世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

While incidence and mortality rates for most cancers (including lung, colorectum, female breast, and prostate) are decreasing in the United States and many other western countries, they are increasing in several less developed and economically transitioning countries because of adoption of unhealthy western lifestyles such as smoking and physical inactivity and consumption of calorie-dense food. Indeed, the rates for lung and colon cancers in a few of these countries have already surpassed those in the United States and other western countries. Most developing countries also continue to be disproportionately affected by cancers related to infectious agents, such as cervix, liver, and stomach cancers. The proportion of new cancer cases diagnosed in less developed countries is projected to increase from about 56% of the world total in 2008 to more than 60% in 2030 because of the increasing trends in cancer rates and expected increases in life expectancy and growth of the population. In this review, we describe these changing global incidence and mortality patterns for select common cancers and the opportunities for cancer prevention in developing countries.

https://cebp.aacrjournals.org/content/cebp/19/8/1893.full.pdf

Global Patterns of Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates and Trends

BACKGROUND The prevalence of smoking has decreased substantially in the United States over the past 30 years. We examined the extent of the person-to-person spread of smoking behavior and the extent to which groups of widely connected people quit together. METHODS We studied a densely interconnected social network of 12,067 people assessed repeatedly from 1971 to 2003 as part of the Framingham Heart Study. We used network analytic methods and longitudinal statistical models. RESULTS Discernible clusters of smokers and nonsmokers were present in the network, and the clusters extended to three degrees of separation. Despite the decrease in smoking in the overall population, the size of the clusters of smokers remained the same across time, suggesting that whole groups of people were quitting in concert. Smokers were also progressively found in the periphery of the social network. Smoking cessation by a spouse decreased a person's chances of smoking by 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 59 to 73). Smoking cessation by a sibling decreased the chances by 25% (95% CI, 14 to 35). Smoking cessation by a friend decreased the chances by 36% (95% CI, 12 to 55 ). Among persons working in small firms, smoking cessation by a coworker decreased the chances by 34% (95% CI, 5 to 56). Friends with more education influenced one another more than those with less education. These effects were not seen among neighbors in the immediate geographic area. CONCLUSIONS Network phenomena appear to be relevant to smoking cessation. Smoking behavior spreads through close and distant social ties, groups of interconnected people stop smoking in concert, and smokers are increasingly marginalized socially. These findings have implications for clinical and public health interventions to reduce and prevent smoking.

/pdf/the-collective-dynamics-of-smoking-in-a-large-social-network-1fycqm978o.pdf

The collective dynamics of smoking in a large social network.

The importance of peer effects, cigarette prices and tobacco control policies for youth smoking behavior.

Regret may be a key variable in understanding the experience of smokers, the vast majority of whom continue to smoke while desiring to quit. We present data from the baseline wave (October–December 2002) of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey, a random-digit-dialed telephone survey of a cohort of over 8,000 adult smokers across four countries—Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia—to estimate the prevalence of regret and to identify its predictors. The proportion of smokers who agreed or agreed strongly with the statement ‘‘If you had to do it over again, you would not have started smoking’’ was extremely high—about 90%— and nearly identical across the four countries. Regret was more likely to be experienced by older smokers, women, those who had tried to quit more often, those who perceived quitting as conferring benefits, those with higher levels of perceived addiction, those who worried about future damage to health, those who perceived smoking as lowering their quality of life, those who perceived higher monetary costs of smoking, and those who believed that smoking is not socially acceptable. This predictive model was the same in all four countries. Regret is thus a near-universal experience among smokers in all four countries, and the factors that predict regret are universal across these four countries. Among other implications for cessation treatment and smoking prevention, this near universality of regret casts doubt on the view of some policy analysts and economists that the decisions to take up and continue smoking are welfare-maximizing for the consumer.

The near-universal experience of regret among smokers in four countries: findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey.

