Detailed analysis of Global Positioning System data from Japan's Geospatial Information Authority network provides a record of coseismic and postseismic slip distribution on the megathrust fault where the magnitude-9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake occurred on 11 March 2011. The coseismic slip area stretches some 400 kilometres along the Japan trench, matching the area of the preseismic locked zone. Afterslip is now overlapping the coseismic slip area and expanding into the surrounding regions. The authors conclude that such geodetic data could help to improve the forecasting of earthquake potential along other subduction zones. In the accompanying News & Views, Jean-Philippe Avouac discusses current models for assessing seismic hazard. Most large earthquakes occur along an oceanic trench, where an oceanic plate subducts beneath a continental plate. Massive earthquakes with a moment magnitude, Mw, of nine have been known to occur in only a few areas, including Chile, Alaska, Kamchatka and Sumatra. No historical records exist of a Mw = 9 earthquake along the Japan trench, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the Okhotsk plate, with the possible exception of the ad 869 Jogan earthquake1, the magnitude of which has not been well constrained. However, the strain accumulation rate estimated there from recent geodetic observations is much higher than the average strain rate released in previous interplate earthquakes2,3,4,5,6. This finding raises the question of how such areas release the accumulated strain. A megathrust earthquake with Mw = 9.0 (hereafter referred to as the Tohoku-Oki earthquake) occurred on 11 March 2011, rupturing the plate boundary off the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. Here we report the distributions of the coseismic slip and postseismic slip as determined from ground displacement detected using a network based on the Global Positioning System. The coseismic slip area extends approximately 400 km along the Japan trench, matching the area of the pre-seismic locked zone4. The afterslip has begun to overlap the coseismic slip area and extends into the surrounding region. In particular, the afterslip area reached a depth of approximately 100 km, with Mw = 8.3, on 25 March 2011. Because the Tohoku-Oki earthquake released the strain accumulated for several hundred years, the paradox of the strain budget imbalance may be partly resolved. This earthquake reminds us of the potential for Mw ≈ 9 earthquakes to occur along other trench systems, even if no past evidence of such events exists. Therefore, it is imperative that strain accumulation be monitored using a space geodetic technique to assess earthquake potential.

Coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2011 magnitude-9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

Subduction zone plate boundary megathrust faults accommodate relative plate motions with spatially varying sliding behavior. The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman (M_w 9.2), 2010 Chile (Mw 8.8), and 2011 Tohoku (M_w 9.0) great earthquakes had similar depth variations in seismic wave radiation across their wide rupture zones – coherent teleseismic short-period radiation preferentially emanated from the deeper portion of the megathrusts whereas the largest fault displacements occurred at shallower depths but produced relatively little coherent short-period radiation. We represent these and other depth-varying seismic characteristics with four distinct failure domains extending along the megathrust from the trench to the downdip edge of the seismogenic zone. We designate the portion of the megathrust less than 15 km below the ocean surface as domain A, the region of tsunami earthquakes. From 15 to ∼35 km deep, large earthquake displacements occur over large-scale regions with only modest coherent short-period radiation, in what we designate as domain B. Rupture of smaller isolated megathrust patches dominate in domain C, which extends from ∼35 to 55 km deep. These isolated patches produce bursts of coherent short-period energy both in great ruptures and in smaller, sometimes repeating, moderate-size events. For the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the sites of coherent teleseismic short-period radiation are close to areas where local strong ground motions originated. Domain D, found at depths of 30–45 km in subduction zones where relatively young oceanic lithosphere is being underthrust with shallow plate dip, is represented by the occurrence of low-frequency earthquakes, seismic tremor, and slow slip events in a transition zone to stable sliding or ductile flow below the seismogenic zone.

http://authors.library.caltech.edu/31607/1/Lay2012p18168J_Geophys_Res-Sol_Ea.pdf

Depth‐varying rupture properties of subduction zone megathrust faults

In this paper, I propose the scaling relation W = C 1 L β (where β ≈2/3) to describe the scaling of rupture width with rupture length. I also propose a new displacement relation ![Graphic][1] , where A is the area ( LW ). By substituting these equations into the definition of seismic moment (![Graphic][2] ), I have developed a series of self-consistent equations that describe the scaling between seismic moment, rupture area, length, width, and average displacement. In addition to β , the equations have only two variables, C 1 and C 2, which have been estimated empirically for different tectonic settings. The relations predict linear log–log relationships, the slope of which depends only on β .\n\nThese new scaling relations, unlike previous relations, are self-consistent, in that they enable moment, rupture length, width, area, and displacement to be estimated from each other and with these estimates all being consistent with the definition of seismic moment. I interpret C 1 as depending on the size at which a rupture transitions from having a constant aspect ratio to following a power law and C 2 as depending on the displacement per unit area of fault rupture and so static stress drop. It is likely that these variables differ between tectonic environments; this might explain much of the scatter in the empirical data.\n\nI suggest that these relations apply to all faults. For small earthquakes ( M ∼5) earthquakes β =2/3, so L 2.5 applies. For dip-slip earthquakes this scaling applies up to the largest events. For very large ( M >∼7.2) strike-slip earthquakes, which are fault width-limited, β =0 and assuming ![Graphic][3] , then L 1.5 scaling applies. In all cases, M ∝ A 1.5 fault scaling applies.\n\n [1]: /embed/inline-graphic-1.gif\n [2]: /embed/inline-graphic-2.gif\n [3]: /embed/inline-graphic-3.gif

