Showing papers by "Joshua D. Angrist published in 1990"

Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records: Errata

Abstract: The randomly assigned risk of induction generated by the draft lottery is used to construct estimates of the effect of veteran status on civilian earnings. These estimates are not biased by the fact that certain types of men are more likely than others to service in the military. Social Security administrative records indicate that, in the early 1980s, long after their service in Vietnam had ended, the earnings of white veterans were approximately 15 percent less than the earnings of comparable nonveterans. Copyright 1990 by American Economic Association.

The Effect of Age at School Entry on Educational Attainment: An Application of Instrumental Variables with Moments from Two Samples

Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis that compulsory school attendance laws, which typically require school attendance until a specified birthday, induce a relationship between the years of schooling and age at school entry. Variation in school start age created by children's date of birth provides a natural experiment for estimation of the effect of age at school entry. Because no large data set contains information on both age at school entry and educational attainment, we use an Instrumental Variables (IV) estimator with data derived from the 1960 and 1980 Censuses to test the age-at-entry/compulsory schooling model. In most IV applications, the two covariance matrices that form the estimator are constructed from the same sample. We use a method of moments framework to discuss IV estimators that combine moments from different data sets. In our application, quarter of birth dummies are the instrumental variables used to link the 1960 Census, from which age at school entry can be derived for one cohort of students, to the 1980 Census, which contains educational attainment for the same cohort of students. The results suggest that roughly 10 percent of students were constrained to stay in school by compulsory schooling laws.

Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings

Abstract: This paper presents evidence showing that individuals' season of birth is related to their educational attainment because of the combined effects of school start age policy and compulsory school attendance laws In most school districts, individuals born in the beginning of the year start school at a slightly older age, and therefore are eligible to drop out of school after completing fewer years of schooling than individuals born near the end of the year Our estimates suggest that as many as 25 percent of potential dropouts remain in school because of compulsory schooling laws We estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings by using quarter of birth as an instrumental variable for education in an earnings equation This provides a valid identification strategy because date of birth is unlikely to be correlated with omitted earnings determinants The instrumental variables estimate of the rate of return to education is remarkably close to the ordinary least squares estimate, suggesting that there is little ability bias in conventional estimates of the return to education The results also imply that individuals who are compelled to attend school longer than they desire by compulsory schooling laws reap a substantial return for their extra schooling

Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings

Abstract: This paper presents evidence showing that individuals' season of birth is related to their educational attainment because of the combined effects of school start age policy and compulsory school attendance laws. In most school districts, individuals born in the beginning of the year start school at a slightly older age, and therefore are eligible to drop out of school after completing fewer years of schooling than individuals born near the end of the year. Our estimates suggest that as many as 25 percent of potential dropouts remain in school because of compulsory schooling laws. We estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings by using quarter of birth as an instrumental variable for education in an earnings equation. This provides a valid identification strategy because date of birth is unlikely to be correlated with omitted earnings determinants. The instrumental variables estimate of the rate of return to education is remarkably close to the ordinary least squares estimate, suggesting that there is little ability bias in conventional estimates of the return to education. The results also imply that individuals who are compelled to attend school longer than they desire by compulsory schooling laws reap a substantial return for their extra schooling.

The Draft Lottery and Voluntary Enlistment in the Vietnam Era

Abstract: A combination of voluntary enlistment, armed forces eligibility criteria, and the failure of draftees to avoid conscription jointly determined the racial composition of the Vietnam-era armed forces. Administrative data show that men with draft lottery numbers that put them at high risk of conscription are overrepresented among men who voluntarily enlisted in the military, but that the effect of the lottery on enlistment is stronger for whites than for nonwhites. Minimum Chi-Square estimates of enlistment models for the 1971 draft lottery suggest that nonwhites were more likely than whites to prefer enlistment to a civilian career. This finding appears to explain racial differences in the effect of the lottery on enlistment. Contrary to the findings of a recent congressional study, the Vietnam-era estimates presented here suggest that conscription of a relatively small number of whites and nonwhites in a manner proportional to their prevalence in the population might substantially reduce nonwhite representation in the armed forces.

