K
Kajal Lahiri
Researcher at University at Albany, SUNY
Publications - 212
Citations - 4848
Kajal Lahiri is an academic researcher from University at Albany, SUNY. The author has contributed to research in topics: Survey of Professional Forecasters & Inflation. The author has an hindex of 37, co-authored 203 publications receiving 4570 citations. Previous affiliations of Kajal Lahiri include State University of New York System & College of Business Administration.
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Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link
Kajal Lahiri,Xuguang Simon Sheng +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a standard decomposition of forecasts errors into common and idiosyncratic shocks is used to estimate the ex ante variability of aggregate shocks as a component of aggregate uncertainty, and the reliability of disagreement as a proxy for uncertainty will be determined by the stability of the forecasting environment and the length of the forecast horizon.
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Leading economic indicators : new approaches and forecasting records
Kajal Lahiri,Geoffrey H. Moore +1 more
TL;DR: A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators is proposed in this article, which is based on Neftci's probability approach for signalling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators.
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Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link
Kajal Lahiri,Xuguang Simon Sheng +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use a standard decomposition of forecast errors into common and idiosyncratic shocks, and show that aggregate forecast uncertainty can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the perceived variability of future aggregate shocks.
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A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data☆
Antony Davies,Kajal Lahiri +1 more
TL;DR: A framework for analyzing forecast errors in a panel data setting to test for forecast rationality when forecast errors are simultaneously correlated across individuals, across target years, and across forecast horizons using Generalized Method of Moments estimation is developed.
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Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model
Kajal Lahiri,Xuguang Simon Sheng +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining expert forecast disagreement and its evolution over horizons, and find significant heterogeneity in the nature of inefficiency across horizons and countries.