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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-the-physical-science-basis-1x93ttz9jt.pdf

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

/pdf/on-underestimation-of-global-vulnerability-to-tree-mortality-1w5zrntf70.pdf

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) quantifies the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. Previous studies have shown that climate constraints were relaxing with increasing temperature and solar radiation, allowing an upward trend in NPP from 1982 through 1999. The past decade (2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued increases in NPP; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production.

Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009

The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, 4th edn. By C. Chatfield. ISBN 0 412 31820 2. Chapman and Hall, London, 1989. 242 pp. £13.50.

The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction

Hydraulic parameters are required for numerical simulations of unsaturated flow at Yucca Mountain, a vertically heterogeneous volcanic site for a potential high-level waste repository in the desert southwest. In this paper, direct measurements of the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity using a centrifuge with a specialized rotor are compared to those estimated using a predictive conductivity equation and two methods of measuring moisture retention.

Unsaturated hydraulic parameters determined from direct and indirect methods

The chaparral-dominated national forests of southern California were in part established to provide water provision services to the surrounding urban populations and irrigation for agriculture. However, water provision in the form of groundwater recharge and surface runoff depends on the climatological conditions of any given year and also landscape-scale disturbances such as fire. Fire is increasing in frequency in southern California and understanding its impacts both immediately postfire and as vegetation recovers, and the interactions between fire and hydrology, are key components to managing federal lands effectively. In this study we focus on nine fires in a study area that encompasses the four southern California national forests (Los Padres, Angeles, San Bernardino, and Cleveland) and use a water balance model to investigate the effects of water provision services post-fire at a regional scale. We found that runoff and recharge increased post-fire, with increases in recharge being greater with recovery times ranging from 2 to 4 y post-fire. Vegetation recovery occurred 2 y post-fire for all basins as indicated by remotely sensed imagery measuring vegetation greenness having returned to or exceeded pre-fire values for the basin. We found that runoff and recharge were more sensitive to the effects of climate than to length of time post-fire. Findings from these modeling tools allow users to anticipate the impact of fire on water provision services in the region and develop management strategies that help reduce the impacts of wildfire.

Characterizing the Influence of Fire on Hydrology in Southern California

Input, calibration, uncertainty, and limitations of the basin characterization model: appendix three

https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1752-1688.12744

A Multi‐Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring Strategy for California: Design and Validation

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2019WR026245

Lorraine E. Flint

Papers

Unsaturated hydraulic parameters determined from direct and indirect methods

Characterizing the Influence of Fire on Hydrology in Southern California

Input, calibration, uncertainty, and limitations of the basin characterization model: appendix three

A Multi‐Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring Strategy for California: Design and Validation

The Future of Sediment Transport and Streamflow Under a Changing Climate and the Implications for Long-Term Resilience of the San Francisco Bay-Delta