Stratospheric ozone levels are near their lowest point since measurements began, so current ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation levels are thought to be close to their maximum. Total stratospheric content of ozone-depleting substances is expected to reach a maximum before the year 2000. All other things being equal, the current ozone losses and related UV-B increases should be close to their maximum. Increases in surface erythemal (sunburning) UV radiation relative to the values in the 1970s are estimated to be: about 7% at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in winter/spring; about 4% at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in summer/fall; about 6% at Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes on a year-round basis; about 130% in the Antarctic in spring; and about 22% in the Arctic in spring. Reductions in atmospheric ozone are expected to result in higher amounts of UV-B radiation reaching the Earth's surface. The expected correlation between increases in surface UV-B radiation and decreases in overhead ozone has been further demonstrated and quantified by ground-based instruments under a wide range of conditions. Improved measurements of UV-B radiation are now providing better geographical and temporal coverage. Surface UV-B radiation levels are highly variable because of cloud cover, and also because of local effects including pollutants and surface reflections. These factors usually decrease atmospheric transmission and therefore the surface irradiances at UV-B as well as other wavelengths. Occasional cloud-induced increases have also been reported. With a few exceptions, the direct detection of UV-B trends at low- and mid-latitudes remains problematic due to this high natural variability, the relatively small ozone changes, and the practical difficulties of maintaining long-term stability in networks of UV-measuring instruments. Few reliable UV-B radiation measurements are available from pre-ozone-depletion days. Satellite-based observations of atmospheric ozone and clouds are being used, together with models of atmospheric transmission, to provide global coverage and long-term estimates of surface UV-B radiation. Estimates of long-term (1979-1992) trends in zonally averaged UV irradiances that include cloud effects are nearly identical to those for clear-sky estimates, providing evidence that clouds have not influenced the UV-B trends. However, the limitations of satellite-derived UV estimates should be recognized. To assess uncertainties inherent in this approach, additional validations involving comparisons with ground-based observations are required. Direct comparisons of ground-based UV-B radiation measurements between a few mid-latitude sites in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres have shown larger differences than those estimated using satellite data. Ground-based measurements show that summertime erythemal UV irradiances in the Southern Hemisphere exceed those at comparable latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere by up to 40%, whereas corresponding satellite-based estimates yield only 10-15% differences. Atmospheric pollution may be a factor in this discrepancy between ground-based measurements and satellite-derived estimates. UV-B measurements at more sites are required to determine whether the larger observed differences are globally representative. High levels of UV-B radiation continue to be observed in Antarctica during the recurrent spring-time ozone hole. For example, during ozone-hole episodes, measured biologically damaging radiation at Palmer Station, Antarctica (64 degrees S) has been found to approach and occasionally even exceed maximum summer values at San Diego, CA, USA (32 degrees N). Long-term predictions of future UV-B levels are difficult and uncertain. Nevertheless, current best estimates suggest that a slow recovery to pre-ozone depletion levels may be expected during the next half-century. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

Changes in biologically active ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface

The Montreal Protocol is working. Concentrations of major ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere are now decreasing, and the decline in total column amounts seen in the 1980s and 1990s at mid-latitudes has not continued. In polar regions, there is much greater natural variability. Each spring, large ozone holes continue to occur in Antarctica and less severe regions of depleted ozone continue to occur in the Arctic. There is evidence that some of these changes are driven by changes in atmospheric circulation rather than being solely attributable to reductions in ozone-depleting substances, which may indicate a linkage to climate change. Global ozone is still lower than in the 1970s and a return to that state is not expected for several decades. As changes in ozone impinge directly on UV radiation, elevated UV radiation due to reduced ozone is expected to continue over that period. Long-term changes in UV-B due to ozone depletion are difficult to verify through direct measurement, but there is strong evidence that UV-B irradiance increased over the period of ozone depletion. At unpolluted sites in the southern hemisphere, there is some evidence that UV-B irradiance has diminished since the late 1990s. The availability and temporal extent of UV data have improved, and we are now able to evaluate the changes in recent times compared with those estimated since the late 1920s, when ozone measurements first became available. The increases in UV-B irradiance over the latter part of the 20th century have been larger than the natural variability. There is increased evidence that aerosols have a larger effect on surface UV-B radiation than previously thought. At some sites in the Northern Hemisphere, UV-B irradiance may continue to increase because of continuing reductions in aerosol extinctions since the 1990s. Interactions between ozone depletion and climate change are complex and can be mediated through changes in chemistry, radiation, and atmospheric circulation patterns. The changes can be in both directions: ozone changes can affect climate, and climate change can affect ozone. The observational evidence suggests that stratospheric ozone (and therefore UV-B) has responded relatively quickly to changes in ozone-depleting substances, implying that climate interactions have not delayed this process. Model calculations predict that at mid-latitudes a return of ozone to pre-1980 levels is expected by the mid 21st century. However, it may take a decade or two longer in polar regions. Climate change can also affect UV radiation through changes in cloudiness and albedo, without involving ozone and since temperature changes over the 21st century are likely to be about 5 times greater than in the past century. This is likely to have significant effects on future cloud, aerosol and surface reflectivity. Consequently, unless strong mitigation measures are undertaken with respect to climate change, profound effects on the biosphere and on the solar UV radiation received at the Earth's surface can be anticipated. The future remains uncertain. Ozone is expected to increase slowly over the decades ahead, but it is not known whether ozone will return to higher levels, or lower levels, than those present prior to the onset of ozone depletion in the 1970s. There is even greater uncertainty about future UV radiation, since it will be additionally influenced by changes in aerosols and clouds.

