For comments on an earlier draft of this chapter and for detailed advice I am indebted to Robert M. Hauser, Halliman H. Winsborough, and Toni Richards, several anonymous reviewers, and the editor of this volume. I also wish to thank John Raisian, Nancy Rytina, and Barbara Mann for their comments and Mark Wilson for able research assistance. The opinions expressed here are the sole responsibility of the author.

Asymptotic Confidence Intervals for Indirect Effects in Structural Equation Models

This paper is about the logic of interpreting recursive causal theories in sociology. We review the distinction between associations and effects and discuss the decomposition of effects into direct and indirect components. We then describe a general method for decomposing effects into their components by the systematic application of ordinary least squares regression. The method involves successive computation of reduced-form equations, beginning with an equation containing only exogenous variables, then computing equations which add intervening variables in sequence from cause to effect. This generates all the information required to decompose effects into their various direct and indirect parts. This method is a substitute for the often more cumbersome computation of indirect effects from the structural coefficients (direct effects) of the causal model Finally, we present a way of summarizing this information in tabular form and illustrate the procedures using an empirical example.

https://faculty.washington.edu/matsueda/courses/529/Readings/Alwin%20and%20Hauser%201975.pdf

The Decomposition of Effects in Path Analysis

How successfully children adapt to the routine of schooling in the first grade or two likely has long-term implications for their cognitive and affective development. This study aims to understand how home and school factors either facilitate or impede this process of adaptation by examining longitudinal data on cognitive performance for a large and diverse sample of youngsters over grades 1 and 2 in Baltimore City Public Schools. Report-card marks in reading and mathematics and scores on verbal and quantitative subtests of the California Achievement Test (CAT) battery over the 2-year period are the achievement criteria. The analysis directs attention to some of the social-structural (socioeconomic background, gender, and minority/majority status) and social-psychological (significant others and self-reactions) factors that shape youngsters' development during this period, as measured by changes in their cognitive standing. Racial comparisons (black youngsters vs. white) and comparisons by school year (first vs. second) highlight some key differences in the transition to full-time schooling. We find more numerous social-structural and social-psychological influences on CAT gains over the first year than over the second, and fall to spring stability in testing levels is more pronounced in the second year than in the first. This pattern identifies the first year of schooling as a period of considerable consequence for shaping subsequent achievement trajectories, and, for this reason, it may be especially important as a key to understanding black-white achievement differences. Minority and majority youngsters in this sample began school with similar CAT averages, but, by the end of the first year, blacks' performances lagged noticeably behind those of whites, and the cleavage widened over the second year. Blacks also received lower report-card marks than whites. This, along with smaller CAT gains, reveals that the transition to school is more problematic for blacks than it is for whites. We also observed stronger persistence of blacks' marks from one period to the next, indicating that recovering from these initial difficulties is more challenging. Social-psychological aspects of these early achievement patterns also differ by race in important ways: blacks' achievements are less influenced by parent variables than are those of whites, and black youngsters' self-expectations are less affected by the expectations held for them by their parents than are those of whites. These results and others are discussed in terms of their implications for students' development and for what they reveal about social structure in relation to the early schooling process.

Achievement in the First 2 Years of School: Patterns and Processes

Asymptotic confidence intervals for indirect effects in structural

Effects of children's classroom behavior on school performance over a 4-year period are examined for a large, representative panel of beginning first graders. Scales developed from homeroom teachers' ratings of children in the spring of their first, second, and fourth years of school are used to predict spring marks in reading and math and spring scores on verbal and quantitative subtests from the CAT battery. The teachers' ratings cluster in three domains: Interest-Participation (I-P), Cooperation-Compliance (C-C), and Attention Span-Restlessness (A-R). The I-P and A-R ratings, but not C-C ratings, affect test score gains in first grade and marks in all 3 years. Behavior ratings from Year 1 also affect Year 2 and Year 4 performance, with indications that effects are understated over single-year periods. The importance of assessing classroom behavior in a longitudinal framework that allows for lagged and cumulative effects is discussed.

First-grade classroom behavior: its short- and long-term consequences for school performance.

The indirect effect in path analysis has been defined as equal to the difference between the correlation coefficient and the path coefficient. This definition has led to ambiguous and inconsistent ...

John M. Finney

Papers

Indirect Effects in Path Analysis