This book is downloadable from http://www.irisa.fr/sisthem/kniga/. Many monitoring problems can be stated as the problem of detecting a change in the parameters of a static or dynamic stochastic system. The main goal of this book is to describe a unified framework for the design and the performance analysis of the algorithms for solving these change detection problems. Also the book contains the key mathematical background necessary for this purpose. Finally links with the analytical redundancy approach to fault detection in linear systems are established. We call abrupt change any change in the parameters of the system that occurs either instantaneously or at least very fast with respect to the sampling period of the measurements. Abrupt changes by no means refer to changes with large magnitude; on the contrary, in most applications the main problem is to detect small changes. Moreover, in some applications, the early warning of small - and not necessarily fast - changes is of crucial interest in order to avoid the economic or even catastrophic consequences that can result from an accumulation of such small changes. For example, small faults arising in the sensors of a navigation system can result, through the underlying integration, in serious errors in the estimated position of the plane. Another example is the early warning of small deviations from the normal operating conditions of an industrial process. The early detection of slight changes in the state of the process allows to plan in a more adequate manner the periods during which the process should be inspected and possibly repaired, and thus to reduce the exploitation costs.

Detection of abrupt changes: theory and application

Random variables, $X_1, \cdots, X_k$ are said to be negatively associated (NA) if for every pair of disjoint subsets $A_1, A_2$ of $\{1, 2, \cdots, k\}, \operatorname{Cov}\lbrack f(X_1, i \in A_1), g(X_j, j \in A_2) \rbrack \leq 0$, for all nondecreasing functions $f, g$. The basic properties of negative association are derived. Especially useful is the property that nondecreasing functions of mutually exclusive subsets of NA random variables are NA. This property is shown not to hold for several other types of negative dependence recently proposed. One consequence is the inequality $P(X_i \leq x_i, i = 1, \cdots, k) \leq \prod^k_1P(X_i \leq x_i)$ for NA random variables $X_1, \cdots, X_k$, and the dual inequality resulting from reversing the inequalities inside the square brackets. In another application it is shown that negatively correlated normal random variables are NA. Other NA distributions are the (a) multinomial, (b) convolution of unlike multinomials, (c) multivariate hypergeometric, (d) Dirichlet, and (e) Dirichlet compound multinomial. Negative association is shown to arise in situations where the probability measure is permutation invariant. Applications of this are considered for sampling without replacement as well as for certain multiple ranking and selection procedures. In a somewhat striking example, NA and positive association representing quite strong opposing types of dependence, are shown to exist side by side in models of categorical data analysis.

https://projecteuclid.org/download/pdf_1/euclid.aos/1176346079

Negative Association of Random Variables with Applications

We develop a model where agents obtain information about job opportunities through an explicitly modeled network of social contacts. We show that employment is positively correlated across time and agents. Moreover, unemployment exhibits duration dependence: the probability of obtaining a job decreases in the length of time that an agent has been unemployed. Finally, we examine inequality between two groups. If staying in the labor market is costly and one group starts with a worse employment status, then that group's drop-out rate will be higher and their employment prospects will be persistently below that of the other group.

The Effects of Social Networks on Employment and Inequality

We present two types of stability problems: 1) conditions for queueing networks that render bounded queue lengths and bounded delay for customers, and 2) conditions for queueing networks in which the queue length distribution of a queue has an exponential tail with rate /spl theta/. To answer these two types of stability problems, we introduce two new notions of traffic characterization: minimum envelope rate (MER) and MER with respect to /spl theta/. We also develop a set of rules for network operations such as superposition, input-output relation of a single queue, and routing. Specifically, we show that: 1) the MER of a superposition process is less than or equal to the sum of the MER of each process, 2) a queue is stable in the sense of bounded queue length if the MER of the input traffic is smaller than the capacity, 3) the MER of a departure process from a stable queue is less than or equal to that of the input process, and 4) the MER of a routed process from a departure process is less than or equal to the MER of the departure process multiplied by the MER of the routing process. Similar results hold for MER with respect to /spl theta/ under a further assumption of independence. For single class networks with nonfeedforward routing, we provide a new method to show that similar stability results hold for such networks under the first come, first served policy. Moreover, when restricting to the family of two-state Markov modulated arrival processes, the notion of MER with respect to /spl theta/ is shown to be equivalent to the recently developed notion of effective bandwidth in communication networks. >

Stability, queue length, and delay of deterministic and stochastic queueing networks

Detection of Abrupt Changes: Theory and Applications.

It is customary to consider that two random variables $S$ and $T$ are associated if $\operatorname{Cov}\lbrack S, T\rbrack = EST - ES\cdot ET$ is nonnegative. If $\operatorname{Cov}\lbrack f(S), g(T)\rbrack \geqq 0$ for all pairs of nondecreasing functions $f, g$, then $S$ and $T$ may be considered more strongly associated. Finally, if $\operatorname{Cov}\lbrack f(S, T), g(S, T)\rbrack \geqq 0$ for all pairs of functions $f, g$ which are nondecreasing in each argument, then $S$ and $T$ may be considered still more strongly associated. The strongest of these three criteria has a natural multivariate generalization which serves as a useful definition of association: DEFINITION 1.1. We say random variables $T_1,\cdots, T_n$ are associated if \begin{equation*}\tag{1.1}\operatorname{Cov}\lbrack f(\mathbf{T}), g(\mathbf{T})\rbrack \geqq 0\end{equation*} for all nondecreasing functions $f$ and $g$ for which $Ef(\mathbf{T}), Eg(\mathbf{T}), Ef(\mathbf{T})g(\mathbf{T})$ exist. (Throughout, we use $\mathbf{T}$ for $(T_1,\cdots, T_n)$; also, without further explicit mention we consider only test functions $f, g$ for which $\operatorname{Cov}\lbrack f(\mathbf{T}), g(\mathbf{T})\rbrack$ exists.) In Section 2 we develop the fundamental properties of association: Association of random variables is preserved under (a) taking subsets, (b) forming unions of independent sets, (c) forming sets of nondecreasing functions, (d) taking limits in distribution. In Section 3 we develop some simpler criteria for association. We show that to establish association it suffices to take in (1.1) nondecreasing test functions $f$ and $g$ which are either (a) binary or (b) bounded and continuous. In Section 4 we develop the special properties of association that hold in the case of binary random variables, i.e., random variables that take only the values 0 or 1. These properties turn out to be quite useful in applications. We also discuss association in the bivariate case. We relate our concept of association in this case to several discussed by Lehmann (1966). Finally, in Section 5 applications in probability and statistics are presented yielding results by Robbins (1954), Marshall-Olkin (1966), and Kimball (1951). An application in reliability which motivated our original interest in association will be presented in a forthcoming paper.

/pdf/association-of-random-variables-with-applications-3k1de06pzc.pdf

J. D. Esary

Papers

Association of Random Variables, with Applications