Credit scoring is an effective tool for banks to properly guide decision profitably on granting loans. Ensemble methods, which according to their structures can be divided into parallel and sequential ensembles, have been recently developed in the credit scoring domain. These methods have proven their superiority in discriminating borrowers accurately. However, among the ensemble models, little consideration has been provided to the following: (1) highlighting the hyper-parameter tuning of base learner despite being critical to well-performed ensemble models; (2) building sequential models (i.e., boosting, as most have focused on developing the same or different algorithms in parallel); and (3) focusing on the comprehensibility of models. This paper aims to propose a sequential ensemble credit scoring model based on a variant of gradient boosting machine (i.e., extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)). The model mainly comprises three steps. First, data pre-processing is employed to scale the data and handle missing values. Second, a model-based feature selection system based on the relative feature importance scores is utilized to remove redundant variables. Third, the hyper-parameters of XGBoost are adaptively tuned with Bayesian hyper-parameter optimization and used to train the model with selected feature subset. Several hyper-parameter optimization methods and baseline classifiers are considered as reference points in the experiment. Results demonstrate that Bayesian hyper-parameter optimization performs better than random search, grid search, and manual search. Moreover, the proposed model outperforms baseline models on average over four evaluation measures: accuracy, error rate, the area under the curve (AUC) H measure (AUC-H measure), and Brier score. The proposed model also provides feature importance scores and decision chart, which enhance the interpretability of credit scoring model.

A boosted decision tree approach using Bayesian hyper-parameter optimization for credit scoring

The efficiency of a transport system depends on several elements, such as available technology, governmental policies, the planning process, and control strategies. Indeed, the interaction between these elements is quite complex, leading to intractable decision making problems. The planning process and real-time control strategies have been widely studied in recent years, and there are several practical implementations with promising results. In this paper, we review the literature on Transit Network Planning problems and real-time control strategies suitable to bus transport systems. Our goal is to present a comprehensive review, emphasizing recent studies as well as works not addressed in previous reviews.

Planning, operation, and control of bus transport systems: A literature review

Recent developments in consumer credit risk assessment

Accurate assessment of undrained shear strength (USS) for soft sensitive clays is a great concern in geotechnical engineering practice. This study applies novel data-driven extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and random forest (RF) ensemble learning methods for capturing the relationships between the USS and various basic soil parameters. Based on the soil data sets from TC304 database, a general approach is developed to predict the USS of soft clays using the two machine learning methods above, where five feature variables including the preconsolidation stress (PS), vertical effective stress (VES), liquid limit (LL), plastic limit (PL) and natural water content (W) are adopted. To reduce the dependence on the rule of thumb and inefficient brute-force search, the Bayesian optimization method is applied to determine the appropriate model hyper-parameters of both XGBoost and RF. The developed models are comprehensively compared with three comparison machine learning methods and two transformation models with respect to predictive accuracy and robustness under 5-fold cross-validation (CV). It is shown that XGBoost-based and RF-based methods outperform these approaches. Besides, the XGBoost-based model provides feature importance ranks, which makes it a promising tool in the prediction of geotechnical parameters and enhances the interpretability of model.

Prediction of undrained shear strength using extreme gradient boosting and random forest based on Bayesian optimization

Dynamic classifier selection

Benchmarking state-of-the-art classification algorithms for credit scoring: An update of research

The efficiency of the hotel industry in Singapore

This paper considers solving a biobjective urban transit routing problem with a genetic algorithm approach. The objectives are to minimize the passengers’ and operators’ costs where the quality of the route sets is evaluated by a set of parameters. The proposed algorithm employs an adding-node procedure which helps in converting an infeasible solution to a feasible solution. A simple yet effective route crossover operator is proposed by utilizing a set of feasibility criteria to reduce the possibility of producing an infeasible network. The computational results from Mandl’s benchmark problems are compared with other published results in the literature and the computational experiments show that the proposed algorithm performs better than the previous best published results in most cases.

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Genetic Algorithm for Biobjective Urban Transit Routing Problem

Deep learning has substantially advanced the state of the art in computer vision, natural language processing, and other fields. The paper examines the potential of deep learning for exchange rate forecasting. We systematically compare long short-term memory networks and gated recurrent units to traditional recurrent network architectures as well as feedforward networks in terms of their directional forecasting accuracy and the profitability of trading model predictions. Empirical results indicate the suitability of deep networks for exchange rate forecasting in general but also evidence the difficulty of implementing and tuning corresponding architectures. Especially with regard to trading profit, a simpler neural network may perform as well as if not better than a more complex deep neural network.

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Forex exchange rate forecasting using deep recurrent neural networks

Problem statement: The Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) is a well-known combinatorial optimization problem which is concerned with the distribution of goods between the depot and customers. It is of economic importance to businesses as approximately 10-20% of the final cost of the goods is contributed by the transportation process. Approach: This problem was tackled using an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) combined with heuristic approaches that act as the route improvement strategies. The proposed ACO utilized a pheromone evaporation procedure of standard ant algorithm in order to introduce an evaporation rate that depends on the solutions found by the artificial ants. Results: Computational experiments were conducted on benchmark data set and the results obtained from the proposed algorithms shown that the application of combination of two different heuristics in the ACO had the capability to improve the ants’ solutions better than ACO embedded with only one heuristic. Conclusion: ACO with swap and 3-opt heuristic has the capability to tackle the CVRP with satisfactory solution quality and run time. It is a viable alternative for solving the CVRP.

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Hsin-Vonn Seow

Papers

Benchmarking state-of-the-art classification algorithms for credit scoring: An update of research

The efficiency of the hotel industry in Singapore

Genetic Algorithm for Biobjective Urban Transit Routing Problem

Forex exchange rate forecasting using deep recurrent neural networks

Ant Colony Optimization for Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem