Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).

For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters.

Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

/pdf/the-global-methane-budget-2000-2017-mbxchwmkf5.pdf

The global methane budget 2000–2017

Gas hydrate, a frozen, naturally-occurring, and highly-concentrated form of methane, sequesters significant carbon in the global system and is stable only over a range of low-temperature and moderate-pressure conditions. Gas hydrate is widespread in the sediments of marine continental margins and permafrost areas, locations where ocean and atmospheric warming may perturb the hydrate stability field and lead to release of the sequestered methane into the overlying sediments and soils. Methane and methane-derived carbon that escape from sediments and soils and reach the atmosphere could exacerbate greenhouse warming. The synergy between warming climate and gas hydrate dissociation feeds a popular perception that global warming could drive catastrophic methane releases from the contemporary gas hydrate reservoir. Appropriate evaluation of the two sides of the climate-methane hydrate synergy requires assessing direct and indirect observational data related to gas hydrate dissociation phenomena and numerical models that track the interaction of gas hydrates/methane with the ocean and/or atmosphere. Methane hydrate is likely undergoing dissociation now on global upper continental slopes and on continental shelves that ring the Arctic Ocean. Many factors—the depth of the gas hydrates in sediments, strong sediment and water column sinks, and the inability of bubbles emitted at the seafloor to deliver methane to the sea-air interface in most cases—mitigate the impact of gas hydrate dissociation on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations though. There is no conclusive proof that hydrate-derived methane is reaching the atmosphere now, but more observational data and improved numerical models will better characterize the climate-hydrate synergy in the future.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016RG000534

The interaction of climate change and methane hydrates

Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2017RG000559

Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

Mass production of plastics started nearly 70 years ago and the production rate is expected to double over the next two decades. While serving many applications because of their durability, stability and low cost, plastics have deleterious effects on the environment. Plastic is known to release a variety of chemicals during degradation, which has a negative impact on biota. Here, we show that the most commonly used plastics produce two greenhouse gases, methane and ethylene, when exposed to ambient solar radiation. Polyethylene, which is the most produced and discarded synthetic polymer globally, is the most prolific emitter of both gases. We demonstrate that the production of trace gases from virgin low-density polyethylene increase with time, with rates at the end of a 212-day incubation of 5.8 nmol g-1 d-1 of methane, 14.5 nmol g-1 d-1 of ethylene, 3.9 nmol g-1 d-1 of ethane and 9.7 nmol g-1 d-1 of propylene. Environmentally aged plastics incubated in water for at least 152 days also produced hydrocarbon gases. In addition, low-density polyethylene emits these gases when incubated in air at rates ~2 times and ~76 times higher than when incubated in water for methane and ethylene, respectively. Our results show that plastics represent a heretofore unrecognized source of climate-relevant trace gases that are expected to increase as more plastic is produced and accumulated in the environment.

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Production of methane and ethylene from plastic in the environment

The current paradigm, widely incorporated in soil biogeochemical models, is that microbial methanogenesis can only occur in anoxic habitats. In contrast, here we show clear geochemical and biological evidence for methane production in well-oxygenated soils of a freshwater wetland. A comparison of oxic to anoxic soils reveal up to ten times greater methane production and nine times more methanogenesis activity in oxygenated soils. Metagenomic and metatranscriptomic sequencing recover the first near-complete genomes for a novel methanogen species, and show acetoclastic production from this organism was the dominant methanogenesis pathway in oxygenated soils. This organism, Candidatus Methanothrix paradoxum, is prevalent across methane emitting ecosystems, suggesting a global significance. Moreover, in this wetland, we estimate that up to 80% of methane fluxes could be attributed to methanogenesis in oxygenated soils. Together, our findings challenge a widely held assumption about methanogenesis, with significant ramifications for global methane estimates and Earth system modeling.

/pdf/methanogenesis-in-oxygenated-soils-is-a-substantial-fraction-4zxjtqx7ck.pdf

Methanogenesis in oxygenated soils is a substantial fraction of wetland methane emissions.

A lot of methane is emitted from oxygenated seawater, where its production should be inhibited. Seawater incubations and organic matter characterizations reveal that bacteria aerobically produce methane from phosphonates in organic matter. Biogenic methane is widely thought to be a product of archaeal methanogenesis, an anaerobic process that is inhibited or outcompeted by the presence of oxygen and sulfate1,2,3. Yet a large fraction of marine methane delivered to the atmosphere is produced in high-sulfate, fully oxygenated surface waters that have methane concentrations above atmospheric equilibrium values, an unexplained phenomenon referred to as the marine methane paradox4,5. Here we use nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to show that polysaccharide esters of three phosphonic acids are important constituents of dissolved organic matter in seawater from the North Pacific. In seawater and pure culture incubations, bacterial degradation of these dissolved organic matter phosphonates in the presence of oxygen releases methane, ethylene and propylene gas. Moreover, we found that in mutants of a methane-producing marine bacterium, Pseudomonas stutzeri, disrupted in the C–P lyase phosphonate degradation pathway, methanogenesis was also disabled, indicating that the C–P lyase pathway can catalyse methane production from marine dissolved organic matter. Finally, the carbon stable isotope ratio of methane emitted during our incubations agrees well with anomalous isotopic characteristics of seawater methane. We estimate that daily cycling of only about 0.25% of the organic matter phosphonate inventory would support the entire atmospheric methane flux at our study site. We conclude that aerobic bacterial degradation of phosphonate esters in dissolved organic matter may explain the marine methane paradox.

Marine methane paradox explained by bacterial degradation of dissolved organic matter

The La and the La-related protein (LARP) superfamily is a diverse class of RNA binding proteins involved in RNA processing, folding, and function. Larp7 binds to the abundant long noncoding 7SK RNA and is required for 7SK ribonucleoprotein (RNP) assembly and function. The 7SK RNP sequesters a pool of the positive transcription elongation factor b (P-TEFb) in an inactive state; on release, P-TEFb phosphorylates RNA Polymerase II to stimulate transcription elongation. Despite its essential role in transcription, limited structural information is available for the 7SK RNP, particularly for protein–RNA interactions. Larp7 contains an N-terminal La module that binds UUU-3′OH and a C-terminal atypical RNA recognition motif (xRRM) required for specific binding to 7SK and P-TEFb assembly. Deletion of the xRRM is linked to gastric cancer in humans. We report the 2.2-A X-ray crystal structure of the human La-related protein group 7 (hLarp7) xRRM bound to the 7SK stem-loop 4, revealing a unique binding interface. Contributions of observed interactions to binding affinity were investigated by mutagenesis and isothermal titration calorimetry. NMR 13C spin relaxation data and comparison of free xRRM, RNA, and xRRM–RNA structures show that the xRRM is preordered to bind a flexible loop 4. Combining structures of the hLarp7 La module and the xRRM–7SK complex presented here, we propose a structural model for Larp7 binding to the 7SK 3′ end and mechanism for 7SK RNP assembly. This work provides insight into how this domain contributes to 7SK recognition and assembly of the core 7SK RNP.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/28/E6457.full.pdf

Lucas D. Repeta

Papers

Marine methane paradox explained by bacterial degradation of dissolved organic matter

Structural basis for recognition of human 7SK long noncoding RNA by the La-related protein Larp7.