Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

The 2008 crash has left all the established economic doctrines - equilibrium models, real business cycles, disequilibria models - in disarray. Part of the problem is due to Smith’s "veil of ignorance": individuals unknowingly pursue society’s interest and, as a result, have no clue as to the macroeconomic effects of their actions: witness the Keynes and Leontief multipliers, the concept of value added, fiat money, Engel’s law and technical progress, to name but a few of the macrofoundations of microeconomics. A good viewpoint to take bearings anew lies in comparing the post-Great Depression institutions with those emerging from Thatcher and Reagan’s economic policies: deregulation, exogenous vs. endoge- nous money, shadow banking vs. Volcker’s Rule. Very simply, the banks, whose lending determined deposits after Roosevelt, and were a public service became private enterprises whose deposits determine lending. These underlay the great moderation preceding 2006, and the subsequent crash.

The Economic Institutions of Capitalism

Praise for the Third Edition: "This is one of the best books available. Its excellent organizational structure allows quick reference to specific models and its clear presentation . . . solidifies the understanding of the concepts being presented."IIE Transactions on Operations EngineeringThoroughly revised and expanded to reflect the latest developments in the field, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, Fourth Edition continues to present the basic statistical principles that are necessary to analyze the probabilistic nature of queues. Rather than presenting a narrow focus on the subject, this update illustrates the wide-reaching, fundamental concepts in queueing theory and its applications to diverse areas such as computer science, engineering, business, and operations research.This update takes a numerical approach to understanding and making probable estimations relating to queues, with a comprehensive outline of simple and more advanced queueing models. Newly featured topics of the Fourth Edition include:Retrial queuesApproximations for queueing networksNumerical inversion of transformsDetermining the appropriate number of servers to balance quality and cost of serviceEach chapter provides a self-contained presentation of key concepts and formulae, allowing readers to work with each section independently, while a summary table at the end of the book outlines the types of queues that have been discussed and their results. In addition, two new appendices have been added, discussing transforms and generating functions as well as the fundamentals of differential and difference equations. New examples are now included along with problems that incorporate QtsPlus software, which is freely available via the book's related Web site.With its accessible style and wealth of real-world examples, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, Fourth Edition is an ideal book for courses on queueing theory at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners who analyze congestion in the fields of telecommunications, transportation, aviation, and management science.

Fundamentals of Queueing Theory

This is the latest updated volume in a well-established series bringing together information from a variety of sources to estimate national unit costs for a wide range of health and social care services. This report consists of tables for more than 130 types of service which, as well as providing the most detailed and comprehensive information possible, also quotes sources and assumptions so users can adapt the information for their own purposes. This year we have included a guest editorial on ‘Big Data’: increasing productivity while reducing costs in health and social care and three short articles on The cost of integrated care; Shared lives – improving understanding of the costs of family-based support and the costs of providing a group intervention to people with dementia and their family carers:SHIELD: RYCT & CSP intervention costs (Remembering Yesterday Caring Today and Carer Support Programme). There are also several new schema providing the costs of: advocacy for people with learning disabilities; a hospice rapid response service; the early years classroom management programme; residential parenting assessments; independent review officers; time banks; dentists and care home costs for people with dementia. The 2014 edition is also available in full, free of charge, at the PSSRU website www.pssru.ac.uk/unit-costs/2014/ as an Acrobat file.

Unit Costs of Health and Social Care 2014

Three perspectives on the efficacy of social capital have been explored in the public health literature. A "social support" perspective argues that informal networks are central to objective and subjective welfare; an "inequality" thesis posits that widening economic disparities have eroded citizens' sense of social justice and inclusion, which in turn has led to heightened anxiety and compromised rising life expectancies; a "political economy" approach sees the primary determinant of poor health outcomes as the socially and politically mediated exclusion from material resources. A more comprehensive but grounded theory of social capital is presented that develops a distinction between bonding, bridging, and linking social capital. It is argued that this framework helps to reconcile these three perspectives, incorporating a broader reading of history, politics, and the empirical evidence regarding the mechanisms connecting types of network structure and state-society relations to public health outcomes.

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Health by association? Social capital, social theory, and the political economy of public health

BACKGROUND In 2004, after a series of national initiatives associated with marked improvements in the quality of care, the National Health Service of the United Kingdom introduced a pay-for-performance contract for family practitioners. This contract increases existing income according to performance with respect to 146 quality indicators covering clinical care for 10 chronic diseases, organization of care, and patient experience. METHODS We analyzed data extracted automatically from clinical computing systems for 8105 family practices in England in the first year of the pay-for-performance program (April 2004 through March 2005), data from the U.K. Census, and data on characteristics of individual family practices. We examined the proportion of patients deemed eligible for a clinical quality indicator for whom the indicator was met (reported achievement) and the proportion of the total number of patients with a medical condition for whom a quality indicator was met (population achievement), and we used multiple regression analysis to determine the extent to which practices achieved high scores by classifying patients as ineligible for quality indicators (exception reporting). RESULTS The median reported achievement in the first year of the new contract was 83.4 percent (interquartile range, 78.2 to 87.0 percent). Sociodemographic characteristics of the patients (age and socioeconomic features) and practices (size of practice, number of patients per practitioner, age of practitioner, and whether the practitioner was medically educated in the United Kingdom) had moderate but significant effects on performance. Exception reporting by practices was not extensive (median rate, 6 percent), but it was the strongest predictor of achievement: a 1 percent increase in the rate of exception reporting was associated with a 0.31 percent increase in reported achievement. Exception reporting was high in a small number of practices: 1 percent of practices excluded more than 15 percent of patients. CONCLUSIONS English family practices attained high levels of achievement in the first year of the new pay-for-performance contract. A small number of practices appear to have achieved high scores by excluding large numbers of patients by exception reporting. More research is needed to determine whether these practices are excluding patients for sound clinical reasons or in order to increase income.

