https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19010/1/cesifo1_wp1546.pdf

Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries: A re-examination

This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.

/pdf/will-business-cycles-in-the-euro-area-converge-a-critical-1q5ys3pkmk.pdf

Will business cycles in the euro area converge? a critical survey of empirical research

Are democracies more transparent than other types of political regimes? The answer to this question is often assumed to be yes. The contestability of elections and transparency of policy-making are however, analytically distinct concepts. We investigate theoretically the willingness of policy-makers to provide credible announcements of policy-relevant variables, and show that the availability (or absence) of that data is correlated with regime type, even after controlling for level of development, participation in IMF programs, country-specific effects, and the effects of time. Democracies are indeed more transparent.

/pdf/democracy-and-transparency-4r2x72ehl2.pdf

Democracy and Transparency

This paper analyzes if each European country presents business cycles that are similar enough to validate what some authors call the European cycle. Contrary to the majority of papers on business cycles, we concentrate on the appearance of the cycle, not on the synchronization. We provide a robust methodology for dating and characterizing business cycles and their phases and adopt the model-based cluster analysis to test the existence of an unique cluster (a common cycle) against more than one. We find evidence against a common cycle. Finally, we find no clear relation between similarities in business cycle appearance and synchronization across countries.

Do european business cycles look like one

We analyse regional business cycle synchronization in the Euro Area, using gross value added in 53 NUTS 1 regions for a period of 30 years (1975–2005), detrended by Hodrick–Prescott and the Christiano–Fitzgerald filters. We conclude that, on average, synchronization has increased for the period considered with exceptions during the eighties and the beginning of the nineties. Still, the correlation of the business cycle in some regions with the benchmark remained low or even decreased. Our findings also support the hypothesis of the existence of a ‘national border’ effect.

/pdf/regional-business-cycle-synchronization-in-europe-1ayc0ob7b5.pdf

Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe

Ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure and an honour for me to be speaking here, in London, at the invitation of the Journal of Common Market Studies, in front of such a distinguished audience. I am particularly happy to express my views on the already successful existence of the euro and monetary union, and the conditions and prospects for their further success. On 1 January 1999, a unique event in the history of Europe occurred. The euro was born and the irreversible nature of this change has convinced an increasing number of economic players that the success of the euro is necessary for Europe. It is a keystone of the European single market, which will ensure prosperity in Europe for the benefit of the rest of the world. I would like to draw your attention to why the euro and monetary union have been successful from the outset, and to the conditions and prospects for building on this success.

The Euro after Two Years

International policy coordination in the Euro area: Toward an economic and fiscal federation by exception

The Eurosystem established a single monetary policy and has the three guiding principles of independence, transparency, and decentralization. These three principles helped to successfully formulate and implement the euro on 1 January 2002. Major criticisms against establishment of the euro failed to come true and, in fact, the euro has quickly become a major currency in the world. Challenges facing continued success of the euro include structural reforms, financial stability, and the accession of new members to the EU and EMU.

Jean-Claude Trichet

Papers

The Euro after Two Years

International policy coordination in the Euro area: Toward an economic and fiscal federation by exception

The euro and the monetary union