We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

The steep rise of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and associated complications go along with mounting evidence of clinically important sex and gender differences. T2DM is more frequently diagnosed at lower age and body mass index in men; however, the most prominent risk factor, which is obesity, is more common in women. Generally, large sex-ratio differences across countries are observed. Diversities in biology, culture, lifestyle, environment, and socioeconomic status impact differences between males and females in predisposition, development, and clinical presentation. Genetic effects and epigenetic mechanisms, nutritional factors and sedentary lifestyle affect risk and complications differently in both sexes. Furthermore, sex hormones have a great impact on energy metabolism, body composition, vascular function, and inflammatory responses. Thus, endocrine imbalances relate to unfavorable cardiometabolic traits, observable in women with androgen excess or men with hypogonadism. Both biological and psychosocial factors are responsible for sex and gender differences in diabetes risk and outcome. Overall, psychosocial stress appears to have greater impact on women rather than on men. In addition, women have greater increases of cardiovascular risk, myocardial infarction, and stroke mortality than men, compared with nondiabetic subjects. However, when dialysis therapy is initiated, mortality is comparable in both males and females. Diabetes appears to attenuate the protective effect of the female sex in the development of cardiac diseases and nephropathy. Endocrine and behavioral factors are involved in gender inequalities and affect the outcome. More research regarding sex-dimorphic pathophysiological mechanisms of T2DM and its complications could contribute to more personalized diabetes care in the future and would thus promote more awareness in terms of sex- and gender-specific risk factors.

