https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00457602/document

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year–1) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year–1 from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year–1 partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year–1. Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year–1, with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.

/pdf/a-large-and-persistent-carbon-sink-in-the-world-s-forests-2rgrfjaqnh.pdf

A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests

https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/jrnl/2011/nrs_2011_pan_002-supporting.pdf

Supporting Online Material for A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's Forests

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

/pdf/on-underestimation-of-global-vulnerability-to-tree-mortality-1w5zrntf70.pdf

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000–2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization. As the global climate changes, drought is expected to reduce productivity and tree survival across many forests; however, the relative influence of climate variables on forest decline remains poorly understood. A drought-stress index based on tree-ring data—newly developed for the southwestern United States—is found to be equally influenced by evaporation (primarily temperature driven) and precipitation and may serve as a holistic forest-vigour indicator in water-limited forests.

/pdf/temperature-as-a-potent-driver-of-regional-forest-drought-2863dp07a0.pdf

Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality

Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. Our analyses of longitudinal data from unmanaged old forests in the western United States showed that background (noncatastrophic) mortality rates have increased rapidly in recent decades, with doubling periods ranging from 17 to 29 years among regions. Increases were also pervasive across elevations, tree sizes, dominant genera, and past fire histories. Forest density and basal area declined slightly, which suggests that increasing mortality was not caused by endogenous increases in competition. Because mortality increased in small trees, the overall increase in mortality rates cannot be attributed solely to aging of large trees. Regional warming and consequent increases in water deficits are likely contributors to the increases in tree mortality rates.

/pdf/widespread-increase-of-tree-mortality-rates-in-the-western-2otdmdwjes.pdf

Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States

Vegetation changes can strongly influence the hydrological cycle, including streamflow, but the effects of plant diseases have seldom been described. In the mid-20th century, the invasion of an exotic disease, white pine blister rust, precipitated widespread mortality of western white pine (WWP; Pinus monticola Dougl.) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. These events converted a forest dominated by white pine into one dominated by more shade-tolerant tree species. The long-term hydrological implications of this historical shift in forest composition have not been adequately explored, in part because collocated long-term vegetation, meteorology, and hydrology data are rare. We assembled long-term streamflow, climate, and vegetation records for a small (4.0 km2) forested watershed in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains. We used a minimally-calibrated, physically-based model to simulate historical changes in the water budget based on observed vegetation changes along with the historical climate. The observed hydrological anomalies were attributed to a combination of white pine blister rust induced tree mortality, harvest, and eventual species replacement. Small increases in streamflow began in the basin in the 1940s, when the basal area of WWP began to decrease. More dramatic increases in streamflow started after harvesting began in 1966. Based on both observations and modeling, streamflow increased by ∼131–179 mm between the 1940s and the 2000s (30–40% of the 2000s’ streamflow) in contrast to documented regional streamflow declines. Approximately 1/3 of the flow changes were attributed to blister rust and 2/3 to harvest, as shade-tolerant species instead of WWP regenerated in response to both. This study highlights the importance of long-term ecohydrological data, which made it possible to detect the influence of the invasion of an exotic pathogen against a backdrop of periodic timber harvest. It also showed that the species replacement after these disturbances caused long-term changes in the flow regime, providing a clear and relevant example of how land cover changes can affect interannual hydrological dynamics. 

White pine blister rust, logging, and species replacement increased streamflow in a montane watershed in the northern Rockies, USA

Response to "Do dead trees tell tales?" - Johnson et al.'s critique of van Mantgem et al.'s "Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States"

John C. Byrne

Papers

Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States

White pine blister rust, logging, and species replacement increased streamflow in a montane watershed in the northern Rockies, USA

Response to "Do dead trees tell tales?" - Johnson et al.'s critique of van Mantgem et al.'s "Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States"