Prior economic research provides mixed evidence on the impact of cigarette prices on youth smoking. This paper empirically tests the effects of various price measures on youth demand for cigarettes using data collected in a recent nationally representative survey of 17 287 high school students. In addition to commonly used cigarette price measures, the study also examined the effect of price as perceived by the students. This unique information permits the study of the effect of teen-specific price on cigarette demand. The analysis employed a two-part model of cigarette demand based on a model developed by Cragg (1971) in which the propensity to smoke and the intensity of the smoking habit are modeled separately. The results confirm that higher cigarette prices, irrespective of the way they are measured, reduce probability of youth cigarette smoking. There is also some evidence of negative price effect on smoking intensity, but it is sensitive to the price measure used in the model. The largest impact on cigarette demand has the teen-specific, perceived price of cigarettes.

/pdf/the-effect-of-cigarette-prices-on-youth-smoking-1bahmwcyku.pdf

The effect of cigarette prices on youth smoking.

Objectives: With the male smoking prevalence near 60% in 1991, Thailand was one of the first Asian nations to implement strict tobacco control policies. However, the success of their efforts has not been well documented. Methods: The role of tobacco control policies are examined using the “SimSmoke” tobacco control model. We first validated the model against survey data on smoking prevalence. We then distinguished the effect of policies implemented between 1991 and 2006 from long-term trends in smoking rates. We also estimated smoking attributable deaths and lives saved as a result of the policies. Results: The model validates well against survey data. The model shows that by the year 2006, policies implemented between 1991 and 2006 had already decreased smoking prevalence by 25% compared to what it would have been in the absence of the policies. Tax increases on cigarettes and advertising bans had the largest impact, followed by media anti-smoking campaigns, clean air laws and health warnings. The model estimates that the policies saved 31 867 lives by 2006 and will have saved 319 456 lives by 2026. Conclusions: The results document the success of Thailand in reducing smoking prevalence and reducing the number of lives lost to smoking, thereby showing the potential of tobacco control policies specifically in a middle-income country. Additional improvements can be realised through higher taxes, stronger clean air policies, comprehensive cessation treatment policies, and targeted media campaigns.

https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/tobaccocontrol/17/1/53.full.pdf

The role of tobacco control policies in reducing smoking and deaths in a middle income nation: results from the Thailand SimSmoke simulation model

Aims To examine the importance of cigarette prices in influencing smoking cessation and the motivation to quit.



Design  We use longitudinal data from three waves of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey (ITC). The study contrasts smoking cessation and motivation to quit among US and Canadian smokers and evaluates how this relationship is modified by cigarette prices, nicotine dependence and health knowledge. Different price measures are used to understand how the ability to purchase cheaper cigarettes may reduce the influence of prices. Our first model examines whether cigarette prices affect motivation to quit smoking using Generalized Estimating Equations to predict cessation stage and a least squares model to predict the change in cessation stage. The second model evaluates quitting behavior over time. The probability of quitting is estimated with Generalized Estimating Equations and a transition model to account for the ‘left-truncation’ of the data.



Settings  US and Canada.



Participants  4352 smokers at Wave 1, 2000 smokers completing all three waves.



Measurements  Motivation to quit, cigarette prices, nicotine dependence and health knowledge.



Findings  Smokers living in areas with higher cigarette prices are significantly more motivated to quit. There is limited evidence to suggest that price increases over time may also increase quit motivation. Higher cigarette prices increase the likelihood of actual quitting, with the caveat that results are statistically significant in one out of two models. Access to cheaper cigarette sources does not impede cessation although smokers would respond more aggressively (in terms of cessation) to price increases if cheaper cigarette sources were not available.



Conclusions  This research provides a unique opportunity to study smoking cessation among adult smokers and their response to cigarette prices in a market where they are able to avoid tax increases by purchasing cigarettes from cheaper sources. Higher cigarette prices appear to be associated with greater motivation to stop smoking, an effect which does not appear to be mitigated by cheaper cigarette sources. The paper supports the use of higher prices as a means of encouraging smoking cessation and motivation to quit.

/pdf/do-cigarette-prices-motivate-smokers-to-quit-new-evidence-3tljo1meu2.pdf

Hana Ross

Papers

The importance of peer effects, cigarette prices and tobacco control policies for youth smoking behavior.

The near-universal experience of regret among smokers in four countries: findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey.

The effect of cigarette prices on youth smoking.

The role of tobacco control policies in reducing smoking and deaths in a middle income nation: results from the Thailand SimSmoke simulation model

Do cigarette prices motivate smokers to quit? New evidence from the ITC survey.