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Sex and Gender Differences in Risk, Pathophysiology and Complications of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Background: Tobacco smoking is the cause of many preventable diseases and premature deaths in the UK and around the world. It poses enormous health- and non-health-related costs to the affected individuals, employers, and the society at large. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that, globally, smoking causes over US$500 billion in economic damage each year.
Objectives: This paper examines global and UK evidence on the economic impact of smoking prevalence and evaluates the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of smoking cessation measures.
Study selection
Search methods: We used two major health care/economic research databases, namely PubMed and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) database that contains the British National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database; Cochrane Library of systematic reviews in health care and health policy; and other health-care-related bibliographic sources. We also performed hand searching of relevant articles, health reports, and white papers issued by government bodies, international health organizations, and health intervention campaign agencies.
Selection criteria: The paper includes cost-effectiveness studies from medical journals, health reports, and white papers published between 1992 and July 2014, but included only eight relevant studies before 1992. Most of the papers reviewed reported outcomes on smoking prevalence, as well as the direct and indirect costs of smoking and the costs and benefits of smoking cessation interventions. We excluded papers that merely described the effectiveness of an intervention without including economic or cost considerations. We also excluded papers that combine smoking cessation with the reduction in the risk of other diseases.
Data collection and analysis: The included studies were assessed against criteria indicated in the Cochrane Reviewers Handbook version 5.0.0.
Outcomes assessed in the review: Primary outcomes of the selected studies are smoking prevalence, direct and indirect costs of smoking, and the costs and benefits of smoking cessation interventions (eg, “cost per quitter”, “cost per life year saved”, “cost per quality-adjusted life year gained,” “present value” or “net benefits” from smoking cessation, and “cost savings” from personal health care expenditure).
Main results: The main findings of this study are as follows:
1. The costs of smoking can be classified into direct, indirect, and intangible costs. About 15% of the aggregate health care expenditure in high-income countries can be attributed to smoking. In the US, the proportion of health care expenditure attributable to smoking ranges between 6% and 18% across different states. In the UK, the direct costs of smoking to the NHS have been estimated at between £2.7 billion and £5.2 billion, which is equivalent to around 5% of the total NHS budget each year. The economic burden of smoking estimated in terms of GDP reveals that smoking accounts for approximately 0.7% of China’s GDP and approximately 1% of US GDP. As part of the indirect (non-health-related) costs of smoking, the total productivity losses caused by smoking each year in the US have been estimated at US$151 billion.
2.The costs of smoking notwithstanding, it produces some potential economic benefits. The economic activities generated from the production and consumption of tobacco provides economic stimulus. It also produces huge tax revenues for most governments, especially in high-income countries, as well as employment in the tobacco industry. Income from the tobacco industry accounts for up to 7.4% of centrally collected government revenue in China. Smoking also yields cost savings in pension payments from the premature death of smokers.
3. Smoking cessation measures could range from pharmacological treatment interventions to policy-based measures, community-based interventions, telecoms, media, and technology (TMT)-based interventions, school-based interventions, and workplace interventions.
4. The cost per life year saved from the use of pharmacological treatment interventions ranged between US$128 and US$1,450 and up to US$4,400 per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved. The use of pharmacotherapies such as varenicline, NRT, and Bupropion, when combined with GP counseling or other behavioral treatment interventions (such as proactive telephone counseling and Web-based delivery), is both clinically effective and cost effective to primary health care providers.
5. Price-based policy measures such as increase in tobacco taxes are unarguably the most effective means of reducing the consumption of tobacco. A 10% tax-induced cigarette price increase anywhere in the world reduces smoking prevalence by between 4% and 8%. Net public benefits from tobacco tax, however, remain positive only when tax rates are between 42.9% and 91.1%. The cost effectiveness ratio of implementing non-price-based smoking cessation legislations (such as smoking restrictions in work places, public places, bans on tobacco advertisement, and raising the legal age of smokers) range from US$2 to US$112 per life year gained (LYG) while reducing smoking prevalence by up to 30%–82% in the long term (over a 50-year period).
6. Smoking cessation classes are known to be most effective among community-based measures, as they could lead to a quit rate of up to 35%, but they usually incur higher costs than other measures such as self-help quit-smoking kits. On average, community pharmacist-based smoking cessation programs yield cost savings to the health system of between US$500 and US$614 per LYG.
7. Advertising media, telecommunications, and other technology-based interventions (such as TV, radio, print, telephone, the Internet, PC, and other electronic media) usually have positive synergistic effects in reducing smoking prevalence especially when combined to deliver smoking cessation messages and counseling support. However, the outcomes on the cost effectiveness of TMT-based measures have been inconsistent, and this made it difficult to attribute results to specific media. The differences in reported cost effectiveness may be partly attributed to varying methodological approaches including varying parametric inputs, differences in national contexts, differences in advertising campaigns tested on different media, and disparate levels of resourcing between campaigns. Due to its universal reach and low implementation costs, online campaign appears to be substantially more cost effective than other media, though it may not be as effective in reducing smoking prevalence.
8. School-based smoking prevalence programs tend to reduce short-term smoking prevalence by between 30% and 70%. Total intervention costs could range from US$16,400 to US$580,000 depending on the scale and scope of intervention. The cost effectiveness of school-based programs show that one could expect a saving of approximately between US$2,000 and US$20,000 per QALY saved due to averted smoking after 2–4 years of follow-up.
9. Workplace-based interventions could represent a sound economic investment to both employers and the society at large, achieving a benefit–cost ratio of up to 8.75 and generating 12-month employer cost savings of between $150 and $540 per nonsmoking employee. Implementing smoke-free workplaces would also produce myriads of new quitters and reduce the amount of cigarette consumption, leading to cost savings in direct medical costs to primary health care providers. Workplace interventions are, however, likely to yield far greater economic benefits over the long term, as reduced prevalence will lead to a healthier and more productive workforce.
Conclusions: We conclude that the direct costs and externalities to society of smoking far outweigh any benefits that might be accruable at least when considered from the perspective of socially desirable outcomes (ie, in terms of a healthy population and a productive workforce). There are enormous differences in the application and economic measurement of smoking cessation measures across various types of interventions, methodologies, countries, economic settings, and health care systems, and these may have affected the comparability of the results of the studies reviewed. However, on the balance of probabilities, most of the cessation measures reviewed have not only proved effective but also cost effective in delivering the much desired cost savings and net gains to individuals and primary health care providers.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.4137/TUI.S15628

The Economic Impact of Smoking and of Reducing Smoking Prevalence: Review of Evidence

ContextDespite nearly 4 million deliveries in the United States each year,
minimal information exists on unintended health consequences following childbirth,
particularly in relation to delivery method.ObjectiveTo assess the risk for maternal rehospitalization associated with cesarean
or assisted vaginal delivery compared with spontaneous vaginal delivery.DesignRetrospective cohort study of data from the Washington State Birth Events
Record Database for 1987 through November 1, 1996.Setting and ParticipantsAll primiparous women without selected chronic medical conditions who
delivered live singleton infants in nonfederal short-stay hospitals in Washington
State (N=256,795).Main Outcome MeasuresRelative risks (RRs) of rehospitalization within 60 days of cesarean
or assisted vaginal vs spontaneous vaginal deliveries.ResultsA total of 3149 women (1.2%) were rehospitalized within 60 days of delivery.
In logistic regression analyses adjusting for maternal age, rehospitalization
was found to be more likely among women with cesarean delivery (RR, 1.8; 95%
confidence interval [CI], 1.6-1.9) or assisted vaginal delivery (RR, 1.3;
95% CI, 1.2-1.4) than among women with spontaneous vaginal delivery. Cesarean
delivery was associated with significantly increased risks of rehospitalization
for uterine infection, obstetrical surgical wound complications, and cardiopulmonary
and thromboembolic conditions. Among women with assisted vaginal delivery,
significant increased risks were seen for rehospitalization with postpartum
hemorrhage, obstetrical surgical wound complications, and pelvic injury.ConclusionsWomen with cesarean and assisted vaginal deliveries were at increased
risk for rehospitalization, particularly with infectious morbidities. Effective
strategies for preventing and controlling peripartum infection should be an
obstetrical priority.