The Effect of Age at School Entry on Educational Attainment: An Application of Instrumental Variables with Moments from Two Samples

Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis that compulsory school attendance laws, which typically require school attendance until a specified birthday, induce a relationship between years of schooling and age at school entry Variation in school start age created by children's date of birth provides a natural experiment for estimation of the effect of age at school entry Because no large data set contains information on both age at school entry and educational attainment, we use an Instrumental Variables (IV) estimator with data derived from the 1960 and 1980 Censuses to test the age-at-entry/compulsory schooling model In most IV applications, the two covariance matrices that form the estimator are constructed from the same sample We use a method of moments framework to discuss IV estimators that combine moments from different data sets In our application, quarter of birth dummies are the instrumental variables used to link the 1960 Census, from which age at school entry can be derived for one cohort of students, to the 1980 Census, which contains educational attainment for the same cohort of students The results suggest that roughly l0 percent of students were constrained to stay in school by compulsory schooling laws

The Draft Lottery and Voluntary Enlistment in the Vietnam Era

Abstract: A combination of voluntary enlistment, armed forces eligibility criteria, and the failure of draftees to avoid conscription jointly determined the racial composition of the Vietnam-era armed forces. Administrative data show that men with draft lottery numbers that put them at high risk of conscription are overrepresented among men who voluntarily enlisted in the military, but that the effect of the lottery on enlistment is stronger for whites than for nonwhites. Minimum Chi-Square estimates of enlistment models for the 1971 draft lottery suggest that nonwhites were more likely than whites to prefer enlistment to a civilian career. This finding appears to explain racial differences in the effect of the lottery on enlistment. Contrary to the findings of a recent congressional study, the Vietnam-era estimates presented here suggest that conscription of a relatively small number of whites and nonwhites in a manner proportional to their prevalence in the population might substantially reduce nonwhite representation in the armed forces.

The Effect of Veterans Benefits on Veterans' Education and Earnings

Abstract: The majority of armed forces veterans make use of the subsidized training and educational benefits provided by the Department of Veterans Affairs. The effect of veterans benefits on educational attainment am civilian earnings is estimated here using the Census Bureau's 1987 Survey of Veterans. Two identification strategies are employed to control for unobserved characteristics that are correlated with educational attainment and benefit usage. First, a fixed effects strategy is implemented by exploiting information on educational attainment at the time of entry to service. Second, instrumental variables estimates are computed, where the excluded instruments are interactions between period of service am educational attainment at entry to service. The effect of veterans benefits on earnings is estimated by decomposing the return to education into a return to the grade completed at entry to service and a return to the post-entry grade increment. Veterans benefits are estimated to increase schooling by roughly 1.4 years and the grade increment is worth roughly 4.3 percent, so that veterans benefits raise annual earnings by approximately 6 percent. This premium appears to accrue primarily to the 77 percent of benefit users who attended college or graduate school.

Does Labor Supply Explain Fluctuations in Average Hours Worked

Abstract: Economists have long debated over what labor supply has to do with fluctuations in hours worked. This paper uses a time series of cross-sections from the 1964-88 Current Population Surveys to study whether microeconomic intertemporal substitution models can explain time series fluctuations in annual averages. Conditional on a parametric trend, labor supply equations fit the 1975-87 data remarkably well. But estimates for 1963-74 are not robust, and estimated labor supply elasticities are much lower in the earlier period.

Does Labor Supply Explain Fluctuations in Average Hours Worked

Abstract: Economists have long debated over what labor supply has to do with fluctuations in hours worked. This paper uses a time series of cross-sections from the 1964-88 Current Population Surveys to study whether microeconomic intertemporal substitution models can explain time series fluctuations in annual averages. Conditional on a parametric trend, labor supply equations fit the 1975-87 data remarkably well. But estimates for 1963-74 are not robust, and estimated labor supply elasticities are much lower in the earlier period.