A detailed review of the education sector in Australia as in the data provided by the 2006 edition of the OECD's annual publication, 'Education at a Glance' is presented. While the data has shown that in almost all OECD countries educational attainment levels are on the rise, with countries showing impressive gains in university qualifications, it also reveals that a large of share of young people still do not complete secondary school, which remains a baseline for successful entry into the labour market.

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Education at a Glance

Introduction: Explaining the EU Political System PART I: GOVERNMENT Executive Politics Legislative Politics Judicial Politics PART II: POLITICS Public Opinion Democracy, Parties and Elections Interest Representation PART III: POLICY-MAKING Regulation of the Single Market Expenditure Policies Economic and Monetary Union Citizen Freedom and Security Policies Foreign Policies Conclusions: Rethinking the European Union Appendix: Decision-making Procedures of the European Union Bibliography

The political system of European Union

This paper explains the key factors that determine the output multiplier of government purchases in New Keynesian models, through a series of simple examples that can be solved analytically. Sticky prices or wages allow for larger multipliers than in a neoclassical model, though the size of the multiplier depends crucially on the monetary policy response. A multiplier well in excess of 1 is possible when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound, and in this case welfare increases if government purchases expand to partially flll the output gap that arises from the inability to lower interest rates.

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Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier

It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics In the environment that has prevailed for at least three decades now, it is not possible to understand business fluctuations and the corresponding analytical and policy challenges without understanding the financial cycle This calls for a rethink of modelling strategies and for significant adjustments to macroeconomic policies This essay highlights the stylised empirical features of the financial cycle, conjectures as to what it may take to model it satisfactorily, and considers its policy implications In the discussion of policy, the essay pays special attention to the bust phase, which is less well explored and raises much more controversial issues

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2195976_code456443.pdf?abstractid=2195976&mirid=1

The Financial Cycle and Macroeconomics: What Have We Learnt?

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.

/pdf/growth-forecast-errors-and-fiscal-multipliers-3nwicszm2s.pdf

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

This paper proposes a framework for sovereign debt sustainability assessment based on an estimated DSGE model. One advantage of this is that it allows taking into account feedback effects of debt ratios, spreads and fiscal measures on growth and tax bases, and thus capture the impact of changes in the composition of GDP which is pronounced during fiscal consolidation. Unsustainable debt developments may give rise to increasing interest rate spreads which could further reduce growth and tax revenue and worsen debt dynamics, while fiscal austerity measures are likely to reduce growth and lower tax revenues in the short run. Capturing the impact of risk premium on growth and public debt dynamics is crucial to understand current developments and policy trade-offs in euro area periphery countries.

Sovereign debt sustainability scenarios based on an estimated model for Spain

This paper describes the endogenous growth version of the QUEST III model and uses it to analyse the macroeconomic impact of various structural reform measures. This paper describes a micro-founded DSGE model with endogenous growth that is used to analyse the macroeconomic impact of structural reforms in Europe. The new QUEST III model is a useful tool for analysing the costs and benefits of reforms in terms of concrete and quantifiable policy measures, in particular fiscal policy instruments such as taxes, benefits, subsidies and education expenditures, administrative costs faced by firms and regulatory indices. Our results confirm the beneficial effects on output and employment of skill-biased tax reforms, measures that improve the skill composition of the labour force, R&D subsidies, raising competition in final goods market, increased financial market integration and measures that remove entry barriers in certain markets. The model also allows us to examine the adjustment path and the time lags involved before these benefits can be reaped.

Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth

This paper develops a semi-endogenous growth model for analysing the intertemporal effects of structural reforms in Southern European countries (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece). The model follows the product variety paradigm in a semi-endogenous setting, and includes a disaggregation of labour into different skill groups. We use a comprehensive set of structural indicators in order to calibrate the model to important macroeconomic ratios and levels of productivity and employment. Our results show that structural reforms yield significant economic gains in the medium and long run. The results point to the importance of product market reforms and labour market related education and tax reforms as the most promising areas of structural policy interventions. This paper also argues for placing more emphasis on education policy which is key in upgrading the labour force, especially in these countries where the share of low skilled labour is among the highest in the euro area.

Growth Effects of Structural Reforms in Southern Europe: The case of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal

This chapter examines the macroeconomic benefits that membership of the Single Market has given to the 11 Baltics, Central and South Eastern European countries that joined the EU after 2004. We find that these EU11 countries have benefitted particularly from membership of the internal market because of their high degree of openness and their strong trade integration within the EU. The analysis is conducted with the macroeconomic model QUEST that distinguishes between all EU member states and the rest of the world. We capture both the direct welfare effects for consumers from the reduction of tariffs and non-tariff barriers but we also consider indirect effects on income which work via labour supply, the decline of capital costs for firms and effects on EU value chains via lower prices for intermediates. GDP effects depend heavily on the degree of openness with respect to intra-EU trade. We find GDP effects which are in the middle of effects estimated in ex ante studies.

The Economic Impact of Single Market Membership on the EU Enlargement Countries

This chapter provides a description of the QUEST III model, with a special emphasis on its innovation mechanisms, and offers an example of its application to the analysis of the impact of innovation policies in the EU. In particular, the results of the simulations of an ex-ante impact assessment of Horizon Europe Framework Programme 2021–2027 are presented and discussed.

Jan in 't Veld

Papers

Sovereign debt sustainability scenarios based on an estimated model for Spain

Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth

Growth Effects of Structural Reforms in Southern Europe: The case of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal

The Economic Impact of Single Market Membership on the EU Enlargement Countries

The QUEST III R&D Model