The potential for sea ice-albedo feedback to give rise to nonlinear climate change in the Arctic Ocean – defined as a nonlinear relationship between polar and global temperature change or, equivalently, a time-varying polar amplification – is explored in IPCC AR4 climate models. Five models supplying SRES A1B ensembles for the 21 st century are examined and very linear relationships are found between polar and global temperatures (indicating linear Arctic Ocean climate change), and between polar temperature and albedo (the potential source of nonlinearity). Two of the climate models have Arctic Ocean simulations that become annually sea ice-free under the stronger CO 2 increase to quadrupling forcing. Both of these runs show increases in polar amplification at polar temperatures above-5 o C and one exhibits heat budget changes that are consistent with the small ice cap instability of simple energy balance models. Both models show linear warming up to a polar temperature of-5 o C, well above the disappearance of their September ice covers at about-9 o C. Below-5 o C, surface albedo decreases smoothly as reductions move, progressively, to earlier parts of the sunlit period. Atmospheric heat transport exerts a strong cooling effect during the transition to annually ice-free conditions. Specialized experiments with atmosphere and coupled models show that the main damping mechanism for sea ice region surface temperature is reduced upward heat flux through the adjacent ice-free oceans resulting in reduced atmospheric heat transport into the region.

Geophysical fluid dynamics.

[1] Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

Recent Large Increases in Freshwater Fluxes from Greenland Into the North Atlantic

SUMMARY A new algorithm is developed to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the material point method for problems involving extremely large tensile deformations and rotations. In the proposed procedure, particle domains are convected with the material motion more accurately than in the generalized interpolation material point method. This feature is crucial to eliminate instability in extension, which is a common shortcoming of most particle methods. Also, a novel alternative set of grid basis functions is proposed for efficiently calculating nodal force and consistent mass integrals on the grid. Specifically, by taking advantage of initially parallelogram-shaped particle domains, and treating the deformation gradient as constant over the particle domain, the convected particle domain is a reshaped parallelogram in the deformed configuration. Accordingly, an alternative grid basis function over the particle domain is constructed by a standard 4-node finite element interpolation on the parallelogram. Effectiveness of the proposed modifications is demonstrated using several large deformation solid mechanics problems. Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A convected particle domain interpolation technique to extend applicability of the material point method for problems involving massive deformations

Coupling of soil deformation and pore fluid flow using material point method

[1] The material-point method (MPM) is a numerical method for continuum mechanics that combines the best aspects of Lagrangian and Eulerian discretizations. The material points provide a Lagrangian description of the ice that models convection naturally. Thus properties such as ice thickness and compactness are computed in a Lagrangian frame and do not suffer from errors associated with Eulerian advection schemes, such as artificial diffusion, dispersion, or oscillations near discontinuities. This desirable property is illustrated by solving transport of ice in uniform, rotational and convergent velocity fields. Moreover, the ice geometry is represented by unconnected material points rather than a grid. This representation facilitates modeling the large deformations observed in the Arctic, as well as localized deformation along leads, and admits a sharp representation of the ice edge. MPM also easily allows the use of any ice constitutive model. The versatility of MPM is demonstrated by using two constitutive models for simulations of wind-driven ice. The first model is a standard viscous-plastic model with two thickness categories. The MPM solution to the viscous-plastic model agrees with previously published results using finite elements. The second model is a new elastic-decohesive model that explicitly represents leads. The model includes a mechanism to initiate leads, and to predict their orientation and width. The elastic-decohesion model can provide similar overall deformation as the viscous-plastic model; however, explicit regions of opening and shear are predicted. Furthermore, the efficiency of MPM with the elastic-decohesive model is competitive with the current best methods for sea ice dynamics.

/pdf/using-the-material-point-method-to-model-sea-ice-dynamics-4p7wf0m744.pdf

Using the material-point method to model sea ice dynamics

Toward a new elastic-decohesive model of Arctic sea ice

A new Control Volume Finite Element Method for the stable and accurate solution of the drift–diffusion equations on general unstructured grids

https://cfwebprod.sandia.gov/cfdocs/CompResearch/docs/opt.pdf

Optimization-based mesh correction with volume and convexity constraints

Intrepid is a Trilinos package for advanced discretizations of Partial Differential Equations PDEs. The package provides a comprehensive set of tools for local, cell-based construction of a wide range of numerical methods for PDEs. This paper describes the mathematical ideas and software design principles incorporated in the package. We also provide representative examples showcasing the use of Intrepid both in the context of numerical PDEs and the more general context of data analysis.

/pdf/solving-pdes-with-intrepid-1rvotuu2lj.pdf

Kara J. Peterson

Papers

Using the material-point method to model sea ice dynamics

Toward a new elastic-decohesive model of Arctic sea ice

A new Control Volume Finite Element Method for the stable and accurate solution of the drift–diffusion equations on general unstructured grids

Optimization-based mesh correction with volume and convexity constraints

Solving PDEs with Intrepid