Pay-for-Performance Programs in Family Practices in the United Kingdom

The absolute income hypothesis—that holding other factors constant, the higher an individual's income the better is their health—is supported by a considerable body of evidence.1 2 3 However, according to the more recent relative income hypothesis, an individual's health is also affected by the distribution of income within society. Someone with a given income would have worse health if he or she lived in a society with greater inequality of income than in a society in which income is more equally distributed.4 Several recent papers examining the relation between population mortality and income inequality seem to support the relative income hypothesis.5 6 7 8 9 10 11 They suggest that greater inequality is associated with higher population mortality and that this relation persists even when account is taken of the average income of the population.

However, some scepticism has been expressed about the relative income hypothesis.12 To quote one of the papers cited above, the “mechanisms underlying the association between income distribution and mortality are poorly understood.”7

There may be a very simple explanation for some, or all, of the reported associations between inequality of income and population health used to support the relative income hypothesis. They may be, at least partly, a statistical artefact caused by using population data rather than individual data. A positive correlation between population mortality and income inequality can arise at aggregate level even if inequality has no effect on the individual risk of mortality. Thus, we do not need the relative income hypothesis to explain the observed associations between population health and income inequality—the absolute income hypothesis will serve.

The absolute income explanation can be illustrated with the help of the figure (the mathematical argument is presented in the Appendix 1). In this, the individual risk of mortality depends …

/pdf/how-much-of-the-relation-between-population-mortality-and-32pd5xnjs8.pdf

How much of the relation between population mortality and unequal distribution of income is a statistical artefact

Inequity and inequality in the use of health care in England: an empirical investigation.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact on outcomes in patients of the Evercare approach to case management of elderly people. DESIGN: Practice level before and after analysis of hospital admissions data with control group. SETTING: Nine primary care trusts in England that, in 2003-5, piloted case management of elderly people selected as being at high risk of emergency admission. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of emergency admission, emergency bed days, and mortality from April 2001 to March 2005 in 62 Evercare practices and 6960-7695 control practices in England (depending on the analysis being carried out). RESULTS: The intervention had no significant effect on rates of emergency admission (increase 16.5%, (95% confidence interval -5.7% to 38.7%), emergency bed days (increase 19.0%, -5.3% to 43.2%), and mortality (increase 34.4%, -1.7% to 70.3%) for a high risk population aged >65 with a history of two or more emergency admissions in the preceding 13 months. For the general population aged > or =65 effects on the rates of emergency admission (increase 2.5%, -2.1% to 7.0%), emergency bed days (decrease -4.9%, -10.8% to 1.0%), and mortality (increase 5.5%, -3.5% to 14.5%) were also non-significant. CONCLUSIONS: Case management of frail elderly people introduced an additional range of services into primary care without an associated reduction in hospital admissions. This may have been because of identification of additional cases. Employment of community matrons is now a key feature of case management policy in the NHS in England. Without more radical system redesign this policy is unlikely to reduce hospital admissions.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/334/7583/31.full.pdf

Impact of case management (Evercare) on frail elderly patients: controlled before and after analysis of quantitative outcome data

Objectives To measure general practitioners' intentions to quit direct patient care, to assess changes between 1998 and 2000, and to investigate associated factors, notably job satisfaction. Design Analysis of national postal surveys conducted in 1998 and 2001. Setting England. Participants 1949 general practitioner principals, of whom 790 were surveyed in 1998 and 1159 in 2001. Main outcome measures Overall job satisfaction and likelihood of leaving direct patient care in the next five years. Results The proportion of doctors intending to quit direct patient care in the next five years rose from 14% in 1998 to 22% in 2001. In both years, the main factors associated with an increased likelihood of quitting were older age and ethnic minority status. Higher job satisfaction and having children younger than 18 years were associated with a reduced likelihood of quitting. There were no significant differences in regression coefficients between 1998 and 2001, suggesting that the effect of factors influencing intentions to quit remained stable over time. The rise in intentions to quit was due mainly to a reduction in job satisfaction (1998 mean 4.64, 2001 mean 3.96) together with a slight increase in the proportion of doctors from ethnic minorities and in the mean age of doctors. Doctors' personal and practice characteristics explained little of the variation in job satisfaction within or between years. Conclusions Job satisfaction is an important factor underlying intention to quit, and attention to this aspect of doctors' working lives may help to increase the supply of general practitioners.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/326/7379/22.full.pdf

Hugh Gravelle

Papers

Pay-for-Performance Programs in Family Practices in the United Kingdom

How much of the relation between population mortality and unequal distribution of income is a statistical artefact

Inequity and inequality in the use of health care in England: an empirical investigation.

Impact of case management (Evercare) on frail elderly patients: controlled before and after analysis of quantitative outcome data

National survey of job satisfaction and retirement intentions among general practitioners in England.