Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a viral disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The spread of COVID-19 seems to have a detrimental effect on the global economy and health. A positive chest X-ray of infected patients is a crucial step in the battle against COVID-19. Early results suggest that abnormalities exist in chest X-rays of patients suggestive of COVID-19. This has led to the introduction of a variety of deep learning systems and studies have shown that the accuracy of COVID-19 patient detection through the use of chest X-rays is strongly optimistic. Deep learning networks like convolutional neural networks (CNNs) need a substantial amount of training data. Because the outbreak is recent, it is difficult to gather a significant number of radiographic images in such a short time. Therefore, in this research, we present a method to generate synthetic chest X-ray (CXR) images by developing an Auxiliary Classifier Generative Adversarial Network (ACGAN) based model called CovidGAN. In addition, we demonstrate that the synthetic images produced from CovidGAN can be utilized to enhance the performance of CNN for COVID-19 detection. Classification using CNN alone yielded 85% accuracy. By adding synthetic images produced by CovidGAN,the accuracy increased to 95%. We hope this method will speed up COVID-19 detection and lead to more robust systems of radiology.

CovidGAN: Data Augmentation Using Auxiliary Classifier GAN for Improved Covid-19 Detection

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and these models are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models need to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) and susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) models. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP; and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior across nations, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research. This paper further suggests that a genuine novelty in outbreak prediction can be realized by integrating machine learning and SEIR models.

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COVID-19 outbreak prediction with machine learning

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), an infectious epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, as Pandemic in March 2020. It has affected more than 40 million people in 216 countries. Almost in all the affected countries, the number of infected and deceased patients has been enhancing at a distressing rate. As the early prediction can reduce the spread of the virus, it is highly desirable to have intelligent prediction and diagnosis tools. The inculcation of efficient forecasting and prediction models may assist the government in implementing better design strategies to prevent the spread of virus. In this paper, a state-of-the-art analysis of the ongoing machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) methods in the diagnosis and prediction of COVID-19 has been done. Moreover, a comparative analysis on the impact of machine learning and other competitive approaches like mathematical and statistical models on COVID-19 problem has been conducted. In this study, some factors such as type of methods(machine learning, deep learning, statistical & mathematical) and the impact of COVID research on the nature of data used for the forecasting and prediction of pandemic using computing approaches has been presented. Finally some important research directions for further research on COVID-19 are highlighted which may facilitate the researchers and technocrats to develop competent intelligent models for the prediction and forecasting of COVID-19 real time data.

Role of intelligent computing in COVID-19 prognosis: A state-of-the-art review.

Data-driven dynamic clustering framework for mitigating the adverse economic impact of Covid-19 lockdown practices

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which was firstly reported in China, has affected many countries worldwide To understand and predict the transmission dynamics of this disease, mathematical models can be very effective It has been shown that the fractional order is related to the memory effects, which seems to be more effective for modeling the epidemic diseases Motivated by this, in this paper, we propose fractional-order susceptible individuals, asymptomatic infected, symptomatic infected, recovered, and deceased (SEIRD) model for the spread of COVID-19 We consider both classical and fractional-order models and estimate the parameters by using the real data of Italy, reported by the World Health Organization The results show that the fractional-order model has less root-mean-square error than the classical one Finally, the prediction ability of both of the integer- and fractional-order models is evaluated by using a test data set The results show that the fractional model provides a closer forecast to the real data

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A fractional-order model for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak has been treated as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. This work made an early prediction of the 2019-nCoV outbreak in China based on a simple mathematical model and limited epidemiological data. Combing characteristics of the historical epidemic, we found part of the released data is unreasonable. Through ruling out the unreasonable data, the model predictions exhibit that the number of the cumulative 2019-nCoV cases may reach 76,000 to 230,000, with a peak of the unrecovered infectives (22,000-74,000) occurring in late February to early March. After that, the infected cases will rapidly monotonically decrease until early May to late June, when the 2019-nCoV outbreak will fade out. Strong anti-epidemic measures may reduce the cumulative infected cases by 40%-49%. The improvement of medical care can also lead to about one-half transmission decrease and effectively shorten the duration of the 2019-nCoV.

Jing Li

Papers

Early Prediction of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in the Mainland China Based on Simple Mathematical Model

Distinct tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly regimes enhanced under recent global warming