2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

/pdf/the-theory-of-industrial-organization-19bejph0ej.pdf

The Theory of Industrial Organization

This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

World energy outlook

The Theory of Monopolistic Competition.

https://www.lef.wiwi.uni-due.de/fileadmin/fileupload/BWL-LEF/Seminarreihe/RWeron14_Essen.pdf

Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

Ce rapport conjoint de l’Agence internationale de l’energie (AIE) et de l’Agence de l'OCDE pour l’energie nucleaire (AEN) est la septieme d’une serie d’etudes consacrees aux couts de production d’electricite. Elle presente les donnees les plus recentes disponibles sur un large eventail d'energies et de technologies, notamment le charbon et le gaz (avec et sans capture du carbone), le nucleaire, l’hydro-electrique, l’eolien (a terre et en mer), la biomasse, le solaire, l’energie des vagues et l’energie maremotrice, ainsi que la production combinee de chaleur et d’electricite. Elle indique les couts moyens actualises de l’electricite (LCOE, levelised costs of electricity) par MWe pour pres de 200 centrales, sur la base de donnees couvrant 21 pays (dont quatre pays importants non-membres de l’OCDE), ainsi que plusieurs societes industrielles et organisations. Pour la premiere fois, le rapport contient une analyse de sensibilite approfondie de l’impact sur le LCOE de la variation des principaux parametres, tels les taux d’actualisation, les prix des energies et les couts du carbone. D’autres impacts sur les choix en matiere de production d’electricite sont egalement etudies.

Projected Costs of Generating Electricity : 2010 Edition

Prices, technology development and the rebound effect

Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS

This report addresses the increasingly important interactions of variable renewables and dispatchable energy technologies, such as nuclear power, in terms of their effects on electricity systems. These effects add costs to the production of electricity, which are not usually transparent. The report recommends that decision-makers should take into account such system costs and internalise them according to a "generator pays" principle, which is currently not the case. Analysing data from six OECD/NEA countries, the study finds that including the system costs of variable renewables at the level of the electricity grid increases the total costs of electricity supply by up to one-third, depending on technology, country and penetration levels. In addition, it concludes that, unless the current market subsidies for renewables are altered, dispatchable technologies will increasingly not be replaced as they reach their end of life and consequently security of supply will suffer. This implies that significant changes in management and cost allocation will be needed to generate the flexibility required for an economically viable coexistence of nuclear energy and renewables in increasingly decarbonised electricity systems.

Jan Horst Keppler

Papers

Projected Costs of Generating Electricity : 2010 Edition

Prices, technology development and the rebound effect

Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS

Nuclear Energy and Renewables - System Effects in Low-Carbon Electricity Systems

Rents in the European power sector due to carbon trading.