Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research

This article surveys the literature on tourism and economic development, identifying the contribution that tourism can make to development, including foreign currency, income and employment, and the costs that it entails. Single equation and system of equations models for estimating tourism demand are provided, indicating developing countries’ potential to benefit from increasing expenditure on tourism but their susceptibility to deterioration in price competitiveness. The main sectors of tourism supply ‐transportation, tour operators, travel agents and accommodation ‐are examined and the importance of cross‐country integration between firms is highlighted. The article argues that many of the problems associated with the use of environmental resources for tourism stem from market failure, and it considers methods for increasing, sustainably, the returns from them.

Tourism and economic development: A survey

Like many developing countries, Turkey has also given priority to the development of tourism industry as a part of its economic growth strategy. This study intends to investigate whether tourism has really contributed to the economic growth in Turkey. The interaction between tourism and economic growth is investigated by making use of leveraged bootstrap causality tests. This method is robust to the existence of non-normality and ARCH effects. Special attention is given to the choice of the optimal lag order of the empirical model. It is found that the tourism-led growth hypothesis is supported empirically in the case of Turkey.

Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?

An article in the Spring 1994 issue of this journal reported the results of a survey that examined the practices of 85 empirical studies of international tourism demand. This article reports a review of the findings of these studies. It concludes that findings vary widely and points to research that may clarify results.

Joln L. Crompton

Papers

Determinants of demand for international tourist flows to Turkey.