[1] Convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) control a substantial fraction of tropical rainfall variability. Their horizontal structures and dispersion characteristics correspond to Matsuno's (1966) solutions of the shallow water equations on an equatorial beta plane, namely, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertio-gravity waves. Because of moist processes, the tilted vertical structures of CCEWs are complex, and their scales do not correspond to that expected from the linear theory of dry waves. The dynamical structures and cloud morphology of CCEWs display a large degree of self-similarity over a surprisingly wide range of scales, with shallow convection at their leading edge, followed by deep convection and then stratiform precipitation, mirroring that of individual mesoscale convective complexes. CCEWs have broad impacts within the tropics, and their simulation in general circulation models is still problematic, although progress has been made using simpler models. A complete understanding of CCEWs remains a challenge in tropical meteorology.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2008RG000266

Convectively-coupled equatorial waves

Real-time forecasts of five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005 using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW) Model at grid spacings of 12 and 4 km revealed performance generally competitive with, and occasionally superior to, other operational forecasts for storm position and intensity. Recurring errors include 1) excessive intensification prior to landfall, 2) insufficient momentum exchange with the surface, and 3) inability to capture rapid intensification when observed. To address these errors several augmentations of the basic community model have been designed and tested as part of what is termed the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) model. Based on sensitivity simulations of Katrina, the inner-core structure, particularly the size of the eye, was found to be sensitive to model resolution and surface momentum exchange. The forecast of rapid intensification and the structure of convective bands in Katrina were not significantly improved until the grid spacing ap...

/pdf/prediction-of-landfalling-hurricanes-with-the-advanced-zhep826sm6.pdf

Prediction of Landfalling Hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF Model

Current understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity changes has been reviewed in this article. Recent studies in this area tend to focus on two issues: (1) what factors determine the maximum potential intensity (MPI) that a TC can achieve given the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere and the ocean? and (2) what factors prevent the TCs from reaching their MPIs? Although the MPI theories appear mature, recent studies of the so-called superintensity pose a potential challenge. It is notable that the maximum intensities reached by real TCs in all ocean basins are generally lower than those inferred from the theoretical MPI, indicating that internal dynamics and external forcing from environmental flow prohibit the TC intensification most and limit the TC intensity. It remains to be seen whether such factors can be included in improved MPI approaches.

/pdf/current-understanding-of-tropical-cyclone-structure-and-2sj5d9dwb6.pdf

Current understanding of tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes – a review

The asymmetric dynamics of the hurricane inner-core region is examined through a novel analysis of high temporal resolution, three-dimensional wind fields derived from airborne dual-Doppler radar. Seven consecutive composites of Hurricane Olivia’s (1994) wind field with 30-min time resolution depict a weakening storm undergoing substantial structural changes. The symmetric and asymmetric mechanisms involved in this transformation are considered separately. To zeroth order the weakening of the primary circulation is consistent with the axisymmetric vortex spindown theory of Eliassen and Lystad for a neutrally stratified atmosphere. Vertical shear, however, increased dramatically during the observation period, leading to a strong projection of the convection onto an azimuthal wavenumber 1 pattern oriented along the maximum vertical shear vector. Recent theoretical ideas elucidating the dynamics of vortices in vertical shear are used to help explain this asymmetry. The role of asymmetric vorticity d...

https://www.math.nyu.edu/caos_teaching/hurricanes/reasor00.pdf

Low-Wavenumber Structure and Evolution of the Hurricane Inner Core Observed by Airborne Dual-Doppler Radar

A new probabilistic clustering method, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone (TC) propagation in the western North Pacific (WNP). Seven clusters were obtained and described in Part I of this two-part study. In Part II, the present paper, the large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature associated with each of the clusters are investigated, as well as associations with the phase of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composite wind field maps over the WNP provide a physically consistent picture of each TC type, and of its seasonality. Anomalous vorticity and outgoing longwave radiation indicate changes in the monsoon trough associated with different types of TC genesis and trajectory. The steering winds at 500 hPa are more zonal in the straight-moving clusters, with larger meridional components in the recurving ones. Higher values of vertical wind shear in the midlatitudes also accompany the straight-moving tracks, compared to...

