https://research.aalto.fi/files/11703862/1_s2.0_S0951832015000356_main.pdf

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

Probability modelling of vessel collisions

Automatic collision avoidance of multiple ships based on deep Q-learning

The Strait of Istanbul, the narrow waterway separating Europe from Asia, holds a strategic importance in maritime transportation as it links the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. It is considered as one of the world's most congested and difficult-to-navigate waterways. Over 55,000 transit vessels pass through the Strait annually, roughly 20% of which carry dangerous cargo. In this study, we have analyzed safety risks pertaining to transit vessel maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul and proposed ways to mitigate them. Safety risk analysis was performed by incorporating a probabilistic accident risk model into the simulation model. A mathematical risk model was developed based on probabilistic arguments regarding instigators, situations, accidents, consequences, and historical data, as well as subject-matter expert opinions. Scenario analysis was carried out to study the behavior of the accident risks, with respect to changes in the surrounding geographical, meteorological, and traffic conditions. Our numerical investigations suggested some significant policy indications. Local traffic density and pilotage turned out to be two main factors affecting the risks at the Strait of Istanbul. Results further indicate that scheduling changes to allow more vessels into the Strait will increase risks to extreme levels. Conversely, scheduling policy changes that are opted to reduce risks may cause major increases in average vessel waiting times. This in turn signifies that the current operations at the Strait of Istanbul have reached a critical level beyond which both risks and vessel delays are unacceptable.

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Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul

http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/Publications/TechnicalReports/NSFProject/RESS2003.pdf

A traffic density analysis of proposed ferry service expansion in San Francisco Bay using a maritime simulation model

A comprehensive assessment system for the maritime traffic environment

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jin/83/0/83_KJ00004841392/_pdf

The Subjective Risk Assessment on Ships Collisions

In order to satisfy the demand for highly automated and fully safe ship operation, it is desirable that an Integrated Navigation System (INS) has an intelligent decision-making supporting function. Such a function can propose a proper maneuvering action to operators. Of course, the operators should decide a final action by their judgment supported by other available supporting functions of the INS. To implement such a supporting function, the authors have developed a collision avoidance expert system for such the INS. In this paper, the structure of developed knowledge bases, the inference procedure, the brush-up of the developed knowledge bases using ship handling simulator, and some simulation results are reported. Some concepts and methods concerned to this knowledge base system, such as the classification of the target ships, the unblocking scope of the ship handling space and the prediction of plural actions of target ships, are proposed. The conclusion is that the developed collision avoidance expert system possesses sophisticated problem solving ability for the collision avoidance and it can provide an effective support for operators' decision-making.

Kiyoshi Hara

Papers

A comprehensive assessment system for the maritime traffic environment

The Subjective Risk Assessment on Ships Collisions

A collision avoidance expert system for integrated navigation system and its brush-up

Proposal of manoeuvring standards to avoid collision in congested sea area

A Basic Study on Automatic Course Line Setting