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Modern Applied Statistics With S

A review of drought concepts

Climate change 2014 - Synthesis Report

Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) quantifies the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. Previous studies have shown that climate constraints were relaxing with increasing temperature and solar radiation, allowing an upward trend in NPP from 1982 through 1999. The past decade (2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued increases in NPP; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production.

Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009

Object-based cloud and cloud shadow detection in Landsat imagery

In the context of climate change characterized by rising temperature and more extreme precipitation regimes, drought is one of the most relevant natural disasters. This paper presents maps of global drought frequency, duration, and severity for the periods 1951-1970, 1971-1990, and 1991-2010, to give an overview of the respective drought hot spots. Drought frequency is defined as the number of drought events occurred, drought duration as the number of months in drought conditions, and drought severity as the sum of the integral area below zero of each event. Because drought is mainly driven by rainfall deficits, we chose the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as the base indicator to derive drought-related quantities. SPI-12 has been calculated on a monthly basis using a Gamma distribution fitted to a 60-year baseline period (1951-2010). Global grids (0.5 ◦ × 0.5 ◦ ) of the Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0 dataset provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) have been used as precipitation data input. The regions most exposed to prolonged and severe droughts during 1951-1970 were the Central United States, the Argentinian Pampas, Russia, and Central Australia; during 1971-1990 they were Southern Chile, the Sahel, and Siberia; during 1991-2010 they were the Amazon Forest, the Congo River Basin, Mongolia, North Eastern China, and Borneo. A linear trend analysis between 1951 and 2010 shows a small global increase in each drought component, but drought frequency decreased in the Northern Hemisphere. The increase in drought frequency, duration, and severity is found to be significant in Africa, Eastern Asia, Mediterranean region, and Southern Australia, while the Americas and Russia show a decrease in each drought component.

World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010

As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized precipitation index (SPI, which accounts for anomalous low rainfall), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI, which accounts for high temperatures and scarce precipitations), and the reconnaissance drought indicator (RDI, similar to SPEI but more affected by extreme events), has been computed at 3- and 12-month accumulation scales to characterize trends in seasonal and annual events from 1981 to 2100. Climate data from 11 bias-adjusted high-resolution (0.11°) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX (coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment) have been used in the analyses. For each simulation, the frequency and severity of drought and extreme drought events for 1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 have been analysed. Under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5), droughts are projected to become increasingly more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean area, western Europe, and Northern Scandinavia, whereas the whole European continent, with the exception of Iceland, will be affected by more frequent and severe extreme droughts under the most severe emission scenario (RCP8.5), especially after 2070. Seasonally, drought frequency is projected to increase everywhere in Europe for both scenarios in spring and summer, especially over southern Europe, and less intensely in autumn; on the contrary, winter shows a decrease in drought frequency over northern Europe.

Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe

An extreme heat wave occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010. It had serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, it was the strongest recorded globally in recent decades and exceeded in amplitude and spatial extent the previous hottest European summer in 2003. Earlier studies have not succeeded in comparing the magnitude of heat waves across continents and in time. This study introduces a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index that can be compared over space and time. The index is based on the analysis of daily maximum temperature in order to classify the strongest heat waves that occurred worldwide during the three study periods 1980–1990, 1991–2001, and 2002–2012. In addition, multimodel ensemble outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are used to project future occurrence and severity of heat waves, under different Representative Concentration Pathways, adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Results show that the percentage of global area affected by heat waves has increased in recent decades. Moreover, model predictions reveal an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme and very extreme heat waves in the coming years, in particular, by the end of this century, under the most severe IPCC AR5 scenario, events of the same severity as that in Russia in the summer of 2010 will become the norm and are projected to occur as often as every 2 years for regions such as southern Europe, North America, South America, Africa, and Indonesia.

/pdf/magnitude-of-extreme-heat-waves-in-present-climate-and-their-3jx8p3isrv.pdf

Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming. Plain Language Summary This research investigates the climatology of global drought conditions under different global warming levels. We consider warming levels of 1.5 and 2°C set out as mitigation targets in the Paris Agreement, as well as 3°C that is closer to what is expected by the end of the 21st century if current emission trends are retained. We found that the magnitude of droughts is likely to double in 30% of the global landmass under stringent mitigation policies. If global warming continues at the present rate, water supply-demand deficits would increase fivefold while current 1-in-100-year droughts would occur every two to five years for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. Approximately two thirds of the global population will experience a progressive increase in drought hazard with warming. In drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise rapidly with warming. The main impacts of long-lasting droughts are linked to the lowering of the groundwater and of the water levels in reservoirs. This will impede replenishment of water supplies andmay result in a difficult recovery and prolonged socio-economic impacts after severe droughts.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017GL076521

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Preface. Part 1: Introduction. Introduction J.V. Vogt, F. Somma. Drought Events in Europe R.B. Bradford. Part 2: Drought Definition. Drought Definition: A Hydrological Perspective E.L. Tate, A. Gustard. Definition, Effects and Assessment of Groundwater Droughts H.A.J. van Lanen, E. Peters. Agricultural Drought - A Practical Approach to Definition, Assessment and Mitigation Strategies G. Maracchi. Part 3: Drought Risk. Drought Risk in a Changing Environment T.E. Downing, K. Bakker. Synoptic Situations Causing Drought in the Mediterranean Basin P. Maheras. Streamflow Drought Frequency Analysis L.M. Tallaksen. Drought Preparedness in the United States Recent Progress D.A. Wilhite. The Estimation of Drought Risk in Europe from Soil and Climatic Data R.J.A. Jones, et al. Part 4: Drought Monitoring. Drought Monitoring and Assessment: Status and Trends in the United States D.A. Wilhite, et al. Comparison of Two Drought Indices for Drought Monitoring in Hungary - A Case Study S. Szalai, C. Szinell. Drought Monitoring from Space J.V. Vogt, et al. Scale Issues in Drought Monitoring A.A. Viau, J.V. Vogt. Part 5: Drought Impact. Socio-Economic Aspects of Droughts A. Garrido, A. Gomez-Ramos. Assessment of the Vulnerability of a River System to Drought S. Demuth, et al. Key Elements of Remote Sensing Based Systems for Assessing Drought Impact on EU Agriculture W. Kuhbauch, I. Rademacher. Part 6: Drought Mitigation Strategies. Drought Mitigation Measures: a Comprehensive Framework G. Rossi. Drought Mitigation Strategies - A Dynamic Approach J. Lomas. Some Lessons Learnt During the Drought of1991-1995 in Spain M.R. Llamas. Global Systems Ameliorate Local Droughts: Water, Food and Trade J.A. Allan. Decision Processes with Regard to Drought Monitoring and Mitigation B. Cornelis, A.A. Viau. Part 7: Conclusions and Recommendations. List of Contributors. Subject Index.

http://agrienv.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pdfs/Drought-Book.pdf

Jürgen Vogt

Papers

World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010

Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe

Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Drought and drought mitigation in Europe