Highlighting resource inequality, social processes, and spatial interdependence, this study combines structural characteristics from the 1990 census with a survey of 8,872 Chicago residents in 1995 to predict homicide variations in 1996–1998 across 343 neighborhoods. Spatial proximity to homicide is strongly related to increased homicide rates, adjusting for internal neighborhood characteristics and prior homicide. Concentrated disadvantage and low collective efficacy—defined as the linkage of social control and cohesion—also independently predict increased homicide. Local organizations, voluntary associations, and friend/kinship networks appear to be important only insofar as they promote the collective efficacy of residents in achieving social control and cohesion. Spatial dynamics coupled with neighborhood inequalities in social and economic capacity are therefore consequential for explaining urban violence.

/pdf/neighborhood-inequality-collective-efficacy-and-the-spatial-e7jmmatq9f.pdf

Neighborhood inequality, collective efficacy, and the spatial dynamics of urban violence

The deterrence hypothesis predicts that the introduction of a penalty that leaves everything else unchanged will reduce the occurrence of the behavior subject to the fine. We present the result of a field study in a group of day‐care centers that contradicts this prediction. Parents used to arrive late to collect their children, forcing a teacher to stay after closing time. We introduced a monetary fine for late‐coming parents. As a result, the number of late‐coming parents increased significantly. After the fine was removed no reduction occurred. We argue that penalties are usually introduced into an incomplete contract, social or private. They may change the information that agents have, and therefore the effect on behavior may be opposite of that expected. If this is true, the deterrence hypothesis loses its predictive strength, since the clause “everything else is left unchanged” might be hard to satisfy.

A fine is a price

An important step in extending the traditional theory of individual rational choice to analyze social issues beyond those usually considered by economists is to incorporate into the theory a much richer class of attitudes, preferences, and calculations. While this approach to behavior builds on an expanded theory of individual choice, it is not mainly concerned with individuals. It uses theory at the micro level as a powerful tool to derive implications at the group or macro level. The lecture describes the approach and illustrates it with examples drawn from my past and current work.

/pdf/nobel-lecture-the-economic-way-of-looking-at-behavior-m7q6m8de8h.pdf

Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior

/pdf/preventing-crime-what-works-what-doesn-t-what-s-promising-1jp2dkc4ik.pdf

Preventing Crime: What Works, What Doesn't, What's Promising. Research in Brief. National Institute of Justice.

The likelihood that the firm's information systems are insufficiently protected against certain kinds of damage or loss is known as "systems risk." Risk can be managed or reduced when managers are aware of the full range of controls available and implement the most effective controls. Unfortunately, they often lack this knowledge, and their subsequent actions to cope with systems risk are less effective than they might otherwise be. This is one viable explanation for why losses from computer abuse and computer disasters today are uncomfortably large and still so potentially devastating after many years of attempting to deal with the problem. Results of comparative qualitative studies in two information services Fortune 500 firms identify an approach that can effectively deal with the problem. This theory-based security program includes (1) use of a security risk planning model, (2) education/training in security awareness, and (3) Countermeasure Matrix analysis.

/pdf/coping-with-systems-risk-security-planning-models-for-1om7v412hd.pdf

Incapacitative Effects

Papers

Deterrence and incapacitation : estimating the effects of criminal sanctions on crime rates