The history of the development of statistical hypothesis testing in time series analysis is reviewed briefly and it is pointed out that the hypothesis testing procedure is not adequately defined as the procedure for statistical model identification. The classical maximum likelihood estimation procedure is reviewed and a new estimate minimum information theoretical criterion (AIC) estimate (MAICE) which is designed for the purpose of statistical identification is introduced. When there are several competing models the MAICE is defined by the model and the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters which give the minimum of AIC defined by AIC = (-2)log-(maximum likelihood) + 2(number of independently adjusted parameters within the model). MAICE provides a versatile procedure for statistical model identification which is free from the ambiguities inherent in the application of conventional hypothesis testing procedure. The practical utility of MAICE in time series analysis is demonstrated with some numerical examples.

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A new look at the statistical model identification

In this article, we provide guidance for substantive researchers on the use of structural equation modeling in practice for theory testing and development. We present a comprehensive, two-step modeling approach that employs a series of nested models and sequential chi-square difference tests. We discuss the comparative advantages of this approach over a one-step approach. Considerations in specification, assessment of fit, and respecification of measurement models using confirmatory factor analysis are reviewed. As background to the two-step approach, the distinction between exploratory and confirmatory analysis, the distinction between complementary approaches for theory testing versus predictive application, and some developments in estimation methods also are discussed.

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Structural equation modeling in practice: a review and recommended two-step approach

Discriminant validity assessment has become a generally accepted prerequisite for analyzing relationships between latent variables. For variance-based structural equation modeling, such as partial least squares, the Fornell-Larcker criterion and the examination of cross-loadings are the dominant approaches for evaluating discriminant validity. By means of a simulation study, we show that these approaches do not reliably detect the lack of discriminant validity in common research situations. We therefore propose an alternative approach, based on the multitrait-multimethod matrix, to assess discriminant validity: the heterotrait-monotrait ratio of correlations. We demonstrate its superior performance by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study, in which we compare the new approach to the Fornell-Larcker criterion and the assessment of (partial) cross-loadings. Finally, we provide guidelines on how to handle discriminant validity issues in variance-based structural equation modeling.

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A new criterion for assessing discriminant validity in variance-based structural equation modeling

Structural equation modeling (SEM) has become a quasi-standard in marketing and management research when it comes to analyzing the cause-effect relations between latent constructs. For most researchers, SEM is equivalent to carrying out covariance-based SEM (CB-SEM). While marketing researchers have a basic understanding of CB-SEM, most of them are only barely familiar with the other useful approach to SEM-partial least squares SEM (PLS-SEM). The current paper reviews PLS-SEM and its algorithm, and provides an overview of when it can be most appropriately applied, indicating its potential and limitations for future research. The authors conclude that PLS-SEM path modeling, if appropriately applied, is indeed a "silver bullet" for estimating causal models in many theoretical models and empirical data situations.

PLS-SEM: Indeed a Silver Bullet

Any series of observations ordered along a single dimension, such as time, may be thought of as a time series. The emphasis in time series analysis is on studying the dependence among observations at different points in time. What distinguishes time series analysis from general multivariate analysis is precisely the temporal order imposed on the observations. Many economic variables, such as GNP and its components, price indices, sales, and stock returns are observed over time. In addition to being interested in the contemporaneous relationships among such variables, we are often concerned with relationships between their current and past values, that is, relationships over time.

Time Series Analysis

Soft modelling: The Basic Design and Some Extensions

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Herman Wold

Papers

Soft modelling: The Basic Design and Some Extensions

Partial Least Squares

A study in the analysis of stationary time series

Systems under indirect observation : causality, structure, prediction

Causal flows with latent variables: Partings of the ways in the light of NIPALS modelling