The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period. The current CFSR will be extended as an operational, real-time product into the future. New features of the CFSR include 1) coupling of the atmosphere and ocean during the generation of the 6-h guess field, 2) an interactive sea ice model, and 3) assimilation of satellite radiances by the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme over the entire period. The CFSR global atmosphere resolution is ~38 km (T382) with 64 levels extending from the surface to 0.26 hPa. The global ocean's latitudinal spacing is 0.25° at the equator, extending to a global 0.5° beyond the tropics, with 40 levels to a depth of 4737 m. The global land surface model has four soil levels and the global sea ice m...

/pdf/the-ncep-climate-forecast-system-reanalysis-56utluzgdp.pdf

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

In 1997, during the late stages of production of NCEP–NCAR Global Reanalysis (GR), exploration of a regional reanalysis project was suggested by the GR project's Advisory Committee, “particularly if the RDAS [Regional Data Assimilation System] is significantly better than the global reanalysis at capturing the regional hydrological cycle, the diurnal cycle and other important features of weather and climate variability.” Following a 6-yr development and production effort, NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) project was completed in 2004, and data are now available to the scientific community. Along with the use of the NCEP Eta model and its Data Assimilation System (at 32-km–45-layer resolution with 3-hourly output), the hallmarks of the NARR are the incorporation of hourly assimilation of precipitation, which leverages a comprehensive precipitation analysis effort, the use of a recent version of the Noah land surface model, and the use of numerous other datasets that are additional or improv...

/pdf/north-american-regional-reanalysis-4cgz9xb897.pdf

North american regional reanalysis

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate model simulations of the twentieth century on all time-scales, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess’ fields supplied by an ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis.

The 20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time-varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6-hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three-day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half-century of these surface-based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper-air and satellite data are equally encouraging.

It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

/pdf/the-twentieth-century-reanalysis-project-5fx9pcs9x0.pdf

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled reanalysis was made over a 32-yr period (1979–2010), which provided the initial conditions to carry out a comprehensive reforecast over 29 years (1982–2010). This was done to obtain consistent and stable calibrations, as well as skill estimates for the operational subseasonal and seasonal predictions at NCEP with CFSv2. The operational implementation of the full system ensures a continuity of the climate record and provides a valuable up-to-date dataset to study many aspects of predictability on the seasonal and subseasonal scales. Evaluation of the reforecasts show that the CFSv2 increases the length of skillful MJO forecasts from 6 to 17 days (dramatically improving subseasonal forecasts), nearly doubles the skill of seasonal forecasts of 2-m temperatures over the ...

/pdf/the-ncep-climate-forecast-system-version-2-3tkemm81z9.pdf

The NCEP climate forecast system version 2

[1] We present the impact tests that preceded the most recent operational upgrades to the land surface model used in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) mesoscale Eta model, whose operational domain includes North America. These improvements consist of changes to the “Noah” land surface model (LSM) physics, most notable in the area of cold season processes. Results indicate improved performance in forecasting low-level temperature and humidity, with improvements to (or without affecting) the overall performance of the Eta model quantitative precipitation scores and upper air verification statistics. Remaining issues that directly affect the Noah LSM performance in the Eta model include physical parameterizations of radiation and clouds, which affect the amount of available energy at the surface, and stable boundary layer and surface layer processes, which affect surface turbulent heat fluxes and ultimately the surface energy budget.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2002JD003296

Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model

[i] We present the impact tests that preceded the most recent operational upgrades to the land surface model used in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) mesoscale Eta model, whose operational domain includes North America. These improvements consist of changes to the Noah land surface model (LSM) physics, most notable in the area of cold season processes. Results indicate improved performance in forecasting low-level temperature and humidity, with improvements to (or without affecting) the overall performance of the Eta model quantitative precipitation scores and upper air verification statistics. Remaining issues that directly affect the Noah LSM performance in the Eta model include physical parameterizations of radiation and clouds, which affect the amount of available energy at the surface, and stable boundary layer and surface layer processes, which affect surface turbulent heat fluxes and ultimately the surface energy budget.

Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model : GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project, Part 3 (GCIP3)

J. D. Tarpley

Papers

Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model

Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model : GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project, Part 3 (GCIP3)