I would like to acknowledge three research grants/contracts that are supporting my current research on this theme: Grant F/07 040/AP from the Leverhulme Trust; Grant NE/F014597/1 from the Natural Environment Research Council, UK, and the REFORM collaborative project funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement 282656.

/pdf/plants-as-river-system-engineers-exbera945e.pdf

Plants as river system engineers

Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming over the past century, with temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly over land as over the oceans. Here, we review the likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate, including analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate model ensemble. Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st-century global warming that is comparable in magnitude to that of the largest global changes in the past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid. The rate of warming implies a velocity of climate change and required range shifts of up to several kilometers per year, raising the prospect of daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially in the context of extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events, and interactions with other stresses.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/341/6145/486.full.pdf

Changes in Ecologically Critical Terrestrial Climate Conditions

Thermal regimes in rivers and streams are fundamentally important to aquatic ecosystems and are expected to change in response to climate forcing as the Earth’s temperature warms. Description and attribution of stream temperature changes are key to understanding how these ecosystems may be affected by climate change, but difficult given the rarity of long-term monitoring data. We assembled 18 temperature time-series from sites on regulated and unregulated streams in the northwest U.S. to describe historical trends from 1980–2009 and assess thermal consistency between these stream categories. Statistically significant temperature trends were detected across seven sites on unregulated streams during all seasons of the year, with a cooling trend apparent during the spring and warming trends during the summer, fall, and winter. The amount of warming more than compensated for spring cooling to cause a net temperature increase, and rates of warming were highest during the summer (raw trend = 0.17°C/decade; reconstructed trend = 0.22°C/decade). Air temperature was the dominant factor explaining long-term stream temperature trends (82–94% of trends) and inter-annual variability (48–86% of variability), except during the summer when discharge accounted for approximately half (52%) of the inter-annual variation in stream temperatures. Seasonal temperature trends at eleven sites on regulated streams were qualitatively similar to those at unregulated sites if two sites managed to reduce summer and fall temperatures were excluded from the analysis. However, these trends were never statistically significant due to greater variation among sites that resulted from local water management policies and effects of upstream reservoirs. Despite serious deficiencies in the stream temperature monitoring record, our results suggest many streams in the northwest U.S. are exhibiting a regionally coherent response to climate forcing. More extensive monitoring efforts are needed as are techniques for short-term sensitivity analysis and reconstructing historical temperature trends so that spatial and temporal patterns of warming can be better understood. Continuation of warming trends this century will increasingly stress important regional salmon and trout resources and hamper efforts to recover these species, so comprehensive vulnerability assessments are needed to provide strategic frameworks for prioritizing conservation efforts.

/pdf/climate-change-effects-on-stream-and-river-temperatures-e29v1w5vzs.pdf

Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes

Changing river channels: the roles of hydrological processes, plants and pioneer fluvial landforms in humid temperate, mixed load, gravel bed rivers.

SUMMARY 1. Riparian vegetation composition, structure and abundance are governed to a large degree by river flow regime and flow-mediated fluvial processes. Streamflow regime exerts selective pressures on riparian vegetation, resulting in adaptations (trait syndromes) to specific flow attributes. Widespread modification of flow regimes by humans has resulted in extensive alteration of riparian vegetation communities. Some of the negative effects of altered flow regimes on vegetation may be reversed by restoring components of the natural flow regime. 2. Models have been developed that quantitatively relate components of the flow regime to attributes of riparian vegetation at the individual, population and community levels. Predictive models range from simple statistical relationships, to more complex stochastic matrix population models and dynamic simulation models. Of the dozens of predictive models reviewed here, most treat one or a few species, have many simplifying assumptions such as stable channel form, and do not specify the time-scale of response. In many cases, these models are very effective in developing alternative streamflow management plans for specific river reaches or segments but are not directly transferable to other rivers or other regions. 3. A primary goal in riparian ecology is to develop general frameworks for prediction of vegetation response to changing environmental conditions. The development of riparian vegetation-flow response guilds offers a framework for transferring information from rivers where flow standards have been developed to maintain desirable vegetation attributes, to rivers with little or no existing information. 4. We propose to organise riparian plants into non-phylogenetic groupings of species with shared traits that are related to components of hydrologic regime: life history, reproductive strategy, morphology, adaptations to fluvial disturbance and adaptations to water availability. Plants from any river or region may be grouped into these guilds and related to hydrologic attributes of a specific class of river using probabilistic response curves. 5. Probabilistic models based on riparian response guilds enable prediction of the likelihood of change in each of the response guilds given projected changes in flow, and

Theory, methods and tools for determining environmental flows for riparian vegetation: riparian vegetation‐flow response guilds

Declining summer flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: Changing seasonal hydrology and probable impacts on floodplain forests

