计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

N G van Kampen 1981 Amsterdam: North-Holland xiv + 419 pp price Dfl 180 This is a book which, at a lower price, could be expected to become an essential part of the library of every physical scientist concerned with problems involving fluctuations and stochastic processes, as well as those who just enjoy a beautifully written book. It provides an extensive graduate-level introduction which is clear, cautious, interesting and readable.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0031-9112/34/4/040/pdf

Stochastic Processes in Physics and Chemistry

▶ Addresses a wide range of timely environment, economic and energy topics ▶ A forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales ▶ Contributes to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated ▶ 94% of authors who answered a survey reported that they would definitely publish or probably publish in the journal again

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

In this Chapter, we imagine a decision maker (or a group of experts) trying to establish or examine fair procedures to combine opinions about alternatives related to different points of view.

Multiple criteria decision making

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Linear And Nonlinear Programming

A Bayesian measure of evidence for precise hypotheses is presented. The inte n- tion is to give a Bayesian alternative to significance tests or, equivalently, to p-values. In fact, a set is defined in the parameter space and the posterior probability, its credibility, is evaluated. This set is the "Highest Posterior Density Region" that is "tangent" to the set that defines the null hypothesis. Our measure of evidence is the complement of the credibility of the "tangent" region.

/pdf/evidence-and-credibility-full-bayesian-significance-test-for-2nl7vwq797.pdf

Evidence and Credibility: Full Bayesian Significance Test for Precise Hypotheses

The Full Bayesian Signicance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

/pdf/can-a-significance-test-be-genuinely-bayesian-13oc0xgydt.pdf

Can a Significance Test Be Genuinely Bayesian

https://www.ime.usp.br/~cpereira/publications/jspi.pdf

Bayesian evidence test for precise hypotheses

In this paper, the relationship between the e-value of a complex hypothesis, H, and those of its constituent elementary hypotheses, H j , j = 1… k, is analyzed, in the independent setup. The e-value of a hypothesis H, ev(H), is a Bayesian epistemic, credibility or truth value defined under the Full Bayesian Significance Testing (FBST) mathematical apparatus. The questions addressed concern the important issue of how the truth value of H, and the truth function of the corresponding FBST structure M, relate to the truth values of its elementary constituents, H j , and to the truth functions of their corresponding FBST structures M j , respectively.

/pdf/the-rules-of-logic-composition-for-the-bayesian-epistemic-e-37w8t6ocnr.pdf

The Rules of Logic Composition for the Bayesian Epistemic e-Values

We show how the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) can be used as a model selection criterion. The FBST was presented in Pereira and Stern as a coherent Bayesian significance test. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Julio Michael Stern

Papers

Evidence and Credibility: Full Bayesian Significance Test for Precise Hypotheses

Can a Significance Test Be Genuinely Bayesian

Bayesian evidence test for precise hypotheses

The Rules of Logic Composition for the Bayesian Epistemic e-Values

Model selection : Full Bayesian approach