Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production.

Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for freshwater ecosystems and water use sectors. We used a global physically based hydrological-water temperature modelling framework forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenario. This resulted in global projections of daily river discharge and water temperature under future climate. Our results show an increase in the seasonality of river discharge (both increase in high flow and decrease in low flow) for about one-third of the global land surface area for 2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000. Global mean and high (95th percentile) river water temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8–1.6 (1.0–2.2) °C for the SRES B1–A2 scenario for 2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for the United States, Europe, eastern China, and parts of southern Africa and Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities are exacerbated by projected decreases in low flows (resulting in a reduced thermal capacity). For strongly seasonal rivers with highest water temperatures during the low flow period, up to 26% of the increases in high (95th percentile) water temperature can be attributed indirectly to low flow changes, and the largest fraction is attributable directly to increased atmospheric energy input. A combination of large increases in river temperature and decreases in low flows are projected for the southeastern United States, Europe, eastern China, southern Africa and southern Australia. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for human uses such as thermoelectric power and drinking water production.

/pdf/global-river-discharge-and-water-temperature-under-climate-17lqqw41ei.pdf

Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change

Delivery and cycling of phosphorus in rivers: A review

Although water constitutes 71% of the earth's surface, only 0.3% of it is available as fresh water for human use. Moreover, the quality of fresh water in ground and surface systems is of great concern, as potable water needs to have appropriate mineral content. Ground and surface water quality in rural and urban environments is affected by both natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Because of this, water is becoming scarcer as the population increases across the world. Natural processes leading to changes in water quality include weathering of rocks, evapotranspiration, depositions due to wind, leaching from soil, run-off due to hydrological factors, and biological processes in the aquatic environment. These natural processes cause changes in the pH and alkalinity of the water, and also phosphorus loading, increase in fluoride content and high concentrations of sulphates. Anthropogenic factors affecting water quality include impacts due to agriculture, use of fertilizers, manures and pesticides,...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/21553769.2014.933716

Influences of natural and anthropogenic factors on surface and groundwater quality in rural and urban areas

Thermal regimes in rivers and streams are fundamentally important to aquatic ecosystems and are expected to change in response to climate forcing as the Earth’s temperature warms. Description and attribution of stream temperature changes are key to understanding how these ecosystems may be affected by climate change, but difficult given the rarity of long-term monitoring data. We assembled 18 temperature time-series from sites on regulated and unregulated streams in the northwest U.S. to describe historical trends from 1980–2009 and assess thermal consistency between these stream categories. Statistically significant temperature trends were detected across seven sites on unregulated streams during all seasons of the year, with a cooling trend apparent during the spring and warming trends during the summer, fall, and winter. The amount of warming more than compensated for spring cooling to cause a net temperature increase, and rates of warming were highest during the summer (raw trend = 0.17°C/decade; reconstructed trend = 0.22°C/decade). Air temperature was the dominant factor explaining long-term stream temperature trends (82–94% of trends) and inter-annual variability (48–86% of variability), except during the summer when discharge accounted for approximately half (52%) of the inter-annual variation in stream temperatures. Seasonal temperature trends at eleven sites on regulated streams were qualitatively similar to those at unregulated sites if two sites managed to reduce summer and fall temperatures were excluded from the analysis. However, these trends were never statistically significant due to greater variation among sites that resulted from local water management policies and effects of upstream reservoirs. Despite serious deficiencies in the stream temperature monitoring record, our results suggest many streams in the northwest U.S. are exhibiting a regionally coherent response to climate forcing. More extensive monitoring efforts are needed as are techniques for short-term sensitivity analysis and reconstructing historical temperature trends so that spatial and temporal patterns of warming can be better understood. Continuation of warming trends this century will increasingly stress important regional salmon and trout resources and hamper efforts to recover these species, so comprehensive vulnerability assessments are needed to provide strategic frameworks for prioritizing conservation efforts.

/pdf/climate-change-effects-on-stream-and-river-temperatures-e29v1w5vzs.pdf

Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes

Impact of summer droughts on the water quality of the Meuse river

[1] This study investigates the impact of both air temperature and river discharge changes on daily water temperatures for river stations globally. A nonlinear water temperature regression model was adapted to include discharge as a variable in addition to air temperature, and a time lag was incorporated to apply the model on a daily basis. The performance of the model was tested for a selection of study basin stations and 157 river temperature stations globally using historical series of daily river temperature, air temperature, and river discharge for the 1980–1999 period. For the study basin stations and for 87% of the global river stations, the performance of the model improved by including discharge as an input variable. Greatest improvements were found during heat wave and drought (low flow) conditions, when water temperatures are most sensitive to atmospheric influences and can reach critically high values. A sensitivity analysis showed increases in annual mean river temperatures of +1.3 °C, +2.6 °C, and +3.8 °C under air temperature increases of +2 °C, +4 °C, and +6 °C, respectively. Discharge decreases of 20% and 40% exacerbated water temperature increases by +0.3 °C and +0.8 °C on average. For several stations, maximum water temperatures on a daily basis were higher under an air temperature increase of +4 °C combined with a 40% discharge decrease compared to an air temperature increase of +6 °C (without discharge changes). Impacts of river discharge on water temperatures should therefore be incorporated to provide more accurate estimations of river temperatures during historical and future projected dry and warm periods.

Global river temperatures and sensitivity to atmospheric warming and changes in river flow

This report provides an assessment of the consequences of changing water availability for production of drinking water, the manufacturing industry and power production in Europe, due to climate change and socio-economic developments. The report is based up on projections of demographic and socio-economic trends and climate change impacts, according to the SRES A2 and B1 scenario’s also used by IPCC

/pdf/water-for-utilities-climate-change-impacts-on-water-quality-3iavvmvtsk.pdf

J.J.G. Zwolsman

Papers

Impact of summer droughts on the water quality of the Meuse river

Global river temperatures and sensitivity to atmospheric warming and changes in river flow

Water for utilities: climate change impacts on water quality and water availability for utilities in Europe