The Wang-Sheeley model is an empirical model that can predict the background solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity. We make a number of modifications to the basic technique that greatly improve the performance and reliability of the model. First, we establish a continuous empirical function that relates magnetic expansion factor to solar wind velocity at the source surface. Second, we propagate the wind from the source surface to the Earth using the assumption of radial streams and a simple scheme to account for their interactions. Third, we develop and apply a method for identifying and removing problematic magnetograms from the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). Fourth, we correct WSO line-of-sight magnetograms for polar field strength modulation effects that result from the annual variation in the solar b angle. Fifth, we explore a number of techniques to optimize construction of daily updated synoptic maps from the WSO magnetograms. We report on a comprehensive statistical analysis comparing Wang-Sheeley model predictions with the WIND satellite data set during a 3-year period centered about the May 1996 solar minimum. The predicted and observed solar wind speeds have a statistically significant correlation (∼0.4) and an average fractional deviation of 0.15. When a single (6-month) period with large data gaps is excluded from the comparison, the solar wind speed is correctly predicted to within 10–15%. The IMF polarity is correctly predicted ∼75% of the time. The solar wind prediction technique presented here has direct applications to space weather research and forecasting.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/1999JA000262

Improvement in the prediction of solar wind conditions using near‐real time solar magnetic field updates

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the largest-scale eruptive phenomenon in the solar system, expanding from active region-sized nonpotential magnetic structure to a much larger size. The bulk of plasma with a mass of ∼ 1011,1013 kg is hauled up all the way out to the interplanetary space with a typical velocity of several hundred or even more than 1000 km s−1, with a chance to impact our Earth, resulting in hazardous space weather conditions. They involve many other much smaller-sized solar eruptive phenomena, such as X-ray sigmoids, filament/prominence eruptions, solar flares, plasma heating and radiation, particle acceleration, EIT waves, EUV dimmings, Moreton waves, solar radio bursts, and so on. It is believed that, by shedding the accumulating magnetic energy and helicity, they complete the last link in the chain of the cycling of the solar magnetic field. In this review, I try to explicate our understanding on each stage of the fantastic phenomenon, including their pre-eruption structure, their triggering mechanisms and the precursors indicating the initiation process, their acceleration and propagation. Particular attention is paid to clarify some hot debates, e.g., whether magnetic reconnection is necessary for the eruption, whether there are two types of CMEs, how the CME frontal loop is formed, and whether halo CMEs are special.

/pdf/coronal-mass-ejections-models-and-their-observational-basis-18wrfif7lq.pdf

Coronal Mass Ejections: Models and Their Observational Basis

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) began near-continuous full-disk solar measurements on 1 May 2010 from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). An automated processing pipeline keeps pace with observations to produce observable quantities, including the photospheric vector magnetic field, from sequences of filtergrams. The basic vector-field frame list cadence is 135 seconds, but to reduce noise the filtergrams are combined to derive data products every 720 seconds. The primary 720 s observables were released in mid-2010, including Stokes polarization parameters measured at six wavelengths, as well as intensity, Doppler velocity, and the line-of-sight magnetic field. More advanced products, including the full vector magnetic field, are now available. Automatically identified HMI Active Region Patches (HARPs) track the location and shape of magnetic regions throughout their lifetime. The vector field is computed using the Very Fast Inversion of the Stokes Vector (VFISV) code optimized for the HMI pipeline; the remaining 180∘ azimuth ambiguity is resolved with the Minimum Energy (ME0) code. The Milne–Eddington inversion is performed on all full-disk HMI observations. The disambiguation, until recently run only on HARP regions, is now implemented for the full disk. Vector and scalar quantities in the patches are used to derive active region indices potentially useful for forecasting; the data maps and indices are collected in the SHARP data series, hmi.sharp_720s. Definitive SHARP processing is completed only after the region rotates off the visible disk; quick-look products are produced in near real time. Patches are provided in both CCD and heliographic coordinates. HMI provides continuous coverage of the vector field, but has modest spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution. Coupled with limitations of the analysis and interpretation techniques, effects of the orbital velocity, and instrument performance, the resulting measurements have a certain dynamic range and sensitivity and are subject to systematic errors and uncertainties that are characterized in this report.

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The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Vector Magnetic Field Pipeline: Overview and Performance

A new data product from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) called Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARPs) is now available. SDO/HMI is the first space-based instrument to map the full-disk photospheric vector magnetic field with high cadence and continuity. The SHARP data series provide maps in patches that encompass automatically tracked magnetic concentrations for their entire lifetime; map quantities include the photospheric vector magnetic field and its uncertainty, along with Doppler velocity, continuum intensity, and line-of-sight magnetic field. Furthermore, keywords in the SHARP data series provide several parameters that concisely characterize the magnetic-field distribution and its deviation from a potential-field configuration. These indices may be useful for active-region event forecasting and for identifying regions of interest. The indices are calculated per patch and are available on a twelve-minute cadence. Quick-look data are available within approximately three hours of observation; definitive science products are produced approximately five weeks later. SHARP data are available at jsoc.stanford.edu and maps are available in either of two different coordinate systems. This article describes the SHARP data products and presents examples of SHARP data and parameters.

