Atmospheric levels of CO2 are commonly assumed to be a main driver of global climate. Independent empirical evidence suggests that the galactic cosmic ray flux (CRF) is linked to climate variability. Both drivers are presently discussed in the context of daily to millennial variations, although they should also operate over geological time scales. Here we analyze the reconstructed seawater paleotemperature record for the Phanerozoic (past 545 m.y.), and compare it with the variable CRF reaching Earth and with the reconstructed partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 (pCO2). We find that at least 66% of the variance in the paleotemperature trend could be attributed to CRF variations likely due to solar system passages through the spiral arms of the galaxy. Assuming that the entire residual variance in temperature is due solely to the CO2 greenhouse effect, we propose a tentative upper limit to the long-term “equilibrium” warming effect of CO2, one which is potentially lower than that based on general circulation models.

/pdf/celestial-driver-of-phanerozoic-climate-5byawe45ma.pdf

Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate

The NASA Glory mission is intended to facilitate and improve upon long-term monitoring of two key forcings influencing global climate. One of the mission's principal objectives is to determine the global distribution of detailed aerosol and cloud properties with unprecedented accuracy, thereby facilitating the quantification of the aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. The other is to continue the 28-yr record of satellite-based measurements of total solar irradiance from which the effect of solar variability on the Earth's climate is quantified. These objectives will be met by flying two state-of-the-art science instruments on an Earth-orbiting platform. Based on a proven technique demonstrated with an aircraft-based prototype, the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS) will collect accurate multiangle photopolarimetric measurements of the Earth along the satellite ground track within a wide spectral range extending from the visible to the shortwave infrared. The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) is an ...

Accurate monitoring of terrestrial aerosols and total solar irradiance: Introducing the Glory mission

This paper reviews permafrost in High Arctic Svalbard, including past and current research, climatic background, how permafrost is affected by climatic change, typical permafrost landforms and how changes in Svalbard permafrost may impact natural and human systems. Information on active layer dynamics, permafrost and ground ice characteristics and selected periglacial features is summarized from the recent literature and from unpublished data by the authors. Permafrost thickness ranges from less than 100 m near the coasts to more than 500 m in the highlands. Ground ice is present as rock glaciers, as ice-cored moraines, buried glacial ice, and in pingos and ice wedges in major valleys. Engineering problems of thaw-settlement and frost-heave are described, and the implications for road design and construction in Svalbard permafrost areas are discussed.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.3402/polar.v22i2.6455

Permafrost in Svalbard: a review of research history, climatic background and engineering challenges

Emerging Web services, such as email, photo sharing, and web site archives, must preserve large volumes of quickly accessible data indefinitely into the future. The costs of doing so often determine whether the service is economically viable. We make the case that these applications' demands on large scale storage systems over long time horizons require us to reevaluate traditional system designs. We examine threats to long-lived data from an end-to-end perspective, taking into account not just hardware and software faults but also faults due to humans and organizations. We present a simple model of long-term storage failures that helps us reason about various strategies for addressing some of these threats. Using this model we show that the most important strategies for increasing the reliability of long-term storage are detecting latent faults quickly, automating fault repair to make it cheaper and faster, and increasing the independence of data replicas.

/pdf/a-fresh-look-at-the-reliability-of-long-term-digital-storage-3yfe0reuqs.pdf

A fresh look at the reliability of long-term digital storage

The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) instrument is designed to measure total solar irradiance with an absolute accuracy of 100 parts per million. Four electrical substitution radiometers behind precision apertures measure input radiant power while providing redundancy. Duty cycling the use of the radiometers tracks degradation of the nickel-phosphorous absorptive black radiometer interiors caused by solar exposure. Phase sensitive detection at the shutter frequency reduces noise and simplifies the estimate of the radiometer’s equivalence ratio. An as-designed uncertainty budget estimates the instrument’s accuracy goal. The TIM measurement equation defines the conversion from measured signal to solar irradiance.

https://www.leif.org/EOS/Kopp-Lawrence-TIM-Design.pdf

The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Instrument Design

From the frequencies of sunspot and aurora sightings, abundance of carbon-14 in the rings of long-lived trees, and beryllium-10 in the annual ice layers of polar ice cores, we have reconstructed the history of a variable Sun. In the last 1,800 years, the Sun has gone through nine cycles of changes in brightness. While these long-term variations account for less than 1%of the total irradiance, there is clear evidence that they affect the Earth's climate.

