Showing papers by "Imlak Shaikh published in 2021"

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the energy markets

Abstract: This article aims to uncover the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the energy markets in terms of energy stock indexes, energy futures, ETFs, and implied volatility indexes. We model the volatility of energy markets and demonstrate the effects of various phases of the pandemic outbreak (COVID-19) on the energy market. COVID-19-induced uncertainty indicators like the growth of the infection, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and infectious diseases market volatility (IDsMV) have shown pronounced effects on energy markets’ historical volatility. The volatility of energy ETFs–stocks appears to be more resilient in line with S&P 500 energy stocks. WTI crude oil market has shown an unprecedented overreaction amid pandemic outbreaks and traded with an extreme volatility level. The investors’ sentiment in the energy market was factually higher on the tail events, indicating that fearful investors rushed toward put options and paid an excess premium to protect from unparalleled risk in the energy market.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic disease outbreak on the global equity markets

Abstract: Behavioural finance literature explains that investment decisions are subject to ‘investor sentiment’ and, consequently, may affect the pricing of various asset classes. Our study examines the 12 m...

Does disease outbreak news impact equity, commodity and foreign exchange market? Investors' fear of the pandemic COVID-19

Abstract: Purpose: Market volatility is subject to good or bad news and even responses to fake news and policy changes. In this piece of work, the authors consider the effects of the recent COVID-19 pandemic event on the global equity market, commodities and FX market, measured in terms of the investors' fear index. Design/methodology/approach: In this empirical work, the authors employ time series-based regression models followed by augmented dummy regressions and growth of the COVID-19. Findings: COVID-19-induced investors' fear appears to be higher in the equity segment for the first time since the market crash of 1987 and the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. Furthermore, this disease outbreak shock has been more pronounced in terms of crude oil prices. Besides, a market participant in the commodity and FX market has paid a disproportionate premium to protect such pandemic development. Findings show that Options act as the best hedge against an uncertainty like COVID-19 and that option-based implied volatility is the best measure of investors' fear and market volatility. Practical implications: This study has practical implications for the financial markets, e.g. (1) Contagious disease outbreak news matters for the equity, commodity, and foreign exchange markets – empirical outcome validates the theory of market efficiency valid for the Options. (2) Option's implied volatility is the best indicator of investor fear measured for the unprecedented economic news. Further implication holds for the policymakers and society, e.g. (1) The unavailability of short-selling could be one plausible reason for increased uncertainty and volatility;hence, policymakers should look upon this issue at the exchange level. (2) Any market needs multiple lines of risk management, effective price discovery and attractive liquidity. Originality/value: The study is novel in terms of presenting market behavior amid COVID-19 across global equity markets and commodities and FX markets. © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited.

On the relation between the crude oil market and pandemic Covid-19

Abstract: The crude oil market has experienced an unprecedented overreaction in the first half of the pandemic year 2020 This study aims to show the performance of the global crude oil market amid Covid-19 and spillover relations with other asset classes,The authors employ various pandemic outbreak indicators to show the overreaction of the crude oil market due to Covid-19 infection The analysis also presents market connectedness and spillover relations between the crude oil market and other asset classes,One of the essential findings the authors report is that the crude oil market remains more responsive to pandemic fake news The shock of the global pandemic panic index and pandemic sentiment index appears to be more promising It has also been noticed that the energy trader's sentiment (OVX and OIV) was measured at a too high level within the Covid-19 outbreak Volatility spillover analysis shows that crude oil and other market are closely connected, and the total connectedness index directs on average 35% contribution from spillover During the initial growth of the infection, other macroeconomic and political events remained to favor the market The second phase amidst the pandemic outbreak harms the global crude oil market The authors find that infectious diseases increase investor panic and anxiety,The crude oil investors' sentiment index OVX indicates fear and panic due to infectious diseases and lack of hedge funds to protect energy investments The unparalleled overreaction of the investors gauged in OVX indicates market participants have paid an excessive put option (protection) premium over the contagious outbreak of the infectious disease,The empirical model and result reported amid Covid-19 are novel in terms of employing a news-based index of the pandemic, which are based on the content analysis and text search using natural processing language with the aid of computer algorithms,原油市場在流行病肆虐的2020年的頭半年經歷史無前例的過度反應。本文旨在顯示全球原油市場在2019冠狀病毒病流行期間的表現及原油市場與其它資產類別之溢出關係,我們使用各種大流行病爆發的指標，來顯示原油市場因2019冠狀病毒病的感染而過度反應。我們的分析亦涉及市場的關聯性及原油市場與其它資產類別之溢出關係,我們其中一個基本的發現是: 原油市場仍對大流行病的虛假新聞有更迅速的反應。全球大流行病恐慌性指數及大流行病情緒指數所帶來的震驚似乎是有希望的。大家亦察覺，能源交易商的情緒(OVX及OIV) 在2019冠狀病毒病爆發期間被測量為處於太高的水平。波動溢出分析顯示、原油與其它市場有密切的關係，而總關聯度指數引導平均35%來自溢出量的作用。在感染傳播初期，其它的宏觀經濟和政治事件仍對市場有利。在大流行病爆發期間的第二階段則損害全球原油市場。我們發現，傳染病會增加投資者的恐慌和焦慮,原油投資者的情緒指數OVX顯示因傳染病及因缺乏對沖基金來保障能源投資而帶來的懼怕和恐慌。於OVX測算到的投資者空前的過度反應顯示市場參與者就這傳染病的感染爆發付出過量的賣權(保障)權利金,我們的經驗模型和在2019冠狀病毒病肆虐期間匯報的研究結果，從使用以新聞為基礎的流行病指數的角度而言是新穎的。而這些全以內容分析和正文搜尋為基礎、使用自然語言處理，並輔以計算機算法

