THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

According to W. Edwards Deming, American companies require nothing less than a transformation of management style and of governmental relations with industry. In Out of the Crisis, originally published in 1982, Deming offers a theory of management based on his famous 14 Points for Management. Management's failure to plan for the future, he claims, brings about loss of market, which brings about loss of jobs. Management must be judged not only by the quarterly dividend, but by innovative plans to stay in business, protect investment, ensure future dividends, and provide more jobs through improved product and service. In simple, direct language, he explains the principles of management transformation and how to apply them.

Out of the Crisis

/pdf/convex-analysisnoer-san-nojin-zhan-nituite-5dl2rbmoyr.pdf

Convex Analysisの二,三の進展について

An Introduction to MultiAgent Systems.

Bayesian Networks

Motivation: We propose a new class of variable-order Bayesian network (VOBN) models for the identification of transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs). The proposed models generalize the widely used position weight matrix (PWM) models, Markov models and Bayesian network models. In contrast to these models, where for each position a fixed subset of the remaining positions is used to model dependencies, in VOBN models, these subsets may vary based on the specific nucleotides observed, which are called the context. This flexibility turns out to be of advantage for the classification and analysis of TFBSs, as statistical dependencies between nucleotides in different TFBS positions (not necessarily adjacent) may be taken into account efficiently---in a position-specific and context-specific manner.

Results: We apply the VOBN model to a set of 238 experimentally verified sigma-70 binding sites in Escherichia coli. We find that the VOBN model can distinguish these 238 sites from a set of 472 intergenic 'non-promoter' sequences with a higher accuracy than fixed-order Markov models or Bayesian trees. We use a replicated stratified-holdout experiment having a fixed true-negative rate of 99.9%. We find that for a foreground inhomogeneous VOBN model of order 1 and a background homogeneous variable-order Markov (VOM) model of order 5, the obtained mean true-positive (TP) rate is 47.56%. In comparison, the best TP rate for the conventional models is 44.39%, obtained from a foreground PWM model and a background 2nd-order Markov model. As the standard deviation of the estimated TP rate is ∼0.01%, this improvement is highly significant.

Availability: All datasets are available upon request from the authors. A web server for utilizing the VOBN and VOM models is available at http://www.eng.tau.ac.il/~bengal/

Contact: bengal@eng.tau.ac.il

/pdf/identification-of-transcription-factor-binding-sites-with-4hdhyert9v.pdf

Identification of transcription factor binding sites with variable-order Bayesian networks

The definition of a distance measure plays a key role in the evaluation of different clustering solutions of gene expression profiles. In this empirical study we compare different clustering solutions when using the Mutual Information (MI) measure versus the use of the well known Euclidean distance and Pearson correlation coefficient. Relying on several public gene expression datasets, we evaluate the homogeneity and separation scores of different clustering solutions. It was found that the use of the MI measure yields a more significant differentiation among erroneous clustering solutions. The proposed measure was also used to analyze the performance of several known clustering algorithms. A comparative study of these algorithms reveals that their "best solutions" are ranked almost oppositely when using different distance measures, despite the found correspondence between these measures when analysing the averaged scores of groups of solutions. In view of the results, further attention should be paid to the selection of a proper distance measure for analyzing the clustering of gene expression data.

/pdf/evaluation-of-gene-expression-clustering-via-mutual-4mulm9oou0.pdf

Evaluation of gene-expression clustering via mutual information distance measure

Human mobility patterns reflect many aspects of life, from the global spread of infectious diseases to urban planning and daily commute patterns. In recent years, the prevalence of positioning methods and technologies, such as the global positioning system, cellular radio tower geo-positioning, and WiFi positioning systems, has driven efforts to collect human mobility data and to mine patterns of interest within these data in order to promote the development of location-based services and applications. The efforts to mine significant patterns within large-scale, high-dimensional mobility data have solicited use of advanced analysis techniques, usually based on machine learning methods, and therefore, in this paper, we survey and assess different approaches and models that analyze and learn human mobility patterns using mainly machine learning methods. We categorize these approaches and models in a taxonomy based on their positioning characteristics, the scale of analysis, the properties of the modeling approach, and the class of applications they can serve. We find that these applications can be categorized into three classes: user modeling, place modeling, and trajectory modeling, each class with its characteristics. Finally, we analyze the short-term trends and future challenges of human mobility analysis.

Analyzing large-scale human mobility data: a survey of machine learning methods and applications

In this paper, we propose a comprehensive analytics framework that can serve as a decision support tool for HR recruiters in real-world settings in order to improve hiring and placement decisions. The proposed framework follows two main phases: a local prediction scheme for recruitments' success at the level of a single job placement, and a mathematical model that provides a global recruitment optimization scheme for the organization, taking into account multilevel considerations. In the first phase, a key property of the proposed prediction approach is the interpretability of the machine learning (ML) model, which in this case is obtained by applying the Variable-Order Bayesian Network (VOBN) model to the recruitment data. Specifically, we used a uniquely large dataset that contains recruitment records of hundreds of thousands of employees over a decade and represents a wide range of heterogeneous populations. Our analysis shows that the VOBN model can provide both high accuracy and interpretability insights to HR professionals. Moreover, we show that using the interpretable VOBN can lead to unexpected and sometimes counter-intuitive insights that might otherwise be overlooked by recruiters who rely on conventional methods. We demonstrate that it is feasible to predict the successful placement of a candidate in a specific position at a pre-hire stage and utilize predictions to devise a global optimization model. Our results show that in comparison to actual recruitment decisions, the devised framework is capable of providing a balanced recruitment plan while improving both diversity and recruitment success rates, despite the inherent trade-off between the two.

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Irad Ben-Gal

Papers

Bayesian Networks

Identification of transcription factor binding sites with variable-order Bayesian networks

Evaluation of gene-expression clustering via mutual information distance measure

Analyzing large-scale human mobility data: a survey of machine learning methods and applications

Employees recruitment: A prescriptive analytics approach via machine learning and mathematical programming.