A new combined local and nonlocal closure atmospheric boundary layer model called the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2, (ACM2) was described and tested in one-dimensional form and was compared with large-eddy simulations and field data in Part I. Herein, the incorporation of the ACM2 into the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is described. Model simulations using the MM5 with the ACM2 are made for the summer of 2004 and evaluated through comparison with surface meteorological measurements, rawinsonde profile measurements, and observed planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights derived from radar wind profilers. Overall model performance is as good as or better than similar MM5 evaluation studies. The MM5 simulations with the ACM2 compare particularly well to PBL heights derived from radar wind profilers during the afternoon hours. The ACM2 is designed to simulate the vertical mixing of any modeled quantity realistically for both meteorological models and ...

A Combined Local and Nonlocal Closure Model for the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. Part II: Application and Evaluation in a Mesoscale Meteorological Model

In recent years, a mixed-physics ensemble approach has been investigated as a method to better predict mesoscale convective system (MCS) rainfall. For both mixed-physics ensemble design and interpretation, knowledge of the general impact of various physical schemes and their interactions on warm season MCS rainfall forecasts would be useful. Adopting the newly emerging Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for this purpose would further emphasize such benefits. To pursue this goal, a matrix of 18 WRF model configurations, created using different physical scheme combinations, was run with 12-km grid spacing for eight International H2O Project (IHOP) MCS cases. For each case, three different treatments of convection, three different microphysical schemes, and two different planetary boundary layer schemes were used. Sensitivity to physics changes was determined using the correspondence ratio and the squared correlation coefficient. The factor separation method was also used to quantify in detail the impacts of the variation of two different physical schemes and their interaction on the simulated rainfall. Skill score measures averaged over all eight cases for all 18 configurations indicated that no one configuration was obviously best at all times and thresholds. The greatest variability in forecasts was found to come from changes in the choice of convective scheme, although notable impacts also occurred from changes in the microphysics and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. Specifically, changes in convective treatment notably impacted the forecast of system average rain rate, while forecasts of total domain rain volume were influenced by choices of microphysics and convective treatment. The impact of interactions (synergy) of different physical schemes, although occasionally of comparable magnitude to the impacts from changing one scheme alone (compared to a control run), varied greatly among cases and over time, and was typically not statistically significant.

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The Impact of Different WRF Model Physical Parameterizations and Their Interactions on Warm Season MCS Rainfall

This study aims at quantifying seasonal biases of regional climate model outputs during southern African summer, against a dense in situ measurement network (daily rain-gauge and surface air temperature records, and 12 h UTC radiosondes), and uncertainties associated with some physical parameterizations. Using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Research Weather Forecast (WRF) laterally forced by ERA40 reanalysis, twenty-seven experiments configured with three schemes of cumulus (CU), planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MP), are performed at 35 km horizontal resolution during the core of a summer rainy season (December 1993 to February 1994 season) representative of the South African rainfall climatology. WRF simulates accurately seasonal large-scale rainfall patterns, as well as seasonal gradients of South African rainfall and 2-m temperature, and seasonal vertical profiles of the air temperature and humidity. However seasonal biases fluctuate strongly from an experiment to another, denoting considerable uncertainties generated by the physical package. Rainfall amounts are the most sensitive parameter to the tested schemes. Their geography, intensity, and intraseasonal characteristics are predominantly sensitive to CU schemes, and much less to PBL and MP schemes. Some CU-PBL combinations produce additive effects, which can dramatically either reduce or increase biases. Satisfactory configurations are found for South African climate, which would not have been possible without testing numerous physical parameterizations.