/pdf/cluster-analysis-of-typhoon-tracks-part-ii-large-scale-23hehb5ayq.pdf

Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part II: Large-Scale Circulation and ENSO

An elliptical eye that rotated cyclonically with a period of approximately 144 minutes in Typhoon Herb 1996 was documented. The elliptical region had a semimajor axis of 30 km and a semiminor axis of 20 km. Two complete periods of approximately 144 min were observed in the Doppler radar data. The rotation of the elliptical eye in the context of barotropic dynamics at three levels were explored: linear waves on a Rankin vortex, a nonlinear Kirchhoff vortex, and with a nonlinear spectral model. The linear wave theory involves the existence of both the high (potential) vorticity gradient near the eye edge and the cyclonic mean tangential flow in the typhoon. The propagation of (potential) vorticity waves in the cyclonic mean flow makes the elliptical eye rotate cyclonically. The rotation period is longer than the period of a parcel trajectory moving in the cyclonic mean flow around the circumference, because the vorticity wave propagates upwind. The nonlinear theory stems from the rotation of Kirchhoff’s vortex. Estimates of the eye rotation period from both linear and nonlinear theories agree with observations of the eye rotation period when the observed maximum wind from Herb is used. Nonlinear numerical computations suggest the importance of the interaction of neutral vorticity waves, which determine the shape and the rotation period of the eye. The calculations also support the rotation of the eye in approximately 144 min in the presence of axisymmetrization, vorticity redistribution, wave breaking, and vortex merging processes.

/pdf/a-possible-mechanism-for-the-eye-rotation-of-typhoon-herb-2kj40wcgrd.pdf

A Possible Mechanism for the Eye Rotation of Typhoon Herb

The interactions between monsoon circulations and tropical disturbances in the Northwest Pacific, where the low-level mean flow is westerly in the west and easterly in the east, are studied with a barotropic model. The authors’ model results suggest that the scale contraction by the confluent background flow, the nonlinear dynamics, the β effect, and the large-scale convergence are important for the energy and enstrophy accumulation near the region where the zonal flow reverses. The energy/enstrophy accumulation can be maintained with a continuous Rossby wave emanation upstream. The largest accumulation occurs when the emanating zonal wavelength is around 2000 km. Longer Rossby waves experience less scale contraction and nonlinear effects while shorter Rossby waves cannot hold a coherent structure against dispersive effects. The nonlinear energy/enstrophy accumulation mechanism is significantly different from previous linear energy accumulation theories. In the linear theories this is primarily a...

/pdf/rossby-waves-in-zonally-opposing-mean-flow-behavior-in-j4i3cvw4mx.pdf

Rossby Waves in Zonally Opposing Mean Flow: Behavior in Northwest Pacific Summer Monsoon

The impact of the island topographic β effect on hurricane-like vortex tracks is studied. Both f plane and spherical geometry without a mean flow are considered. The simulations used in this study indicate the existence of a track mode in which vortices are trapped by the topography and follow a clockwise island-circulating path. The trapping of a hurricane-like vortex can be interpreted in terms of the influence of the island topographic β effect on the vortex track. Experiments on the f plane indicate that the drift speed along the clockwise path is proportional to the square root of βevmax. The applicability of the square root law on the f plane is dependent on the degree to which the local βe effect is felt by the vortex. The experiments on the sphere also demonstrate that the speed along the clockwise path is larger for a vortex with a larger maximum wind vmax. The occurrence of hurricane-like vortex trapping, however, is not sensitive to the value of vmax. When there is no background flow, ...

Jen-Her Chen

Papers

A Possible Mechanism for the Eye Rotation of Typhoon Herb

Rossby Waves in Zonally Opposing Mean Flow: Behavior in Northwest Pacific Summer Monsoon

Topographic Effects on Barotropic Vortex Motion: No Mean Flow