This article suggested and analyzed the transmission dynamics of malaria disease in a population using a nonlinear mathematical model. The deterministic compartmental model was examined using stability theory of differential equations. The reproduction number was obtained to be asymptotically stable conditions for the disease-free, and the endemic equilibria were determined. Moreso, the qualitatively evaluated model incorporates time-dependent variable controls which was aimed at reducing the proliferation of malaria disease. The optimal control problem was formulated using Pontryagin’s maximum principle, and three control strategies: disease prevention through bed nets, treatment and insecticides were incorporated. The optimality system was stimulated using an iterative technique of forward-backward Runge-Kutta fourth order scheme, so that the impacts of the control strategies on the infected individuals in the population can be determined. The possible influence of exploring a single control, the combination of two, and the three controls on the spread of the disease was also investigated. Numerical simulation was carried out and pertinent findings are displayed graphically.

Mathematical modeling of malaria disease with control strategy

Dynamics of an age-structured two-strain model for malaria transmission

The mathematical modeling of malaria disease has a crucial role in understanding the insights of the transmission dynamics and corresponding appropriate prevention strategies. In this study, a novel nonlinear mathematical model for malaria disease has been proposed. To prevent the disease, we divided the infected population into two groups, unaware and aware infected individuals. The growth rate of awareness programs impacting the population is assumed to be proportional to the unaware infected individuals. It is further assumed that, due to the effect of awareness campaign, the aware infected individuals avoid contact with mosquitoes. The positivity and the boundedness of solutions have been derived through the completing differential process. Local and global stability analysis of disease-free equilibrium has been investigated via basic reproductive number R0, if R0 < 1, the system is stable otherwise unstable. The existence of the unique endemic equilibrium has been also determined under certain conditions. The solution to the proposed model is derived through an iterative numerical technique, the Runge–Kutta method. The proposed model is simulated for different numeric values of the population of humans and anopheles in each class. The results show that a significant increase in the population of susceptible humans is achieved in addition to the decrease in the population of the infected mosquitoes.

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Impact of Awareness to Control Malaria Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Analysis of an Age-Structured Malaria Model Incorporating Infants and Pregnant Women

Dengue is a serious health problem in the Philippines. In 2016, the Department of Health of the country launched a dengue vaccination campaign using Dengvaxia. However, the campaign was mired with controversy and the use of Dengvaxia was banned in the country. This study proposes a mathematical model that represents the dynamics of the transmission of dengue with its four strains. Considering that the Dengvaxia vaccine was intended to be given only to people aging from 9 to 45 years old, the human population is divided into two age groups: from 9-45 years old and the rest of the population. Using this model and optimal control theory we simulate what could have been the effect of Dengvaxia in the number of dengue cases and then compare this with the other usual dengue intervention strategies. Results show that the best implementation of the usual strategies is better than that of Dengvaxia.

Multi-Strain Age-Structured Dengue Transmission Model: Analysis and Optimal Control

n this paper, we propose a model to study the dynamics of malaria in an age-structured human host. Our model divides the human population into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. The results of our mathematical analysis indicate that the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable and occurs whenever the basic reproduction number R 0 is less than unity. For R 0 > 1, the disease-free equilibrium point is unstable. Using published demographic epidemiological parameters, our numerical simulations suggest that a unique, stable endemic equilibrium exists.

Jose Ernie

Papers

Analysis of age-structured malaria transmission model