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Changes in biologically-active ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface

Preface 1. Basic properties of radiation, atmospheres and oceans 2. Basic state variables 3. Interaction of radiation with matter 4. Formulation of radiative transfer problems 5. Approximate solutions of prototype problems 6. Accurate numerical solutions of prototype problems 7. Emission-dominated radiative processes 8. Radiative transfer in spectrally-complex media 9. Solar radiation driving photochemistry and photobiology 10. The role of radiation in climate Appendix 1. A primer on radiative transfer: absorption and scattering opacity Appendix 2. Stokes parameters, Poincare sphere, and the Mueller matrix Appendix 3. Nomenclature: glossary of symbols Appendix 4. Principle of reciprocity for the bidirectional reflectance Appendix 5. Isolation of the azimuth-dependence Appendix 6. The streaming term in spherical geometry Appendix 7. Reflectance and transmittance of the invariant intensity (I n2) Appendix 8. Scaling transformation for anisotropic scattering Appendix 9. Reciprocity, duality and effects of surface reflection Appendix 10. Removal of overflow problems in the intensity formulas.

Radiative Transfer in the Atmosphere and Ocean

https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1063/1.1333301

Seven models for computing underwater radiances and irradiances by numerical solution of the radiative transfer equation are compared. The models are applied to the solution of several problems drawn from optical oceanography. The problems include highly absorbing and highly scattering waters, scattering by molecules and by particulates, stratified water, atmospheric effects, surface-wave effects, bottom effects, and Raman scattering. The models provide consistent output, with errors (resulting from Monte Carlo statistical fluctuations) in computed irradiances that are seldom larger, and are usually smaller, than the experimental errors made in measuring irradiances when using current oceanographic instrumentation. Computed radiances display somewhat larger errors.

Comparison of numerical models for computing underwater light fields

A comprehensive radiative transfer model is used to calculate surface spectral ultraviolet irradiance under cloud-free conditions. The results are compared with measurements made at Lauder, New Zealand (45 deg S, 170 deg E) before and after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo and including a snow-covered surface. There is reasonable agreement between measured and calculated diffuse, direct, and global irradiances over the range 300 to 450 nm. Discrepancies may be due to calibration errors in the UV measurements, or in the extra terrestrial irradiances input to the model. Ratios of diffuse/direct irradiances are independent of such calibration uncertainties and therefore provide a sensitive test of the model. If appropriate ozonesonde data, surface albedo, and aerosol optical properties are used, the model ratios are in satisfactory agreement with measurements over a wide range of observing conditions. For cases in which the atmospheric optical properties are best known the agreement is better than 8% in the UV-B range, and for wavelengths 320 to 450 nm the deviation is smaller. The comparison suggests that the ultraviolet radiation exposure can be computed with confidence for clear sky conditions if the appropriate atmospheric molecular density profiles, ozonesonde data, surface albedo, and aerosol optical properties are available.more » The UV radiation model is used to investigate the impact of changes in solar zenith angle, ozone abundance, surface albedo, and aerosol loading on UV radiation reaching the surface of the Earth. The ratios of diffuse to direct irradiance depend critically on solar zenith angle, surface albedo, and aerosol extinction. Ozone changes have pronounced effects on the global UVB irradiance but have only a minor effect on these ratios.« less

Measured UV spectra compared with discrete ordinate method simulations

The effect of ozone depletion on penetration of UVB radiation through the atmosphere and into an aquatic system is investigated with the use of a newly developed radiation model pertinent for the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. The atmosphere and underlying water are each divided into a sufficient number of horizontal layers to resolve the changes in model accounts for all orders of multiple scattering and the change in index of refraction across the air- water interface. The penetration of UVB radiation into the aquatic system is examined by assuming `normal' ozone abundance, taken to be 350 DU, and about 30% reduction from normal (250 DU), at 70 degree(s) N. The effect of ozone depletion on the UVB penetration into the water is more pronounced in early spring than in summer. The UVB enhancements are up to 36% at the earth surface and 33% 10 meters below the sea surface on April 1 at 70 degree(s) N as a consequence of ozone depletion from normal level to 250 DU.© (1993) COPYRIGHT SPIE--The International Society for Optical Engineering. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

Jun Zeng

Papers

Measured UV spectra compared with discrete ordinate method simulations

Impact of stratospheric ozone depletion on UV penetration into the ocean at high latitudes