Association Between Method of Delivery and Maternal Rehospitalization

Out-of-home foods (takeaway, take-out and fast foods) have become increasingly popular in recent decades and are thought to be a key driver in increasing levels of overweight and obesity due to their unfavourable nutritional content. Individual food choices and eating behaviours are influenced by many interrelated factors which affect the results of nutrition-related public health interventions. While the majority of research based on out-of-home foods comes from Australia, the UK and USA, the same issues (poor dietary habits and increased prevalence of non-communicable disease) are of equal concern for urban centres in developing economies undergoing 'nutrition transition' at a global scale. The present narrative review documents key facets, which may influence out-of-home food consumption, drawn from biological, societal, environmental, demographic and psychological spheres. Literature searches were performed and references from relevant papers were used to find supplementary studies. Findings suggest that the strongest determinants of out-of-home food availability are density of food outlets and deprivation within the built environment; however, the association between socio-economic status and out-of-home food consumption has been challenged. In addition, the biological and psychological drives combined with a culture where overweight and obesity are becoming the norm makes it 'fashionable' to consume out-of-home food. Other factors, including age group, ethnicity and gender demonstrate contrasting effects and a lack of consensus. It is concluded that further consideration of the determinants of out-of-home food consumption within specific populations is crucial to inform the development of targeted interventions to reduce the impact of out-of-home foods on public health.

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Determinants of takeaway and fast food consumption: a narrative review.

In this paper, we estimate price and income semi-elasticities of the length of stay at different destinations in Italy using the ‘Multipurpose survey on tourism demand, holidays and trips’ provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) We derive the conditional demand function for the length of stay, which depends on tourists' socio-demographic characteristics, travel characteristics, income and price of touristic services Since income was not reported in our database, we use the propensity score matching to retrieve this information from the ‘Survey on household income and wealth (SHIW)’, and we use quantile regression to account for the multimodality of the length of stay Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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Length of Stay: Price and Income Semi-Elasticities at Different Destinations in Italy

This paper investigates the effect of income- and wealth-based poverty on the probability of being obese for the elderly in Europe by analysing data drawn from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement (SHARE) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We use early-life economic conditions and regional circumstances as instruments for poverty later in life to account for endogeneity issues. After controlling for a large set of covariates at the individual, household, regional and country level, the results show that poverty significantly increases the probability of being obese and the Body Mass Index (BMI), for men and women. The results show that, accounting for endogeneity with a bivariate probit model, poor individuals are from 10 to 20% points more likely to be obese than non-poor individuals. The effect on BMI ranges from 0.295 points (2.39 kg) to 0.395 points (2.75 kg). These results are robust to a series of checks and suggest that anti-poverty interventions might have positive side effects in terms of reducing food-related health inequalities.

Investigating the poverty-obesity paradox in Europe

Background
Many governments have made commitments to examine inequalities in healthcare access based on studies assessing the association between several socio-demographic factors and late initiation or fewer prenatal examinations. This study addressed the question of whether socio-demographic determinants were significant in explaining differences in prenatal care in one administrative region of Italy, Umbria.

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Socio-demographic determinants and access to prenatal care in Italy.

Fast-food consumption and body weight. Evidence from the UK

The short-term effects of public smoking bans on individual smoking and drinking habits were investigated in this paper. In 2005, a smoking ban was introduced in Italy, and we exploited this exogenous variation to measure the effect on both smoking participation and intensity and the indirect effect on alcohol consumption. Using data from the Everyday Life Aspects survey, for the period 2001-2007, we show that the introduction of smoke-free legislation in Italy significantly affected smoking behavior. We also document significant indirect effects on alcohol consumption for the main alcoholic beverage categories. A robustness analysis is also performed, to test the extent to which unobservable variables may bias our estimated parameters. Our results are then used to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of the anti-smoking legislation in Italy.

Luca Salmasi

Papers

Length of Stay: Price and Income Semi-Elasticities at Different Destinations in Italy

Investigating the poverty-obesity paradox in Europe

Socio-demographic determinants and access to prenatal care in Italy.

Fast-food consumption and body weight. Evidence from the UK

The role of anti-smoking legislation on cigarette and alcohol consumption habits in Italy