Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

https://bio.uib.no/te/papers/Grimm_2010_The_ODD_protocol_.pdf

The ODD protocol: A review and first update

Knowledge of the ecological and evolutionary causes of dispersal can be crucial in understanding the behaviour of spatially structured populations, and predicting how species respond to environmental change. Despite the focus of much theoretical research, simplistic assumptions regarding the dispersal process are still made. Dispersal is usually regarded as an unconditional process although in many cases fitness gains of dispersal are dependent on environmental factors and individual state. Condition-dependent dispersal strategies will often be superior to unconditional, fixed strategies. In addition, dispersal is often collapsed into a single parameter, despite it being a process composed of three interdependent stages: emigration, inter-patch movement and immigration, each of which may display different condition dependencies. Empirical studies have investigated correlates of these stages, emigration in particular, providing evidence for the prevalence of conditional dispersal strategies. Ill-defined use of the term ‘dispersal’, for movement across many different spatial scales, further hinders making general conclusions and relating movement correlates to consequences at the population level. Logistical difficulties preclude a detailed study of dispersal for many species, however incorporating unrealistic dispersal assumptions in spatial population models may yield inaccurate and costly predictions. Further studies are necessary to explore the importance of incorporating specific condition-dependent dispersal strategies for evolutionary and population dynamic predictions.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1017/S1464793104006645

Causes and consequences of animal dispersal strategies: relating individual behaviour to spatial dynamics.

Individual-based modeling is a new, exciting discipline that allows ecologists to explore, using computer simulations, how properties of populations and ecosystems might evolve from the characteristics and behaviors of individual organisms. Individual-based Modeling and Ecology, written by Volker Grimm and Steven F. Railsback, gives an excellent introduction and overview of this field. It should be read by everyone interested in individual-based modeling, and especially by anyone contemplating developing, or being involved with a group developing, an individualbased model.

http://www.gbv.de/dms/weimar/toc/396272002_toc.pdf

Individual-based modeling and ecology

Though many processes are involved in determining which species coexist and assemble into communities, competition is among the best studied. One hypothesis about competition's contribution to community assembly is that more closely related species are less likely to coexist. Though empirical evidence for this hypothesis is mixed, it remains a common assumption in certain phylogenetic approaches for inferring the effects of environmental filtering and competitive exclusion. Here, we relate modern coexistence theory to phylogenetic community assembly approaches to refine expectations for how species relatedness influences the outcome of competition. We argue that two types of species differences determine competitive exclusion with opposing effects on relatedness patterns. Importantly, this means that competition can sometimes eliminate more different and less related taxa, even when the traits underlying the relevant species differences are phylogenetically conserved. Our argument leads to a reinterpretation of the assembly processes inferred from community phylogenetic structure.

Opposing effects of competitive exclusion on the phylogenetic structure of communities

Constructing a hybrid species distribution model from standard large-scale distribution data

Interacting effects of habitat destruction and changing disturbance rates on biodiversity: Who is going to survive?

Using an individual-based simulation model we study how different mechanisms of food division among multiple offspring influence nestling number and quality, as well as parental effort. We consider the combination of different scenarios of food availability (feeding conditions), hatching asynchrony and food division. If parents have full control on how to divide food among offspring, asynchronous broods have higher breeding performance than synchronous ones in a wide range of feeding conditions, giving theoretical support to empirically proved benefits of hatching asynchrony. If parents accept the outcome of sibling competition there is a threshold in feeding conditions below which asynchronous broods produced more fledglings and the reverse was true above the threshold. Interestingly, parents relying on the outcome of nestling competition do not necessarily differ in breeding performance from those which have full control over food allocation. Our study combines hatching asynchrony, provisioning behaviour of parents, jostling behaviour of nestlings and feeding conditions as a network of interacting processes of enormous interest to fully understand the parent-offspring conflict.

Parental versus offspring control on food division within the brood: the role of hatching asynchrony

Many theoretical studies support the notion that strong dispersal fosters spatial synchrony. Nonetheless, the effect of conditional vs. unconditional dispersal has remained a matter of controversy. We scrutinize recent findings on a desynchronizing effect of negative density-dependent dispersal based on spatially explicit simulation models. Keeping net emigration rates equivalent, we compared density-independent and density-dependent dispersal for different types of intraspecific density regulation, ranging from under-compensation to over-compensation. In general, density-independent dispersal possessed a slightly higher synchronizing potential but this effect was very small and sensitive compared to the influence of the type of local density regulation. Notably, consistent outcomes for the comparison of conditional dispersal strategies strongly relied on the control of equivalent emigration rates. We conclude that the strength of dispersal is more important for spatial synchrony than its density dependen...

Spatial synchrony through density-independent versus density-dependent dispersal.

If two species exhibit different nonlinear responses to a single shared resource, and if each species modifies the resource dynamics such that this favors its competitor, they may stably coexist. This coexistence mechanism, known as relative nonlinearity of competition, is well understood theoretically, but less is known about its evolutionary properties and its prevalence in real communities. We address this challenge by using adaptive dynamics theory and individual-based simulations to compare community stabilization and evolutionary stability of species that coexist by relative nonlinearity. In our analysis, evolution operates on the species' density-compensation strategies, and we consider a trade-off between population growth rates at high and low resource availability. We confirm previous findings that, irrespective of the particular model of density dependence, there are many combinations of overcompensating and undercompensating density-compensation strategies that allow stable coexistence by relative nonlinearity. However, our analysis also shows that most of these strategy combinations are not evolutionarily stable and will be outcompeted by an intermediate density-compensation strategy. Only very specific trade-offs lead to evolutionarily stable coexistence by relative nonlinearity. As we find no reason why these particular trade-offs should be common in nature, we conclude that the sympatric evolution and evolutionary stability of relative nonlinearity, while possible in principle, seems rather unlikely. We speculate that this may, at least in part, explain why empirical demonstrations of this coexistence mechanism are rare, noting, however, that the difficulty to detect relative nonlinearity in the field is an equally likely explanation for the current lack of empirical observations, and that our results are limited to communities with non-overlapping generations and constant resource supply. Our study highlights the need for combining ecological and evolutionary perspectives for gaining a better understanding of community assembly and biogeographic patterns.

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Karin Johst

Papers

Constructing a hybrid species distribution model from standard large-scale distribution data

Interacting effects of habitat destruction and changing disturbance rates on biodiversity: Who is going to survive?

Parental versus offspring control on food division within the brood: the role of hatching asynchrony

Spatial synchrony through density-independent versus density-dependent dispersal.

On the sympatric evolution and evolutionary stability of coexistence by relative nonlinearity of competition.