The title ‘The Value of Outcrop Studies in Reducing Subsurface Uncertainty and Risk’ might suggest that we expect new information to improve prospect risk, but this is not correct. Gaining new information generally does change our estimate of prospect risk: the change may be up or down, and the average of all possibilities is zero change. You cannot acquire data for the purpose of increasing the probability of success. We should expect that: (a) the expected value of the risk of a single prospect, post-data, is equal to the prior (pre-data) value; and (b) risk should become worse for the majority of prospects. New information adds value, not from changing pre-drill risk, but from decisions made as a consequence. The main value added is from identifying prospects not to drill, thereby saving the cost of likely dry holes, and by choosing the ones to test first, accelerating revenue from a successful outcome. Further value is added if the new information leads to the identification of new prospects or new plays, or suggests follow-on potential elsewhere in the region. Value may also be added if the new information is negative for a whole region, enabling us to focus our attention elsewhere.

Do technical studies reduce subsurface risk in hydrocarbon exploration: and if not, how do they add value?

Marketing R.esearch,\" and \"Industrial Marketing Research as an Aid to Forecasting.\" Throughout, the author assumes his reader has little o~ no knowledge of the field. Techniques are described with emphasis on the practical aspects of application. Relevant research techniques are reviewed and special approac~es .are noted to adapt consumer techniques to researching Industrial markets. . A. short ?ibliography, listing both U.S. and U.K. pub!IcatlOns, .gIves more detailed coverage of the material included In each chapter. In addition, there is an excellent ten-page \"Industrial Marketing Researchers Check List.\" Since this is an introduction to the subject it is surprising .that a chapter was not devoted to the Standard Industnal Classification (SIC) system. While there are ~cattered references, material explaining the system and Its fundamental importance to industrial marketers in the early pages would have enhanced later discussions. Two oth~r topics probably deserve greater coverage. The first IS the role of industrial marketing research in ~he ~orporate planning process. The other is the growmg Importance of computerized Management Information Systems (MIS) and the interrelationship of such syste~s with industrial marketing research. ThIS volume is a welcome addition to the industrial m~rketing scene. It and an earlier volume by Aubrey ~ilson ~re the only books devoted entirely to the subject of. mdustrial marketing research. It will be useful to busmessmen in various levels of industrial marketi?g ~anagement who want a clearly written and practical mtroduction to the subject. Industrial marketing researc~ managers will find the book a good review of the baSICS, as well as an ideal introduction for newcom~rs. Teachers of industrial marketing can utilize porttons as a supplementary text.

Book Review: To Deal with Research's Credibility Gap:

An Introduction to Bayesian Statistical Processes@@@Bayesian Decision Problems and Markov Chains@@@Probability for Management Decisions@@@Statistical Analysis for Business Decisions@@@Statistics for Modern Business Decision Making

Kyohei Sasaki

Papers

An Introduction to Bayesian Statistical Processes@@@Bayesian Decision Problems and Markov Chains@@@Probability for Management Decisions@@@Statistical Analysis for Business Decisions@@@Statistics for Modern Business Decision Making