世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

This paper provides an introduction and "user guide" to Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs for empirical researchers. It presents the basic theory behind the research design, details when RD is likely to be valid or invalid given economic incentives, explains why it is considered a "quasi-experimental" design, and summarizes different ways (with their advantages and disadvantages) of estimating RD designs and the limitations of interpreting these estimates. Concepts are discussed using examples drawn from the growing body of empirical research using RD.

Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics

The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change

This paper provides an introduction and “user guide” to Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs for empirical researchers. It presents the basic theory behind the research design, details when RD is likely to be valid or invalid given economic incentives, explains why it is considered a “quasi-experimental” design, and summarizes different ways (with their advantages and disadvantages) of estimating RD designs and the limitations of interpreting these estimates. Concepts are discussed using examples drawn from the growing body of empirical research using RD. ( JEL C21, C31)

/pdf/regression-discontinuity-designs-in-economics-5foiogfcmd.pdf

Regression discontinuity designs in economics

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides access to information on a variety of topics related to the environment and strives to inform citizens of health risks. The EPA also has an extensive library network that consists of 26 libraries throughout the United States, which provide access to a plethora of information to EPA employees, scientists, and researchers. The EPA implemented a reorganization project to digitize their materials so they would be more accessible to a wider range of users, but this plan was drastically accelerated when the EPA was threatened with a budget cut. It chose to close and reduce the hours and services of some of their libraries. As a result, the agency was accused of denying users the “right to know” by making information unavailable, not providing an adequate strategic plan, and discarding vital materials. This case study explores the background of the digitization project, the practices implemented, and the critiques of the project.

/pdf/the-environmental-protection-agency-3gx4opzrjm.pdf

The Environmental Protection Agency

In 1989, the government of Mexico City introduced a program, Hoy No Circula, that bans most drivers from using their vehicles one weekday per week on the basis of the last digit of the vehicle’s license plate. This article measures the effect of the driving restrictions on air quality using high‐frequency measures from monitoring stations. Across pollutants and specifications there is no evidence that the restrictions have improved air quality. Evidence from additional sources indicates that the restrictions led to an increase in the total number of vehicles in circulation as well as a change in composition toward high‐emissions vehicles.

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/ldavis/Davis%20JPE%202008.pdf

The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City

In 1989, the government of Mexico City introduced a program, Hoy No Circula, that bans most drivers from using their vehicles one weekday per week on the basis of the last digit of the vehicle’s license plate. This article measures the effect of the driving restrictions on air quality using high-frequency measures from monitoring stations. Across pollutants and specifications there is no evidence that the restrictions have improved air quality. Evidence from additional sources indicates that the restrictions led to an increase in the total number of vehicles in circulation as well as a change in composition toward high-emissions vehicles.

As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/19/5962.full.pdf

Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming

Regulatory oversight of toxic emissions from industrial plants and understanding about these emissions’ impacts are in their infancy. Applying a research design based on the openings and closings of 1,600 industrial plants to rich data on housing markets and infant health, we find that: toxic air emissions affect air quality only within 1 mile of the plant; plant openings lead to 11 percent declines in housing values within 0.5 mile or a loss of about $4.25 million for these households; and a plant’s operation is associated with a roughly 3 percent increase in the probability of low birthweight within 1 mile. (JEL I12, L60, Q52, Q53, Q58, R23, R31) Industrial plants that emit toxic pollutants are ubiquitous in the United States today, and many lie in close proximity to major population centers. These plants emit nearly 4 billion pounds of toxic pollutants in the United States annually, including 80,000 different chemical compounds. 1 Whereas criteria air pollutants like particulate matter have been regulated for decades, regulation of airborne toxic pollutants remains in its infancy. The nascent state of regulation of these emissions is controversial because, on the one hand, most of the chemicals emitted have never undergone any form of toxicity testing (US Department of Health and Human Services 2010) 2 , and, on the other hand, they are widely believed to cause cancer, birth defects, and damage to the brain and reproductive systems (Centers

/pdf/environmental-health-risks-and-housing-values-evidence-from-5bb7xsk3ew.pdf

Environmental Health Risks and Housing Values: Evidence from 1,600 Toxic Plant Openings and Closings

This paper measures the impact of an outbreak of pediatric leukemia on local housing values. A model of location choice is used to describe conditions under which the gradient of the hedonic price function with respect to pediatric leukemia risk is equal to household marginal willingness to pay to avoid risk. This equalizing differential is estimated using property-level sales records from a county in Nevada where residents recently experienced a severe increase in pediatric leukemia. Housing prices are compared before and after the increase with a nearby county acting as a control group. The variation in health risk over time makes it possible to control for unobserved differences across locations. In addition, because many houses were sold repeatedly during the sample period it is possible to control for property-specific heterogeneity. The results indicate that housing values decreased 15.6 percent during the period of maximum risk. Results are similar for different measures of risk and across houses of different sizes. Using lifetime estimates of risk derived from a Bayesian learning process the results imply that the statistical value of pediatric leukemia is $5.6 million. These estimates provide some of the first market-based estimates of the value of health for children.

Lucas W. Davis

Papers

The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City

The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City

Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming

Environmental Health Risks and Housing Values: Evidence from 1,600 Toxic Plant Openings and Closings

The Effect of Health Risk on Housing Values: Evidence from a Cancer Cluster.