On the relationship between policy uncertainty and sustainable investing

Abstract: Purpose In recent times, sustainable investment gaining much attention within the investors’ community and it is broadly driven by environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. This study aims to examine the ESG-based sustainability index and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Design/methodology/approach Corporate sustainability assessment procedure yields Dow Jones sustainability indexes (DJSIUS) and ESG compliant firms become a member of such indexes. To uncover the effects of policy uncertainty as follows: the study considers EPU index, equity market policy uncertainty index, economic and political events for the period 2000–2017. The authors present the study using a conditional volatility framework. Findings The correlation between the DJSIUS and policy uncertainty appears to be negative and statistically significant. It is apparent from the results that policy uncertainty does contain important ESG factors that explain the sustainable investment in US firms. Moreover, the stock market boom, credit crunch, Lehman collapse and fiscal crises have shown significant adverse effects on the sustainability index. More importantly, it is seen that investors’ sustainable investing considers presidential election years for portfolio planning; the uncertainty associated with the election years has also shown a negative impact on the sustainable returns. Practical implications First, sustainability is essential for the long-term stakeholders’ wealth maximization under governments’ policy uncertainty such as constrained resources, demographic and climate-change-policy, societal expectations, public-policies, regulatory structure. Second, EPU creates new opportunities and risks for sustainable firms and sustainable investing. Originality/value The study is novel in which the authors present the effects of uncertainty on socially responsible investing.

Institutional investment activities and stock market volatility amid COVID-19 in India

Abstract: This article examines institutional investors' investment activities and the impact of their trading styles on market volatility amidst COVID-19 in India. Specifically, it seeks to offer a comprehe...

On the relation between purchasing manager’s index and trade policy uncertainty: evidence from China, Japan and the USA

Abstract: Trade uncertainty does influence the firm’s new investment, profitability and supply chain finance. Consequently, it results in decreased consumption and low consumer confidence and eventually disrupts global economic activity. This paper aims to propose a model to uncover the effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the real economic activity and economy’s health measured in terms of the purchasing manager’s index (PMI).,This study uses the PMI, trade policy uncertainty index, economic policy uncertainty index and short-term interest rate. The relation between economic activity and uncertainty was studied using nested regression and vector autoregressive model.,The empirical results show that PMI of China and Japan were more responsive to the TPU of the USA and remained more fluctuating during the year 2018–2019. Importantly, this paper notices that the US’s PMI reached a low historically subject to its own trade policy and tension with China. Overall, TPU has shown more pronounced effects on PMI across China, Japan and the USA, followed by important economic and political events and major trade tariff uncertainty deals.,The empirical outcome holds some practical implications trade uncertainty affects not only the economic health of the economy but also market participants, global investors and international political environment, recent trade barriers, tariff wars and ambiguity raise question about free and fair global trade and competitiveness of the member country of the world trade organization.,The work is a novel that attempts to explain economic activity and supply chain through PMI. Unlike conventional economic indicators, e.g. gross domestic product, producer price index, consumer price index, employment, etc. PMI measures manufacturing industries’ overall status concerning the number of orders, inventory levels, productions, supplier deliveries and employment.

Does the performance of private investment in public equity firms behave differently in different life cycles

Abstract: Private investment in public equity firms (PIPE) is growing exponentially across the globe, and most of the theoretical and empirical works are accessible for the U.S. and European settings. There ...

Indian banking industry: a new evidence from a profitability perspective

Abstract: While India is set to become the world’s most populous country by 2050, it is also the home to the world’s largest number of unbanked individuals. This paper aims to investigate the profitability issue with a focus on public banks. Using a new methodology based on comparisons tests and panel analysis that test unobserved heterogeneities between banks. We show that public banks are not low performers, nor can private banks be considered high performers Finally, we show that the proportion of non-performing assets (NPAs) is a real concern and requires urgent attention of government and regulators for Indian banks to serve profitability their home market. Banks that make more profits on non-interest income are not necessarily less profitable than others. Further, outcomes favour the ideas that if public banks are able to clean-up their non-performing assets as well as follow a sound prudential regulation, their profits could strongly grow. Future reforms must consider the public bank’s key role in the growth of the India’s economic outlook, especially when it comes to projects of social importance and national priority. The study is based on 105 banks with cross-sections from 2003–2016; however, India’s government has initiated reforms in the banking segment, which has led to a significant decrease in government stake and the number of banks.