Simulation and the monte carlo method

Due to its reduced communication overhead and robustness to failures, distributed energy management is of paramount importance in smart grids, especially in microgrids, which feature distributed generation (DG) and distributed storage (DS). Distributed economic dispatch for a microgrid with high renewable energy penetration and demand-side management operating in grid-connected mode is considered in this paper. To address the intrinsically stochastic availability of renewable energy sources (RES), a novel power scheduling approach is introduced. The approach involves the actual renewable energy as well as the energy traded with the main grid, so that the supply-demand balance is maintained. The optimal scheduling strategy minimizes the microgrid net cost, which includes DG and DS costs, utility of dispatchable loads, and worst-case transaction cost stemming from the uncertainty in RES. Leveraging the dual decomposition, the optimization problem formulated is solved in a distributed fashion by the local controllers of DG, DS, and dispatchable loads. Numerical results are reported to corroborate the effectiveness of the novel approach.

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Robust Energy Management for Microgrids With High-Penetration Renewables

ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction

On comparing three artificial neural networks for wind speed forecasting

We present a two-stage stochastic programming model for committing reserves in systems with large amounts of wind power. We describe wind power generation in terms of a representative set of appropriately weighted scenarios, and we present a dual decomposition algorithm for solving the resulting stochastic program. We test our scenario generation methodology on a model of California consisting of 122 generators, and we show that the stochastic programming unit commitment policy outperforms common reserve rules.

Reserve Requirements for Wind Power Integration: A Scenario-Based Stochastic Programming Framework

This paper proposes a methodology to determine the required level of spinning and nonspinning reserves in a power system with a high penetration of wind power. The computation of the required reserve levels and their costs is achieved through a stochastic programming market-clearing model spanning a daily time horizon. This model considers the network constraints and takes into account the cost of both the load shedding and the wind spillage. The methodology proposed is illustrated using an example and a realistic case study. Some conclusions are finally drawn.

Economic Valuation of Reserves in Power Systems With High Penetration of Wind Power

This paper presents a technique to derive the best offering strategy for a wind power producer in an electricity market that includes various trading floors. Uncertainty pertaining to wind availability, market prices at the different trading stages, and balancing energy needs are properly taken into account. Risk on profit variability is suitably controlled at the cost of a small reduction in expected profit. The proposed technique translates into a linear programming problem of moderate size, which is readily solvable using commercially available software. A variety of numerical case studies demonstrate the interest and effectiveness of the proposed technique. Appropriate conclusions are duly drawn.

Short-Term Trading for a Wind Power Producer

A probabilistic power flow model that takes into account spatially correlated power sources and loads is proposed. It is particularly appropriate to assess the impact of intermittent generators such as wind power ones on a power network. The proposed model is solved using an extended point estimate method that accounts for dependencies among the input random variables (i.e. loads and power sources). The proposed probabilistic power flow model is illustrated through 24-bus and 118-bus case studies. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Probabilistic power flow with correlated wind sources

A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

To make informed decisions in futures markets of electric energy, stochastic programming models are commonly used. Such models treat stochastic processes via a set of scenarios, which are plausible realizations throughout the decision-making horizon of the stochastic processes. The number of scenarios needed to accurately represent the uncertainty involved is generally large, which may render the associated stochastic programming problem intractable. Hence, scenario reduction techniques are needed to trim down the number of scenarios while keeping most of the stochastic information embedded in such scenarios. This paper proposes a novel scenario reduction procedure that advantageously compares with existing ones for electricity-market problems tackled via two-stage stochastic programming.

Juan M. Morales

Papers

Economic Valuation of Reserves in Power Systems With High Penetration of Wind Power

Short-Term Trading for a Wind Power Producer

Probabilistic power flow with correlated wind sources

A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

Scenario Reduction for Futures Market Trading in Electricity Markets