We introduce complexity parameters for time series based on comparison of neighboring values. The definition directly applies to arbitrary real-world data. For some well-known chaotic dynamical systems it is shown that our complexity behaves similar to Lyapunov exponents, and is particularly useful in the presence of dynamical or observational noise. The advantages of our method are its simplicity, extremely fast calculation, robustness, and invariance with respect to nonlinear monotonous transformations.

Permutation entropy: a natural complexity measure for time series.

Preface Part I. Turbulence: 1. Introduction 2. Coherent structures 3. Proper orthogonal decomposition 4. Galerkin projection Part II. Dynamical Systems: 5. Qualitative theory 6. Symmetry 7. One-dimensional 'turbulence' 8. Randomly perturbed systems Part III. 9. Low-dimensional Models: 10. Behaviour of the models Part IV. Other Applications and Related Work: 11. Some other fluid problems 12. Review: prospects for rigor Bibliography.

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Turbulence, Coherent Structures, Dynamical Systems and Symmetry

(This article originally appeared in Management Science, November 1967, Volume 14, Number 3, pp. 159-182, published by The Institute of Management Sciences.)

The paper develops a new theory for the analysis of games with incomplete information where the players are uncertain about some important parameters of the game situation, such as the payoff functions, the strategies available to various players, the information other players have about the game, etc. However, each player has a subjective probability distribution over the alternative possibilities.

In most of the paper it is assumed that these probability distributions entertained by the different players are mutually "consistent," in the sense that they can be regarded as conditional probability distributions derived from a certain "basic probability distribution" over the parameters unknown to the various players. But later the theory is extended also to cases where the different players' subjective probability distributions fail to satisfy this consistency assumption.

In cases where the consistency assumption holds, the original game can be replaced by a game where nature first conducts a lottery in accordance with the basic probability distribution, and the outcome of this lottery will decide which particular subgame will be played, i.e., what the actual values of the relevant parameters will be in the game. Yet, each player will receive only partial information about the outcome of the lottery, and about the values of these parameters. However, every player will know the "basic probability distribution" governing the lottery. Thus, technically, the resulting game will be a game with complete information. It is called the Bayes-equivalent of the original game. Part I of the paper describes the basic model and discusses various intuitive interpretations for the latter. Part II shows that the Nash equilibrium points of the Bayes-equivalent game yield "Bayesian equilibrium points" for the original game. Finally, Part III considers the main properties of the "basic probability distribution."

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Games with Incomplete Information Played by Bayesian Players, I-III

I. Random Dynamical Systems and Their Generators.- 1. Basic Definitions. Invariant Measures.- 2. Generation.- II. Multiplicative Ergodic Theory.- 3. The Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem in Euclidean Space.- 4. The Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem on Bundles and Manifolds.- 5. The MET for Related Linear and Affine RDS.- 6. RDS on Homogeneous Spaces of the General Linear Group.- III. Smooth Random Dynamical Systems.- 7. Invariant Manifolds.- 8. Normal Forms.- 9. Bifurcation Theory.- IV. Appendices.- Appendix A. Measurable Dynamical Systems.- A.1 Ergodic Theory.- A.2 Stochastic Processes and Dynamical Systems.- A.3 Stationary Processes.- A.4 Markov Processes.- Appendix B. Smooth Dynamical Systems.- B.1 Two-Parameter Flows on a Manifold.- B.4 Autonomous Case: Dynamical Systems.- B.5 Vector Fields and Flows on Manifolds.- References.

Random Dynamical Systems

This comprehensive treatment of network information theory and its applications provides the first unified coverage of both classical and recent results. With an approach that balances the introduction of new models and new coding techniques, readers are guided through Shannon's point-to-point information theory, single-hop networks, multihop networks, and extensions to distributed computing, secrecy, wireless communication, and networking. Elementary mathematical tools and techniques are used throughout, requiring only basic knowledge of probability, whilst unified proofs of coding theorems are based on a few simple lemmas, making the text accessible to newcomers. Key topics covered include successive cancellation and superposition coding, MIMO wireless communication, network coding, and cooperative relaying. Also covered are feedback and interactive communication, capacity approximations and scaling laws, and asynchronous and random access channels. This book is ideal for use in the classroom, for self-study, and as a reference for researchers and engineers in industry and academia.

I. P. Cornfeld

Papers

Ergodic Theory