Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

https://bio.uib.no/te/papers/Grimm_2010_The_ODD_protocol_.pdf

The ODD protocol: A review and first update

Knowledge of the ecological and evolutionary causes of dispersal can be crucial in understanding the behaviour of spatially structured populations, and predicting how species respond to environmental change. Despite the focus of much theoretical research, simplistic assumptions regarding the dispersal process are still made. Dispersal is usually regarded as an unconditional process although in many cases fitness gains of dispersal are dependent on environmental factors and individual state. Condition-dependent dispersal strategies will often be superior to unconditional, fixed strategies. In addition, dispersal is often collapsed into a single parameter, despite it being a process composed of three interdependent stages: emigration, inter-patch movement and immigration, each of which may display different condition dependencies. Empirical studies have investigated correlates of these stages, emigration in particular, providing evidence for the prevalence of conditional dispersal strategies. Ill-defined use of the term ‘dispersal’, for movement across many different spatial scales, further hinders making general conclusions and relating movement correlates to consequences at the population level. Logistical difficulties preclude a detailed study of dispersal for many species, however incorporating unrealistic dispersal assumptions in spatial population models may yield inaccurate and costly predictions. Further studies are necessary to explore the importance of incorporating specific condition-dependent dispersal strategies for evolutionary and population dynamic predictions.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1017/S1464793104006645

Causes and consequences of animal dispersal strategies: relating individual behaviour to spatial dynamics.

Individual-based modeling is a new, exciting discipline that allows ecologists to explore, using computer simulations, how properties of populations and ecosystems might evolve from the characteristics and behaviors of individual organisms. Individual-based Modeling and Ecology, written by Volker Grimm and Steven F. Railsback, gives an excellent introduction and overview of this field. It should be read by everyone interested in individual-based modeling, and especially by anyone contemplating developing, or being involved with a group developing, an individualbased model.

http://www.gbv.de/dms/weimar/toc/396272002_toc.pdf

Individual-based modeling and ecology

Though many processes are involved in determining which species coexist and assemble into communities, competition is among the best studied. One hypothesis about competition's contribution to community assembly is that more closely related species are less likely to coexist. Though empirical evidence for this hypothesis is mixed, it remains a common assumption in certain phylogenetic approaches for inferring the effects of environmental filtering and competitive exclusion. Here, we relate modern coexistence theory to phylogenetic community assembly approaches to refine expectations for how species relatedness influences the outcome of competition. We argue that two types of species differences determine competitive exclusion with opposing effects on relatedness patterns. Importantly, this means that competition can sometimes eliminate more different and less related taxa, even when the traits underlying the relevant species differences are phylogenetically conserved. Our argument leads to a reinterpretation of the assembly processes inferred from community phylogenetic structure.

Opposing effects of competitive exclusion on the phylogenetic structure of communities

Handbuch der Software DSS-Ecopay Version 2.0 zur Bestimmung kosteneffizienter Ausgleichszahlungen für Maßnahmen zum Schutz gefährdeter Arten und Lebensraumtypen im Grünland

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.

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Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.

Flexible conservation management, where measures (e.g., mowing of meadows, removing invasive species) are selected in each decision period depending on the current state of the ecological system, is generally perceived as superior to fixed management, where the same measure is applied in each decision period independent of the current state of the system. In past comparisons of fixed and flexible conservation strategies the additional costs that arise only in flexible strategies have usually been ignored. In this paper, we present a framework to integrate costs of flexible management into the evaluation of flexible conservation strategies. Using the example of an endangered butterfly species we demonstrate that the costs of flexible management may reverse the rank order of flexible and fixed conservation strategies, such that fixed strategies may lead to better ecological results than flexible ones for the same financial budget.

Integrating Economic Costs into the Analysis of Flexible Conservation Management

Cost effectiveness of agri-environment schemes for biodiversity protection and ecosystem service restoration (CASPER – MKM Nature)

Forage availability has been suggested as one driver of the observed decline in honeybees. However, little is known about the effects of its spatiotemporal variation on colony success. We present a modelling framework for assessing honeybee colony viability in cropping systems. Based on two real farmland structures, we developed a landscape generator to design cropping systems varying in crop species identity, diversity, and relative abundance. The landscape scenarios generated were evaluated using the existing honeybee colony model BEEHAVE, which links foraging to in-hive dynamics. We thereby explored how different cropping systems determine spatiotemporal forage availability and, in turn, honeybee colony viability (e.g., time to extinction, TTE) and resilience (indicated by, e.g. brood mortality). To assess overall colony viability, we developed metrics, PH and PP, which quantified how much nectar and pollen provided by a cropping system per year was converted into a colony’s adult worker population. Both crop species identity and diversity determined the temporal continuity in nectar and pollen supply and thus colony viability. Overall farmland structure and relative crop abundance were less important, but details mattered. For monocultures and for four-crop species systems composed of cereals, oilseed rape, maize and sunflower, PH and PP were below the viability threshold. Such cropping systems showed frequent, badly timed, and prolonged forage gaps leading to detrimental cascading effects on life stages and in-hive work force, which critically reduced colony resilience. Four-crop systems composed of rye-grass-dandelion pasture, trefoil-grass pasture, sunflower and phacelia ensured continuous nectar and pollen supply resulting in TTE > 5 years, and PH (269.5 kg) and PP (108 kg) being above viability thresholds for five years. Overall, trefoil-grass pasture, oilseed rape, buckwheat and phacelia improved the temporal continuity in forage supply and colony’s viability. Our results are hypothetical as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they nevertheless match empirical observations, in particular the viability threshold. Our framework can be used to assess the effects of cropping systems on honeybee viability and to develop land-use strategies that help maintain pollination services by avoiding prolonged and badly timed forage gaps.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/12/18/2019.12.17.880054.full.pdf

Karin Johst

Papers

Handbuch der Software DSS-Ecopay Version 2.0 zur Bestimmung kosteneffizienter Ausgleichszahlungen für Maßnahmen zum Schutz gefährdeter Arten und Lebensraumtypen im Grünland

Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.

Integrating Economic Costs into the Analysis of Flexible Conservation Management

Cost effectiveness of agri-environment schemes for biodiversity protection and ecosystem service restoration (CASPER – MKM Nature)

Honeybee colony performance affected by crop diversity and farmland structure: a modelling framework