While the concept of the Anthropocene reflects the past and present nature, scale and magnitude of human impacts on the Earth System, its true significance lies in how it can be used to guide attitudes, choices, policies and actions that influence the future. Yet, to date much of the research on the Anthropocene has focused on interpreting past and present changes, while saying little about the future. Likewise, many futures studies have been insufficiently rooted in an understanding of past changes, in particular the long-term co-evolution of bio-physical and human systems. The Anthropocene perspective is one that encapsulates a world of intertwined drivers, complex dynamic structures, emergent phenomena and unintended consequences, manifest across different scales and within interlinked biophysical constraints and social conditions. In this paper we discuss the changing role of science and the theoretical, methodological and analytical challenges in considering futures of the Anthropocene. We present three broad groups of research questions on: (1) societal goals for the future; (2) major trends and dynamics that might favor or hinder them; (3) and factors that might propel or impede transformations towards desirable futures. Tackling these questions requires the development of novel approaches integrating natural and social sciences as well as the humanities beyond what is current today. We present three examples, one from each group of questions, illustrating how science might contribute to the identification of desirable and plausible futures and pave the way for transformations towards them. We argue that it is time for debates on the sustainability of the Anthropocene to focus on opportunities for realizing desirable and plausible futures.

Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda

Rapidly thawing permafrost harbors ∼30 to 50% of global soil carbon, and the fate of this carbon remains unknown. Microorganisms will play a central role in its fate, and their viruses could modulate that impact via induced mortality and metabolic controls. Because of the challenges of recovering viruses from soils, little is known about soil viruses or their role(s) in microbial biogeochemical cycling. Here, we describe 53 viral populations (viral operational taxonomic units [vOTUs]) recovered from seven quantitatively derived (i.e., not multiple-displacement-amplified) viral-particle metagenomes (viromes) along a permafrost thaw gradient at the Stordalen Mire field site in northern Sweden. Only 15% of these vOTUs had genetic similarity to publicly available viruses in the RefSeq database, and ∼30% of the genes could be annotated, supporting the concept of soils as reservoirs of substantial undescribed viral genetic diversity. The vOTUs exhibited distinct ecology, with different distributions along the thaw gradient habitats, and a shift from soil-virus-like assemblages in the dry palsas to aquatic-virus-like assemblages in the inundated fen. Seventeen vOTUs were linked to microbial hosts (in silico), implicating viruses in infecting abundant microbial lineages from Acidobacteria, Verrucomicrobia, and Deltaproteobacteria, including those encoding key biogeochemical functions such as organic matter degradation. Thirty auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) were identified and suggested virus-mediated modulation of central carbon metabolism, soil organic matter degradation, polysaccharide binding, and regulation of sporulation. Together, these findings suggest that these soil viruses have distinct ecology, impact host-mediated biogeochemistry, and likely impact ecosystem function in the rapidly changing Arctic. IMPORTANCE This work is part of a 10-year project to examine thawing permafrost peatlands and is the first virome-particle-based approach to characterize viruses in these systems. This method yielded >2-fold-more viral populations (vOTUs) per gigabase of metagenome than vOTUs derived from bulk-soil metagenomes from the same site (J. B. Emerson, S. Roux, J. R. Brum, B. Bolduc, et al., Nat Microbiol 3:870-880, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-018-0190-y). We compared the ecology of the recovered vOTUs along a permafrost thaw gradient and found (i) habitat specificity, (ii) a shift in viral community identity from soil-like to aquatic-like viruses, (iii) infection of dominant microbial hosts, and (iv) carriage of host metabolic genes. These vOTUs can impact ecosystem carbon processing via top-down (inferred from lysing dominant microbial hosts) and bottom-up (inferred from carriage of auxiliary metabolic genes) controls. This work serves as a foundation which future studies can build upon to increase our understanding of the soil virosphere and how viruses affect soil ecosystem services.

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Soil Viruses Are Underexplored Players in Ecosystem Carbon Processing.

Diverse impact of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) over the landscape of environment is generally believed in literature. As CO2 emission acutely leads to GHGs is a major contributor for global warming, it creates a serious pressure on natural resources and ecological settings. Similarly, low-carbon (CO2) economy, plenty of energy resources, and sustainable growth are a big ask for worldwide economies in this era of mechanization. This paper analyzes the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies, to contend the role of mega projects in BRI as an attribute for ecological detriments. The on-hand study engages fresh data information ranging from 1981 to 2016 holding with heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence as a special deliberation. The calculated outcomes expose that, mean group estimator provides strong evidence and favor the existence of EKC approximately in every region. The long-run influence is measured by pooled mean group estimators, which shows significant outcomes in every region; additionally, the EKC hypothesis affirmed in the long run especially for developed economies. Mega projects, i.e., BRI requisite immense energy sources to accomplishing the enclosed projects efficiently and effectively. The positive association between carbon emission and energy consumption troubled the governments to make policies for restraining the magnitude of carbon emission and controls energy usage for enduring environment to its original position. Next, the valuations depicted the dense recommendations for state administrations in capacity of rigorous level supremacy, trash managing campaigns, renewable energy reliance, and advance for desirable judgments to sterilize the atmosphere.

Testing EKC hypothesis with energy and sustainable development challenges: a fresh evidence from belt and road initiative economies.

https://escholarship.org/content/qt00q652xt/qt00q652xt.pdf?t=qb1ddi

Karen O 'Brien

Papers

IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report-Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report