Ancient observations link changes in Sun's brightness and Earth's climate

Computer analysis of some ancient Chinese sunrise eclipse records to determine the earth's rotation rate

Of the forces changing the Earth’s rotation, tidal braking and postglacial rebound predominate at a timescale ≥102yr (HIDE and DICKEY, 1991; DICKEY, 1992). Analysis of ancient eclipse records has given values for the clock error ΔT and the time derivative of the Earth’s dynamic oblateness J 2 for the past 3,300 yr. Since ΔT = AT - UT = ct 2, where AT is Atomic (cesium clock) Time, UT is Universal (Earth rotation) Time, and t is the number of centuries before 1800, the oldest data have the most weight. Sunrise and sunset eclipses are especially valuable, as they can be retrospectively timed.

The Earth’s Palaeorotation, Postglacial Rebound and Lower Mantle Viscosity from Analysis of Ancient Chinese Eclipse Records

All 13 Shang dynasty oracle bone eclipse records have been uniquely matched to six solar and seven lunar eclipses in the 14th to 12th centuries B.C. The King Zhong Kang fifth year autumnal (October 16, 1876 B.C.) and King Yu third year “double sunset” (September 24, 1912 B.C.) eclipses confirm the accuracy of the revised Bamboo Annals Xia dynasty chronology (Nivison and Pang, Early China 15, 1990, 87-95). The eclipse dates are plotted against the number of generations before 841 B.C. (the earliest accurate historical date), the respective kings ruled. The curve of bestfit has both the strengths of verified royal genealogy — continuity — and eclipse dating — accuracy. It is 99% accurate, and can be confidently used as a foundation for building a detailed absolute chronology for the Xia, Shang and Zhou dynasties, an important project in China’s current Five-Year Plan (Song Jian, Sci. Tech. Daily, May 17, 1996; Wehrfritz, Newsweek, July 7, 1997).

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-94-015-9862-0_9.pdf

Astronomical Dating and Statistical Analysis of Ancient Eclipse Data

All 13 Shang dynasty oracle bone eclipse records have been uniquely matched to 6 solar and 7 lunar eclipses in the 14-12th centuries B.C. The King Zhong Kang 5th year autumnal (Oct. 16, 1876 B.C.) and King Yu 3rd year ”double sunset” (Sept. 24, 1912 B.C.) eclipses confirm the accuracy of the revised Bamboo Annals Xia dynasty chronology (Nivision and Pang, Early China 15,1990, 87). The eclipse dates are plotted against the number of generations before 841 B.C. (earliest accurate date), the respective kings ruled. The curve of benefit has both the strengths of verified royal genealogy — continuity — and eclipse dating — accuracy. It is 99% accurate, and can be confidently used as a foundation for building a detailed absolute chronology for the Xia, Shang and Zhou dynasties, an important project in China’s new 5-Year Plan (Song, Sci. Tech. Daily, May 17, 1996; Newsweek, July 7, 1997).

Kevin D. Pang

Papers

Ancient observations link changes in Sun's brightness and Earth's climate

Computer analysis of some ancient Chinese sunrise eclipse records to determine the earth's rotation rate

The Earth’s Palaeorotation, Postglacial Rebound and Lower Mantle Viscosity from Analysis of Ancient Chinese Eclipse Records

Astronomical Dating and Statistical Analysis of Ancient Eclipse Data

Astronomical Dating and Statistical Analysis of Ancient Chinese Eclipse Data