/pdf/the-helioseismic-and-magnetic-imager-hmi-vector-magnetic-1b6plsp29f.pdf

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Vector Magnetic Field Pipeline: SHARPs - Space-Weather HMI Active Region Patches

In this paper, we present a model of the plasma beta above an active region and discuss its consequences in terms of coronal magnetic field modeling. The β-plasma model is representative and derived from a collection of sources. The resulting β variation with height in the solar atmosphere is used to emphasize that the assumption that the magnetic pressure dominates over the plasma pressure must be carefully employed when extrapolating the magnetic field. This paper points out (1) that the paradigm that the coronal magnetic field can be constructed from a force-free magnetic field must be used in the correct context, since the force-free region is sandwiched between two regions which have β>1, (2) that the chromospheric Mg ii–C iv magnetic measurements occur near the β-minimum, and (3) that, moving from the photosphere upwards, β can return to ∼1 at relatively low coronal heights, e.g., R∼1.2 R
s.

/pdf/plasma-beta-above-a-solar-active-region-rethinking-the-4w75q7l32l.pdf

Plasma beta above a solar active region: rethinking the paradigm

Long-term variability of solar magnetic fields

The Coronal Global Evolutionary Model (CGEM) provides data-driven simulations of the magnetic field in the solar corona to better understand the build-up of magnetic energy that leads to eruptive events The CGEM project has developed six capabilities CGEM modules (1) prepare time series of full-disk vector magnetic field observations to (2) derive the changing electric field in the solar photosphere over active-region scales This local electric field is (3) incorporated into a surface flux transport model that reconstructs a global electric field that evolves magnetic flux in a consistent way These electric fields drive a (4) 3D spherical magneto-frictional (SMF) model, either at high-resolution over a restricted range of solid angle or at lower resolution over a global domain, to determine the magnetic field and current density in the low corona An SMF-generated initial field above an active region and the evolving electric field at the photosphere are used to drive (5) detailed magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of active regions in the low corona SMF or MHD solutions are then used to compute emissivity proxies that can be compared with coronal observations Finally, a lower-resolution SMF magnetic field is used to initialize (6) a global MHD model that is driven by an SMF electric-field time series to simulate the outer corona and heliosphere, ultimately connecting Sun to Earth As a demonstration, this report features results of CGEM applied to observations of the evolution of NOAA Active Region 11158 in February 2011

The Coronal Global Evolutionary Model: Using HMI Vector Magnetogram and Doppler Data to Determine Coronal Magnetic Field Evolution

Solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are sometimes deflected during their propagation. This deflection may be the consequence of interaction between a CME and a coronal hole or the solar wind. We analyze 44 halo-CMEs whose deflection angle exceeds 90 degrees. The coronal magnetic field configuration is computed from daily synoptic maps of magnetic field from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI using a Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model. By comparing the ambient magnetic field configuration and the measured position angles (MPA) of the CMEs, we conclude that the deflection of 80% of the CMEs (35 of 44) are consistent with the ambient magnetic field configuration, agreeing with previous studies. Of these 35, 71% are deflected toward the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and 29 degrees toward a pseudo-streamer (PS), the boundary between the same-polarity magnetic field regions. This implies that the ambient coronal magnetic field configuration plays an important and major role in the deflection of CMEs, and that the HCS configuration is more important than PS. If we exclude 13 CMEs having much higher uncertainty from the sample, the agreement between the deflection of CMEs and the ambient field configuration increases substantially, reaching 94% in the new sample of 31 CMEs.

On Deflection of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections by the Ambient Coronal Magnetic Field Configuration

How does the radial component of the heliospheric magnetic field depend on the Sun? Using extended time series of photospheric and interplanetary magnetic field data from 1976 to 1994, we confirm our earlier inference: that the temporal variation of the radial component of the undisturbed heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in the ecliptic mainly follows the evolution of the equatorial component of the Sun’s dipole field [Zhao and Hoeksema, 1995a]. Implications of this finding are not theoretically consistent with reports that Ulysses observes a complete absence of latitude dependence of the radial HMF component. Further examination of the Ulysses data is necessary to see whether there is, in fact, even a small gradient in the latitudinal distribution of the radial ambient HMF component or whether our theories need major revision.

J. Todd Hoeksema

Papers

Long-term variability of solar magnetic fields

The Coronal Global Evolutionary Model: Using HMI Vector Magnetogram and Doppler Data to Determine Coronal Magnetic Field Evolution

On Deflection of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections by the Ambient Coronal Magnetic Field Configuration

The temporal evolution of the radial component of the heliospheric magnetic field

The Deflection of Coronal Mass Ejections by the Ambient Coronal Magnetic Field Configuration