceptable position. To avoid this problem the optimization is done in the parametric mesh, where the presence of barriers in the objective function maintains the free node inside the feasible region. In this way, the original problem on the surface is transformed into a two-dimensional one on the parametric space. In our case, the parametric space is a plane, chosen in terms of the local mesh, in such a way that this mesh can be optimally projected performing a valid mesh, that is, without inverted elements. Several examples and applications presented in this work show how this technique is capable of improving the quality of triangular surface meshes. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Gustavo Montero

Papers

Simultaneous untangling and smoothing of tetrahedral meshes

An automatic strategy for adaptive tetrahedral mesh generation

Genetic algorithms for an improved parameter estimation with local refinement of tetrahedral meshes in a wind model

An algebraic method for smoothing surface triangulations on a local parametric space

A 3-D diagnostic model for wind field adjustment