In this essay, I begin by identifying the reasons that automation has not wiped out a majority of jobs over the decades and centuries. Automation does indeed substitute for laborâ��as it is typically intended to do. However, automation also complements labor, raises output in ways that leads to higher demand for labor, and interacts with adjustments in labor supply. Journalists and even expert commentators tend to overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities between automation and labor that increase productivity, raise earnings, and augment demand for labor. Changes in technology do alter the types of jobs available and what those jobs pay. In the last few decades, one noticeable change has been a "polarization" of the labor market, in which wage gains went disproportionately to those at the top and at the bottom of the income and skill distribution, not to those in the middle; however, I also argue, this polarization is unlikely to continue very far into future. The final section of this paper reflects on how recent and future advances in artificial intelligence and robotics should shape our thinking about the likely trajectory of occupational change and employment growth. I argue that the interplay between machine and human comparative advantage allows computers to substitute for workers in performing routine, codifiable tasks while amplifying the comparative advantage of workers in supplying problem-solving skills, adaptability, and creativity.

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.29.3.3

Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation

Why do firms cluster near one another? We test Marshall's theories of industrial agglomeration by examining which industries locate near one another, or coagglomerate. We construct pairwise coagglomeration indices for US manufacturing industries from the Economic Census. We then relate coagglomeration levels to the degree to which industry pairs share goods, labor, or ideas. To reduce reverse causality, where collocation drives input-output linkages or hiring patterns, we use data from UK industries and from US areas where the two industries are not collocated. All three of Marshall's theories of agglomeration are supported, with input-output linkages particularly important. (JEL L14, L60, O33, R23, R32)

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What Causes Industry Agglomeration? Evidence from Coagglomeration Patterns

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Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace

We examine the concerns that new technologies will render labor redundant in a framework in which tasks previously performed by labor can be automated and new versions of existing tasks, in which labor has a comparative advantage, can be created. In a static version where capital is fixed and technology is exogenous, automation reduces employment and the labor share, and may even reduce wages, while the creation of new tasks has the opposite effects. Our full model endogenizes capital accumulation and the direction of research towards automation and the creation of new tasks. If the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low, the long-run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks. Otherwise, there exists a stable balanced growth path in which the two types of innovations go hand-in-hand. Stability is a consequence of the fact that automation reduces the cost of producing using labor, and thus discourages further automation and encourages the creation of new tasks. In an extension with heterogeneous skills, we show that inequality increases during transitions driven both by faster automation and introduction of new tasks, and characterize the conditions under which inequality is increasing or stable in the long run.

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The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment

The original edition of this book summarized more than a decade of work on communications flow in science and engineering organizations, showing how human and organizational systems could be restructured to bring about improved productivity and better person-to-person contact. While many studies have been done since then, few of them invalidate the general conclusions and recommendations Allen offers. In a new preface he points out new developments, noting areas that need some modification, elaboration, or extension, and directing readers to the appropriate journal articles where the findings, are reported. The first three chapters provide an overview of the communication system in technology, present the author's research methods, and describe differences in the career paths and goals of engineers and scientists that cause special problems for organizations. The book then discusses how technological information is acquired by the R & D organization, shows how critical technical communication within the laboratory is for R & D performance, and originates the idea of the \"gatekeeper,\" the person who links his or her organization to the world at large. Concluding chapters take up the influence of formal and informal organization and of architecture and office layouts on communication. Many of these ideas have been successfully incorporated by architects and managers in the design of new R & D facilities and complexes. Suggested Citation Handle: RePEc:mtp:titles:0262510278 Download reference as HTML Thomas J. Allen, 1984. \"Managing the Flow of Technology: Technology Transfer and the Dissemination of Technological Information Within the R&D Organization,\" MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510278, November. More services and features MyIDEAS Follow serials, authors, keywords & more New papers by email Subscribe to new additions to RePEc Author registration Public profiles for Economics researchers MPRA Upload your paper to be listed on RePEc and IDEAS EconAcademics Blog aggregator for economics research Plagiarism Cases of plagiarism in Economics Rankings Various rankings of research in Economics & related fields RePEc Genealogy Who was a student of whom, using RePEc RePEc Biblio Curated articles & papers on various economics topics Job market papers RePEc working paper series dedicated to the job market Fantasy league Pretend you are at the helm of an economics department Services from the StL Fed Data, research, apps & more from the St. Louis Fed IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.

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Managing the Flow of Technology: Technology Transfer and the Dissemination of Technological Information Within the R&D Organization (Book Review)

We examine portage sites in the U.S. South, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest, including those on the fall line, a geomorphological feature in the southeastern U.S. marking the final rapids on rivers before the ocean. Historically, waterborne transport of goods required portage around the falls at these points, while some falls provided water power during early industrialization. These factors attracted commerce and manufacturing. Although these original advantages have long since been made obsolete, we document the continuing importance of these portage sites over time. We interpret these results as path dependence and contrast explanations based on sunk costs interacting with decreasing versus increasing returns to scale.

/pdf/portage-and-path-dependence-1417jz365k.pdf

Portage and Path Dependence

We present theory and evidence highlighting the role of natural amenities in neighborhood dynamics, suburbanization, and variation across cities in the persistence of the spatial distribution of income. Our model generates three predictions that we confirm using a novel database of consistent-boundary neighborhoods in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1880{2010, and spatial data for natural features such as coastlines and hills. First, persistent natural amenities anchor neighborhoods to high incomes over time. Second, naturally heterogeneous cities exhibit persistent spatial distributions of income. Third, downtown neighborhoods in coastal cities were less susceptible to the widespread decentralization of income in the mid-20th century and increased in income more quickly after 1980.

Natural amenities, neighborhood dynamics, and persistence in the spatial distribution of income

Thick-Market Effects and Churning in the Labor Market: Evidence from U.S. Cities

We present theory and evidence highlighting the role of natural amenities in neighbourhood dynamics, suburbanization, and variation across cities in the persistence of the spatial distribution of income. Our model generates three predictions that we confirm using a novel database of consistent-boundary neighbourhoods in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1880–2010, and spatial data for natural features such as coastlines and hills. First, persistent natural amenities anchor neighbourhoods to high incomes over time. Secondly, naturally heterogeneous cities exhibit persistent spatial distributions of income. Thirdly, downtown neighbourhoods in coastal cities were less susceptible to the widespread decentralization of income in the mid-twentieth century and experienced an increase in income more quickly after 1980.

Natural Amenities, Neighbourhood Dynamics, and Persistence in the Spatial Distribution of Income

Where does adaptation to innovation take place? I present evidence on the role of agglomeration economies in the application of new knowledge to production. All else equal, workers are more likely to be observed in new work in locations initially dense in college graduates and industry variety. This pattern is consistent with economies from the geographic concentration of factors and markets related to technological adaptation. A main contribution is a new measure, based on revisions to occupation classifications, that characterizes cross-sectional differences across cities in technological adaptation. Worker-level results also provide new evidence on the skill bias of recent innovations.

/pdf/technological-adaptation-cities-and-new-work-2j1x4jrrs8.pdf

Jeffrey Lin

Papers

Portage and Path Dependence

Natural amenities, neighborhood dynamics, and persistence in the spatial distribution of income

Thick-Market Effects and Churning in the Labor Market: Evidence from U.S. Cities

Natural Amenities, Neighbourhood Dynamics, and Persistence in the Spatial Distribution of Income

Technological Adaptation, Cities, and New Work