Under pre-settlement conditions the Yakima River in Washington state, USA was characterized by multiple channels, complex aquifers and extensive riparian cottonwood forests. Subsequent implementation of headwater dams to supply irrigation water has altered river and floodplain processes critical to the cottonwoods and associated riparian vegetation. In this study, we analysed hydrology and floodplain forests and especially the dominant black cottonwoods (Populus trichocarpa) along sequential reaches of the Yakima River. Elevations were surveyed and vegetation inventoried along cross-sectional belt transects, and cottonwood tree ring interpretations investigated historic associations between river hydrology and cottonwood establishment and growth. We analysed hydrographs relative to the apparent episodes of cottonwood recruitment and applied a quantitative model for seedling colonization that required: (1) floods, disturbance flows to produce barren nursery sites, and subsequent flows for seedling (2) establishment and (3) survival. In contrast to earlier conditions, flow patterns after the 1960s have generally been unfavourable for cottonwood recruitment although some cottonwood colonization has occurred in association with physical disturbance from gravel mining. With recent flow regimes, regulated flows along upper reaches maintain the river near bank-full throughout the growing season, thus inundating suitable seedling recruitment sites. Downstream, irrigation withdrawals reduce the river stage, resulting in seedling establishment at low elevations that are lethally scoured by subsequent high flows. These regulated flow regimes have not hindered growth of established trees, but have reduced the recruitment of cottonwoods, and particularly disfavoured females, thus altering sex ratios and producing skewed cottonwood population age and gender structures. The cottonwood decline has also been associated with other changes in riparian plant community composition, including the encroachment of invasive weeds. Based on this ecohydrologic analysis we discuss flow adjustments that could rejuvenate cottonwood forests along the Yakima River. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Instream flows and the decline of riparian cottonwoods along the Yakima River, Washington, USA

The narrowleaf cottonwood, Populus angustifolia, occurs in occasionally flooded, low elevation zones along river valleys near the North American Rocky Mountains This small poplar has narrow leaves and fine branching and thus resembles willows, which are commonly flood-tolerant We investigated the flood response of narrowleaf cottonwoods and a related native hybrid, jackii cottonwood (P × jackii = P balsamifera × P deltoides), by studying saplings of 24 clones in a greenhouse, with some pots being inundated to provide the flood treatment Flooding slightly reduced leaf numbers (−10%), and leaf sizes were reduced by about 21% in female P angustifolia versus a 50% reduction in the female hybrids Flooding-reduced stomatal conductance and net photosynthetic rate, and reduced transpiration particularly in P × jackii The effects on foliar gas exchange declined over a 5-week interval, suggesting compensation The moderate impact of flooding supports the hypothesis that narrowleaf cottonwoods are flood-tolerant, and we anticipate that these trees could provide traits to increase the flood tolerance of fast-growing hybrid poplars The results further indicate that female cottonwoods may be more flood-tolerant than males, and females could be more successful in lower, flood-prone sites

Effects of flooding on leaf development, transpiration, and photosynthesis in narrowleaf cottonwood, a willow-like poplar.

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non-parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1-A, HadCM3, NCAR-CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R2 about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R2 = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (−3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (−9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about − 15%) and annual flows (about − 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: Converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down-scaled global circulation modelling

To investigate climatic influence on floodplain trees, we analysed interannual correspondences between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), river and groundwater hydrology, and growth and wood (13)C discrimination (Δ(13)C) of narrowleaf cottonwoods (Populus angustifolia) in a semi-arid prairie region. From the Rocky Mountain headwaters, river discharge (Q) was coordinated with the PDO (1910-2008: r(2) = 0.46); this pattern extended to the prairie and was amplified by water withdrawal for irrigation. Floodplain groundwater depth was correlated with river stage (r(2) = 0.96), and the cottonwood trunk basal area growth was coordinated with current- and prior-year Q (1992-2008: r(2) = 0.51), increasing in the mid-1990s, and decreasing in 2000 and 2001. Annual Δ(13)C decreased during low-flow years, especially in trees that were higher or further from the river, suggesting drought stress and stomatal closure, and male trees were more responsive than females (-0.86 versus -0.43‰). With subsequently increased flows, Δ(13)C increased and growth recovered. This demonstrated the linkages between hydroclimatic variation and cottonwood ecophysiology, and we conclude that cottonwoods will be vulnerable to drought from declining river flows due to water withdrawal and climate change. Trees further from the river could be especially affected, leading to narrowing of floodplain forests along some rivers.

https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/pce.12031

Karen M. Gill

Papers

Declining summer flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: Changing seasonal hydrology and probable impacts on floodplain forests

Instream flows and the decline of riparian cottonwoods along the Yakima River, Washington, USA

Effects of flooding on leaf development, transpiration, and photosynthesis in narrowleaf cottonwood, a willow-like poplar.

Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: Converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down-scaled global circulation modelling

Hydrologic linkages between a climate oscillation, river flows, growth, and wood Δ13C of male and female cottonwood trees