Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation

Climate change is a global threat to the food and nutritional security of the world. As greenhouse-gas emissions in the atmosphere are increasing, the temperature is also rising due to the greenhouse effect. The average global temperature is increasing continuously and is predicted to rise by 2 °C until 2100, which would cause substantial economic losses at the global level. The concentration of CO2, which accounts for a major proportion of greenhouse gases, is increasing at an alarming rate, and has led to higher growth and plant productivity due to increased photosynthesis, but increased temperature offsets this effect as it leads to increased crop respiration rate and evapotranspiration, higher pest infestation, a shift in weed flora, and reduced crop duration. Climate change also affects the microbial population and their enzymatic activities in soil. This paper reviews the information collected through the literature regarding the issue of climate change, its possible causes, its projection in the near future, its impact on the agriculture sector as an influence on physiological and metabolic activities of plants, and its potential and reported implications for growth and plant productivity, pest infestation, and mitigation strategies and their economic impact.

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Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Mitigation Strategies: A Review

Climate change and global warming are of great concern to agriculture worldwide and are among the most discussed issues in today’s society. Climate parameters such as increased temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and changing precipitation patterns have significant impacts on agricultural production and on agricultural insect pests. Changes in climate can affect insect pests in several ways. They can result in an expansion of their geographic distribution, increased survival during overwintering, increased number of generations, altered synchrony between plants and pests, altered interspecific interaction, increased risk of invasion by migratory pests, increased incidence of insect-transmitted plant diseases, and reduced effectiveness of biological control, especially natural enemies. As a result, there is a serious risk of crop economic losses, as well as a challenge to human food security. As a major driver of pest population dynamics, climate change will require adaptive management strategies to deal with the changing status of pests. Several priorities can be identified for future research on the effects of climatic changes on agricultural insect pests. These include modified integrated pest management tactics, monitoring climate and pest populations, and the use of modelling prediction tools.

The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Insect Pests.

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct futur...

Range-Expanding Pests and Pathogens in a Warming World

The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985–2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site–year–variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring ...

Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change

The intensity and area of occurrence of pest species are strongly determined by the overall climate conditions of a locality and the weather pattern within a given season in combination with other factors (e.g. host plant abundance). While inter-seasonal weather variability and consequent fluctuations of individual pest species are well-known phenomena, changes in overall climate conditions and associated range shifts of particular species have likewise become important areas of research, especially during the last decade. The present study demonstrates the methodology and benefits of climate-driven modelling tools using the European corn borer (ECB) Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner, 1796) and Colorado potato beetle (CPB) Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say, 1824) as examples. CLIMEX models of the potential geographical distributions of each species were created and validated under present climate conditions. Both models were then used to study the effects of climate change on ECB and CPB by estimating changes in population dynamics and/or infestation pressure during the first half of the 21st century. Simulations were conducted using 3 global circulation models (HadCM3, NCAR-PCM, and ECHAM4) and scaled by low and high values of global temperature change. The results predict an increase in newly established areas and in the number of pest generations per year. The ratio of arable land affected by a particular number of generations is also expected to increase. Under the HadCM3-high 2050 scenario, this ratio increases by about 43 and 48% for the second generations of CPB and ECB, respectively. Another significant result is shown for higher altitudes currently unoccupied by pests. We recorded rapid generation increase (from 0 to 2), which supports the hypothesis that these areas are more affected by increased temperatures.

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Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region

The present study is focused on the potential occurrence of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824), an important potato pest, and the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hubner 1796), the most important maize pest, during climate change. Estimates of the current potential distribution of both pest species as well as their distribution in the expected climate conditions are based on the CLIMEX model. The study covers central Europe, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and parts of Germany, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine, Slovenia, the northern parts of Serbia, parts of Croatia and northern Italy. The validated model of the pests’ geographical distribution was applied within the domain of the regional climate model (RCM) ALADIN, at a resolution of 10 km. The weather series that was the input for the CLIMEX model was prepared by a weather generator (WG) which was calibrated with the RCM-simulated weather series (for the period of 1961–90). To generate a weather series for two future time periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100), the WG parameters were modified according to 12 climate change scenarios produced by the pattern scaling method. The standardized scenarios derived from three global climate models (HadCM, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM) were scaled by low, middle and high values of global temperature change estimated by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) model (assuming three combinations of climatic sensitivity and emission scenarios). The results of present study suggest the likely widening of the pests’ habitats and an increase in the number of generations per year. According to the HadCM-high scenario, the area of arable land affected by a third generation per season of Colorado potato beetle in 2050 is c. 45% higher, and by a second generation of the European corn borer is nearly 61% higher, compared to present levels.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/5E4384AF801B8CFE6A0BAB860906E5FB/S0021859610001140a.pdf/div-class-title-estimating-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-occurrence-of-selected-pests-at-a-high-spatial-resolution-a-novel-approach-div.pdf

Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests at a high spatial resolution: a novel approach

Climate conditions exert a significant influence over the spreading, life cycle duration, infestation pressure and the overall occurrence of majority of agricultural pests and diseases. Recently there is paid a big attention to possible climate change and its impacts resulting the threat to the controlled agro ecosystems. In the context of actual climate change there is likely the shift in the occurrence of some pests and diseases and at the same time also the change of the spectrum of harmful organisms. Direct results of the effect of higher tem - peratures on the pests' lifecycle can involve the acceleration of pests' development due to the faster achieving of number of degree-days which can result the shift of pests to higher altitudes. There is likely the increase of the number of generations of some pests and higher population density in the consequence of prolonged grow - ing season and the period favourable for reproduction. Changed conditions during the period of overwintering could be the determining factor for population dynamic of insect and fungi.

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J. Juroch

Papers

Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region

Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests at a high spatial resolution: a novel approach

Impact of Climate Change on the Occurrence and Activity of Harmful Organisms