Earthquake Fault Scaling: Self-Consistent Relating of Rupture Length, Width, Average Displacement, and Moment ReleaseEarthquake Fault Scaling: Self-Consistent Relating of Rupture Length, Width, Average Displacement

Subduction zones produce the largest earthquakes. Over the past two decades, space geodesy has revolutionized our view of crustal deformation between consecutive earthquakes. The short time span of modern measurements necessitates comparative studies of subduction zones that are at different stages of the deformation cycle. Piecing together geodetic 'snapshots' from different subduction zones leads to a unifying picture in which the deformation is controlled by both the short-term (years) and long-term (decades and centuries) viscous behaviour of the mantle. Traditional views based on elastic models, such as coseismic deformation being a mirror image of interseismic deformation, are being thoroughly revised.

/pdf/deformation-cycles-of-subduction-earthquakes-in-a-4qjxwcj2pi.pdf

Deformation cycles of subduction earthquakes in a viscoelastic Earth

The great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 was a dramatic reminder of the importance of understanding the seismic and tsunami hazards of subduction zones [1,2,3,4]. In March 2005, the Sunda megathrust ruptured again, producing an event [5] of moment magnitude (Mw) 8.6 south of the 2004 rupture area, which was the site of a similar event in 1861 (ref. 6). Concern was then focused on the Mentawai area, where large earthquakes had occurred in 1797 (Mw = 8.8) and 1833 (Mw = 9.0) [6,7]. Two earthquakes, one of Mw = 8.4 and, twelve hours later, one of Mw = 7.9, indeed occurred there on 12 September 2007. Here we show that these earthquakes ruptured only a fraction of the area ruptured in 1833 and consist of distinct asperities within a patch of the megathrust that had remained locked in the interseismic period. This indicates that the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different patterns depending on whether asperities break as isolated seismic events or cooperate to produce a larger rupture. This variability probably arises from the influence of non-permanent barriers, zones with locally lower pre-stress due to the past earthquakes. The stress state of the portion of the Sunda megathrust that had ruptured in 1833 and 1797 was probably not adequate for the development of a single large rupture in 2007. The moment released in 2007 amounts to only a fraction both of that released in 1833 and of the deficit of moment that had accumulated as a result of interseismic strain since 1833. The potential for a large megathrust event in the Mentawai area thus remains large.

/pdf/partial-rupture-of-a-locked-patch-of-the-sumatra-megathrust-1xgp4l4zfy.pdf

Partial rupture of a locked patch of the Sumatra megathrust during the 2007 earthquake sequence

We determine coseismic and the first-month postseismic deformation associated with the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 from near- field Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys in northwestern Sumatra and along the Nicobar-Andaman islands, continuous and campaign GPS measurements from Thailand and Malaysia, and in situ and remotely sensed observations of the vertical motion of coral reefs. The coseismic model shows that the Sunda subduction mega- thrust ruptured over a distance of about 1500 km and a width of less than 150 km, releasing a total moment of 6.7-7.0 � 10 22 N m, equivalent to a magnitude M w 9.15. The latitudinal distribution of released moment in our model has three distinct peaks at about 4 N, 7 N, and 9 N, which compares well to the latitudinal variations seen in the seismic inversion and of the analysis of radiated T waves. Our coseismic model is also consistent with interpretation of normal modes and with the amplitude of very-long-period surface waves. The tsunami predicted from this model fits rela- tively well the altimetric measurements made by the JASON and TOPEX satellites. Neither slow nor delayed slip is needed to explain the normal modes and the tsunami wave. The near-field geodetic data that encompass both coseismic deformation and up to 40 days of postseismic deformation require that slip must have continued on the plate interface after the 500-sec-long seismic rupture. The postseismic geodetic moment of about 2.4 � 10 22 Nm( Mw 8.8) is equal to about 30 � 5% of the coseismic moment release. Evolution of postseismic deformation is consistent with rate-strengthening frictional afterslip. Online material: Summary of geodetic data used in this study.

/pdf/coseismic-slip-and-afterslip-of-the-great-mw-9-15-sumatra-5abvxr88yb.pdf

Helene Hebert

Papers

Coseismic Slip and Afterslip of the Great Mw 9.15 Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake of 2004