The Personal Interview

Monthly Notices is one of the three largest general primary astronomical research publications. It is an international journal, published by the Royal Astronomical Society. This article 1 describes its publication policy and practice.

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

The Visual Display of Quantitative Information

Journal of Statistical Mechanics: theory and experiment

OR/MS research in disaster operations management

Resilience management goes beyond risk management to address the complexities of large integrated systems and the uncertainty of future threats, especially those associated with climate change.

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~anders/publications/linkov_bridges14.pdf

Changing the resilience paradigm

The paper discusses the theory and methodology supporting the development of the inoperability input-output model (IIM). The IIM is based on Leontief’s input-output model, which characterizes interdependencies among sectors in the economy and analyzes initial disruptions to a set of sectors and the resulting ripple effects. An advantage of building on Leontief’s model is that it is supported by publications of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Independent computer runs of the IIM can represent the entire nation or sectors within particular U.S. regions. A dynamic extension of the IIM analyzes different temporal frames of recovery and characterizes the required sector adjustments for achieving new production levels. The IIM can systemically prioritize and manage the sectors deemed to be economically critical and also identify those sectors whose continued operability is critical during recovery. A companion paper demonstrates applying the IIM to attacks on electric power and telecommunications.

Inoperability Input-Output Model for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors. I: Theory and Methodology

This paper contributes a methodological framework to identify, prioritize, assess, and manage risk scenarios of a large-scale system. Qualitative screening of scenarios and classes of scenarios is appropriate initially, while quantitative assessments may be applied once the set of all scenarios (hundreds) has been prioritized in several phases. The eight-phase methodology is described in detail and is applied to operations other than war. The eight phases are as follows: Phase I, Scenario Identification-A hierarchical holographic model (HHM) is developed to describe the system's "as planned" or "success" scenario. Phase II, Scenario Filtering-The risk scenarios identified in Phase I are filtered according to the responsibilities and interests of the current system user. Phase III, Bi-Criteria Filtering and Ranking. Phase IV, Multi-Criteria Evaluation. Phase V, Quantitative Ranking-We continue to filter and rank scenarios based on quantitative and qualitative matrix scales of likelihood and consequence; and ordinal response to system resiliency, robustness, redundancy. Phase VI, Risk Management is performed, involving identification of management options for dealing with the filtered scenarios, and estimating the cost, performance benefits, and risk reduction of each. Phase VII, Safeguarding Against Missing Critical Items--We examine the performance of the options selected in Phase VI against the scenarios previously filtered out during Phases II to V. Phase VIII, Operational Feedback-We use the experience and information gained during application to refine the scenario filtering and decision processes in earlier phases. These eight phases reflect a philosophical approach rather than a mechanical methodology. In this philosophy, the filtering and ranking of discrete scenarios is viewed as a precursor to, rather than a substitute for, consideration of the totality of all risk scenarios.

Risk filtering, ranking, and management framework using hierarchical holographic modeling.

The paper discusses case studies of the inoperability input-output model (IIM) for modeling impacts of willful attacks on interdependent sectors. The IIM is a model for assessing sector vulnerabilities using the inoperability and economic loss impact metrics. The case studies focus on high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) attack scenarios. HEMP is an intense electromagnetic blast induced from high-elevation nuclear explosions, potentially causing damage to electronic and electrical systems. Parametric and uncertainty analyses are conducted for assessing (1) intensity of initial disruptions, (2) sector recovery characteristics, (3) economic loss reduction policies for critical sectors, and (4) regional scope of an attack. Sectors susceptible to a HEMP attack have been identified, including electric power, electronic equipment, and workforce. Trade-off analyses are performed to analyze the efficacy of resource allocation strategies associated with recovery. Recommendations from this paper include developing cost-benefit-risk balanced solutions for managing and expediting recovery time from potential terrorist attacks.

James H. Lambert

Papers

Changing the resilience paradigm

Inoperability Input-Output Model for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors. I: Theory and Methodology

Risk filtering, ranking, and management framework using hierarchical holographic modeling.

Inoperability Input-Output Model for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors. II: Case Studies

A Methodology for