Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease 'hotspots'). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate.

/pdf/global-trends-in-emerging-infectious-diseases-374pmkz71y.pdf

Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

The most unique feature of Earth is the existence of life, and the most extraordinary feature of life is its diversity. Approximately 9 million types of plants, animals, protists and fungi inhabit the Earth. So, too, do 7 billion people. Two decades ago, at the first Earth Summit, the vast majority of the world's nations declared that human actions were dismantling the Earth's ecosystems, eliminating genes, species and biological traits at an alarming rate. This observation led to the question of how such loss of biological diversity will alter the functioning of ecosystems and their ability to provide society with the goods and services needed to prosper.

/pdf/biodiversity-loss-and-its-impact-on-humanity-2d0fgc88mg.pdf

Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity

A comprehensive literature review identifies 1415 species of infectious organism known to be pathogenic to humans, including 217 viruses and prions, 538 bacteria and rickettsia, 307 fungi, 66 protozoa and 287 helminths. Out of these, 868 (61%) are zoonotic, that is, they can be transmitted between humans and animals, and 175 pathogenic species are associated with diseases considered to be 'emerging'. We test the hypothesis that zoonotic pathogens are more likely to be associated with emerging diseases than non-emerging ones. Out of the emerging pathogens, 132 (75%) are zoonotic, and overall, zoonotic pathogens are twice as likely to be associated with emerging diseases than non-zoonotic pathogens. However, the result varies among taxa, with protozoa and viruses particularly likely to emerge, and helminths particularly unlikely to do so, irrespective of their zoonotic status. No association between transmission route and emergence was found. This study represents the first quantitative analysis identifying risk factors for human disease emergence.

/pdf/risk-factors-for-human-disease-emergence-3z0gdrxa92.pdf

Risk factors for human disease emergence.

The microbial communities of humans are characteristic and complex mixtures of microorganisms that have co-evolved with their human hosts. The species that make up these communities vary between hosts as a result of restricted migration of microorganisms between hosts and strong ecological interactions within hosts, as well as host variability in terms of diet, genotype and colonization history. The shared evolutionary fate of humans and their symbiotic bacteria has selected for mutualistic interactions that are essential for human health, and ecological or genetic changes that uncouple this shared fate can result in disease. In this way, looking to ecological and evolutionary principles might provide new strategies for restoring and maintaining human health.

/pdf/an-ecological-and-evolutionary-perspective-on-human-microbe-3smcjqo44r.pdf

An ecological and evolutionary perspective on human–microbe mutualism and disease

Many of the major human infectious diseases, including some now confined to humans and absent from animals, are 'new' ones that arose only after the origins of agriculture. Where did they come from? Why are they overwhelmingly of Old World origins? Here we show that answers to these questions are different for tropical and temperate diseases; for instance, in the relative importance of domestic animals and wild primates as sources. We identify five intermediate stages through which a pathogen exclusively infecting animals may become transformed into a pathogen exclusively infecting humans. We propose an initiative to resolve disputed origins of major diseases, and a global early warning system to monitor pathogens infecting individuals exposed to wild animals.

/pdf/origins-of-major-human-infectious-diseases-553mna2jwa.pdf

Origins of major human infectious diseases

Pathogens that can be transmitted between different host species are of fundamental interest and importance from public health, conservation and economic perspectives, yet systematic quantification of these pathogens is lacking. Here, pathogen characteristics, host range and risk factors determining disease emergence were analysed by constructing a database of disease–causing pathogens of humans and domestic mammals. The database consisted of 1415 pathogens causing disease in humans, 616 in livestock and 374 in domestic carnivores. Multihost pathogens were very prevalent among human pathogens (61.6%) and even more so among domestic mammal pathogens (livestock 77.3%, carnivores 90.0%). Pathogens able to infect human, domestic and wildlife hosts contained a similar proportion of disease–causing pathogens for all three host groups. One hundred and ninety–six pathogens were associated with emerging diseases, 175 in humans, 29 in livestock and 12 in domestic carnivores. Across all these groups, helminths and fungi were relatively unlikely to emerge whereas viruses, particularly RNA viruses, were highly likely to emerge. The ability of a pathogen to infect multiple hosts, particularly hosts in other taxonomic orders or wildlife, were also risk factors for emergence in human and livestock pathogens. There is clearly a need to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases in complex multihost communities in order to mitigate disease threats to public health, livestock economies and wildlife.

/pdf/diseases-of-humans-and-their-domestic-mammals-pathogen-1g4e0walta.pdf

Diseases of humans and their domestic mammals: pathogen characteristics, host range and the risk of emergence

The majority of pathogens, including many of medical and veterinary importance, can infect more than one species of host. Population biology has yet to explain why perceived evolutionary advantages of pathogen specialization are, in practice, outweighed by those of generalization. Factors that predispose pathogens to generalism include high levels of genetic diversity and abundant opportunities for cross-species transmission, and the taxonomic distributions of generalists and specialists appear to reflect these factors. Generalism also has consequences for the evolution of virulence and for pathogen epidemiology, making both much less predictable. The evolutionary advantages and disadvantages of generalism are so finely balanced that even closely related pathogens can have very different host range sizes.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/292/5519/1109.full.pdf

Population Biology of Multihost Pathogens

Microparasite infections often consist of genetically distinct clonal lineages. Ecological interactions between these lineages within hosts can influence disease severity, epidemiology, and evolution. Many medical and veterinary interventions have an impact on genetic diversity within infections, but there is little understanding of the long-term consequences of such interventions for public and animal health. Indeed, much of the theory in this area is based on assumptions contradicted by the available data.

/pdf/the-ecology-of-genetically-diverse-infections-38d9zmeqn7.pdf

Louise H. Taylor

Papers

Risk factors for human disease emergence.

Diseases of humans and their domestic mammals: pathogen characteristics, host range and the risk of emergence

Population Biology of Multihost Pathogens

The ecology of genetically diverse infections.

Why so few transmission stages? Reproductive restraint by malaria parasites