Uncertainties in simulating regional climate of Southern Africa: sensitivity to physical parameterizations using WRF

We present an analysis of the sensitivity to different physical parameterizations of a high-resolution simulation of the MM5 mesoscale model over the Iberian Peninsula. Several (16) 5-year runs of the MM5 model with varying parameterizations of microphysics, cumulus, planetary boundary layer and longwave radiation have been carried out. The results have been extensively compared with observational precipitation and surface temperature data. The parameterization uncertainty has also been compared with that related to the boundary conditions and the varying observational data sets. The annual cycles of precipitation and surface temperature are well reproduced. The summer season presents the largest deviations, with a 5 K cold bias in the southeast and noticeable precipitation errors over mountain areas. The cold bias seems to be related to the surface, probably because of the excessive moisture availability of the five-layer soil scheme used. No parameterization combination was found to perform best in simulating both precipitation and surface temperature in every season and subregion. The Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme was found to produce unrealistically high summer precipitation. The longwave radiation parameterizations tested were found to have little impact on our target variables. Other factors, such as the choice of boundary conditions, have an impact on the results as large as the selection of parameterizations. The range of variability in the MM5 physics ensemble is of the same order of magnitude as the observational uncertainty, except in summer, when it is larger and probably related to the inaccuracy of the model to reproduce the summer precipitation over the area.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2005JD006649

Sensitivity of the MM5 mesoscale model to physical parameterizations for regional climate studies: Annual cycle

. The "Montserrat-2000" severe flash flood event which occurred over Catalonia on 9 and 10 June 2000 is analyzed. Strong precipitation was generated by a mesoscale convective system associated with the development of a cyclone. The location of heavy precipitation depends on the position of the cyclone, which, in turn, is found to be very sensitive to various model characteristics and initial conditions. Numerical simulations of this case study using the hydrostatic BOLAM and the non-hydrostatic MOLOCH models are performed in order to test the effects of different formulations of the boundary layer parameterization: a modified version of the Louis (order 1) model and a custom version of the E-l (order 1.5) model. Both of them require a diagnostic formulation of the mixing length, but the use of the turbulent kinetic energy equation in the E-l model allows to represent turbulence history and non-locality effects and to formulate a more physically based mixing length. The impact of the two schemes is different in the two models. The hydrostatic model, run at 1/5 degree resolution, is less sensitive, but the quantitative precipitation forecast is in any case unsatisfactory in terms of localization and amount. Conversely, the non-hydrostatic model, run at 1/50 degree resolution, is capable of realistically simulate timing, position and amount of precipitation, with the apparently superior results obtained with the E-l parameterization model.

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Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to boundary layer parameterization: a flash flood case study in the Western Mediterranean

. The role played by planetary boundary layer (PBL) in the development and evolution of a severe convective storm is studied by means of meso-scale modeling and surface and upper air observations. The severe convective precipitation event that occurred on 14 September 1999 in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula was simulated by means of the mesoscale model MM5 (version 3) using three different PBL schemes. The numerical results show a large impact of the PBL schemes on the precipitation fields associated to the convective storm. The schemes are based on different physical assumptions: the nonlocal first order Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) and Blackadar (BLA) scheme and the local, one-and-a-half order ETA scheme. Surface and radar observations are used to validate the model results. The comparison focuses on three aspects: the evolution, the spatial distribution and the 24-h accumulated precipitation. The comparison with rain gauge observations shows that the MRF, BLA and ETA schemes predicted most of the precipitation during the morning, whereas the rain gauge stations recorded rainfall during the evening. The evaluation performed with the radar data shows that all three numerical simulations produced a realistic spatial accumulated precipitation distribution. According to the quantity distribution, all three numerical simulations were able to predict precipitation quantities comparable to the rain gauge measurements. The MRF scheme predicted the largest average accumulated precipitation and the largest average precipitation rate, whereas the ETA scheme predicted the smallest accumulated precipitation and average precipitation rate. However, the ETA scheme yielded the highest extreme precipitation rates. The performance of the three schemes is analyzed in terms of the vertical distribution of potential temperature, specific humidity and conserved variables, like equivalent potential temperature and total water content. The MRF scheme showed more evidence of enhanced mixing than did the other schemes. Due to this process, more moisture was more efficiently transported to the free atmosphere. Consequently, the MRF scheme predicts more widespread precipitation. Furthermore, the enhanced mixing led to a less sharp capping inversion. However, the stronger inversion resulting from suppressed mixing processes in the case of the ETA scheme yielded higher values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) than did the other two schemes. Consequently, the more extreme precipitation rates are simulated by MM5 when the ETA scheme is used.

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J. S. P. Wisse

Papers

Analysis of the role of the planetary boundary layer schemes during a severe convective storm