Showing papers by "Joshua D. Angrist published in 2016"
TL;DR: This article used admissions lotteries to estimate effects of attendance at Boston's charter high schools on college preparation and enrollment, finding that charters induce a substantial shift from 2-to 4-year institutions, though the effect on overall college enrollment is modest.
Abstract: We use admissions lotteries to estimate effects of attendance at Boston’s charter high schools on college preparation and enrollment. Charter schools increase pass rates on Massachusetts’ high-stakes exit exam, with large effects on the likelihood of qualifying for a state-sponsored scholarship. Charter attendance also boosts SAT scores sharply and increases the likelihood of taking an Advanced Placement (AP) exam, the number of AP exams taken, and AP scores. Charters induce a substantial shift from 2- to 4-year institutions, though the effect on overall college enrollment is modest. Charter effects on college-related outcomes are strongly correlated with charter effects on earlier tests.
87 citations
TL;DR: The authors developed a grandfathering instrument for takeover attendance that compares students at schools designated for takeover with a matched sample of students attending similar schools not yet taken over, and found that grandfathered students see achievement gains at least as large as the gains for students assigned charter seats in lotteries.
Abstract: Charter takeovers are traditional public schools restarted as charter schools. We develop a grandfathering instrument for takeover attendance that compares students at schools designated for takeover with a matched sample of students attending similar schools not yet taken over. Grandfathering estimates from New Orleans show substantial gains from takeover enrollment. In Boston, grandfathered students see achievement gains at least as large as the gains for students assigned charter seats in lotteries. A non-charter Boston turnaround intervention that had much in common with the takeover strategy generated gains as large as those seen for takeovers, while other more modest turnaround interventions yielded smaller effects.
75 citations
TL;DR: This paper found that after receiving a scholarship, randomly selected recipients were 13 percentage points more likely to enroll in college than control recipients, and that the enrollment effects were larger for groups with historically low college attendance and students with low high school GPAs.
Abstract: This paper reports updated findings from a randomized evaluation of a generous, privately-funded scholarship program for Nebraska public college students. Scholarship offers boosted college enrollment and persistence. Four years after award receipt, randomly-selected scholarship winners were 13 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in college. Enrollment effects were larger for groups with historically low college attendance, including nonwhite students, first-generation college-goers, and students with low high school GPAs. Scholarships shifted many students from two- to four-year colleges, reducing associate’s degree completion in the process. Despite their substantial gains in four-year college enrollment, award winners from the first study cohort were slightly less likely to graduate on time than control applicants, suggesting that scholarships delay degree completion for some students. Projected graduation rates using the last cohort of pre-experimental scholarship applicants indicate that scholarships are likely to increase bachelor’s degree completion within five years.
46 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: Instrumental variables (IV) estimates show strong class size effects in Southern Italy as discussed by the authors, which is distinguished by manipulation of standardized test scores as well as by economic disadvantage, and they argue that score manipulation is a consequence of teacher shirking.
Abstract: Instrumental variables (IV) estimates show strong class size effects in Southern Italy. But Italy's Mezzogiorno is distinguished by manipulation of standardized test scores as well as by economic disadvantage. IV estimates suggest small classes increase manipulation. We argue that score manipulation is a consequence of teacher shirking. IV estimates of a causal model for achievement as function of class size and score manipulation show that class size effects on measured achievement are driven entirely by the relationship between class size and manipulation. These results show how consequential score manipulation can arise even in assessment systems with few accountability concerns.
39 citations
01 Jul 2016
TL;DR: This paper developed a grandfathering instrument for takeover attendance that compares students at schools designated for takeover with a matched sample of students attending similar schools not yet taken over, and found that grandfathered students see achievement gains at least as large as the gains for students assigned charter seats in lotteries.
Abstract: Charter takeovers are traditional public schools restarted as charter schools. We develop a grandfathering instrument for takeover attendance that compares students at schools designated for takeover with a matched sample of students attending similar schools not yet taken over. Grandfathering estimates from New Orleans show substantial gains from takeover enrollment. In Boston, grandfathered students see achievement gains at least as large as the gains for students assigned charter seats in lotteries. A non-charter Boston turnaround intervention that had much in common with the takeover strategy generated gains as large as those seen for takeovers, while other more modest turnaround interventions yielded smaller effects.
36 citations
TL;DR: This paper developed over-identification tests that use admissions lotteries to assess the predictive value of regression-based value-added models (VAMs), which have degrees of freedom equal to the number of quasi-experiments available to estimate school effects.
Abstract: We develop over-identification tests that use admissions lotteries to assess the predictive value of regression-based value-added models (VAMs). These tests have degrees of freedom equal to the number of quasi-experiments available to estimate school effects. By contrast, previously implemented VAM validation strategies look at a single restriction only, sometimes said to measure forecast bias. Tests of forecast bias may be misleading when the test statistic is constructed from many lotteries or quasi-experiments, some of which have weak first stage effects on school attendance. The theory developed here is applied to data from the Charlotte-Mecklenberg School district analyzed by Deming (2014).
18 citations
01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: The authors used admissions lotteries to estimate effects of attendance at Boston's charter high schools on college preparation and enrollment, finding that charters induce a substantial shift from 2-to 4-year institutions, though the effect on overall college enrollment is modest.
Abstract: We use admissions lotteries to estimate effects of attendance at Boston’s charter high schools on college preparation and enrollment. Charter schools increase pass rates on Massachusetts’ high-stakes exit exam, with large effects on the likelihood of qualifying for a state-sponsored scholarship. Charter attendance also boosts SAT scores sharply and increases the likelihood of taking an Advanced Placement (AP) exam, the number of AP exams taken, and AP scores. Charters induce a substantial shift from 2- to 4-year institutions, though the effect on overall college enrollment is modest. Charter effects on college-related outcomes are strongly correlated with charter effects on earlier tests.
01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors constructed the ordered propensity score model p(zt, ψ) for predicting the risk-adjusted expected change in the federal funds rate target based on futures prices for months in which there was an FOMC meeting scheduled.
Abstract: This section discusses the construction of st , the indicator of the risk-adjusted expected change in the federal funds rate target based on futures prices for months in which there was an FOMC meeting scheduled. Notice that this variable is a key ingredient of the vector zt when we construct the ordered propensity score model p(zt, ψ). The discussion in this section borrows many elements from Hamilton (2008). Using the same notation as in the previous section, the effective federal funds rate observed on day k of month t can be described as rt,k = rt,k + ut,k